3:30 Bath
This Class 6 handicap over the minimum trip at Bath brings together ten limited performers on good ground. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Recon Mission just heading the list on 53, followed closely by Stapleford Park on 52 and a trio on 48. Course form will be important given the venue's quirks, and several runners have shown they can be competitive at this level without winning often.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners in the field. Symbol Of Hope and Wedgewood both tend to make the running or race prominently, which sets up the likelihood of an honest gallop that could collapse in the final furlong. That pace shape poses the key question of whether the hold-up horses, of which there are several including the selection, can time their late efforts to pick up the pieces.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Recon Mission KTB Selection53/100
Recon Mission is a limited performer who has been placed on his last three starts and knows this track well, having finished in the first four on all four runs here. He has won at today's trip but his overall strike-rate is modest and he has taken a long time to add to that sole success on good ground. The Tony Carroll yard has an 11% strike rate at Bath from 856 runs while Luke Morris is also familiar with the venue from his own 11% strike rate here. Usually held up, Recon Mission produces his effort late and that run-style could be ideally suited if the strong pace materialises as expected. His recent form figures of -66533 underline his consistency at this level without quite getting his head in front.
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2Stapleford Park52/100
Stapleford Park is a limited performer who has shown bits of ability on his better days but remains winless after 17 starts. He has been placed over today's trip without managing to get his head in front and has not troubled the judge on three previous runs on good ground. The Michael Attwater yard has a solid 13% strike rate at Bath from 157 runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be well positioned if the race falls apart late as the strong pace shape suggests. His recent form of 672747 shows the occasional flash of promise but also the difficulty he finds in seeing races out strongly.
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3Symbol Of Hope48/100
Symbol Of Hope is a limited performer who has been around a long time and remains competitive at this level. He has won three times at Bath from 27 runs and holds a solid record on good ground with two wins and six places from ten starts. Dropping back to 5f is an interesting move as he has won at the trip before though his recent form has been mixed. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is likely to be one of those setting the strong gallop that could unravel late. The Grace Harris yard posts a 9% strike rate at the track while Callum Hutchinson has a similar 9% record here.
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4Jackie Brown48/100
Jackie Brown is a limited performer who has won once from two starts over this course and trip. He drops back to 5f having last run over 6f, with one win from ten attempts at the shorter distance. The Adrian Wintle stable has a solid 16% strike rate at Bath from 261 runs and Finley Marsh is close behind with 15% from his rides at the venue. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he looks the type to benefit if the front-runners go too hard early. His recent form of 953216 includes a win at this level and suggests he retains enough ability to feature.
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5Mart48/100
Mart is a limited performer who has shown bits of ability on his day but is now 0-50 and finds winning hard. He has two wins from seven starts on good ground and has scored at this trip, though the first-time headgear is an unknown. The D Donovan yard has a solid 15% strike rate at Bath from a small sample of 13 runs while Ryan Kavanagh has a 13% record here. Usually held up with high confidence in that assessment, he will be looking to come from off the strong pace that is forecast. Recent form of 643602 shows he can be competitive without quite landing the spoils.
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6Wedgewood46/100
Wedgewood is a limited class performer who has won over this trip and at this track from his seven runs here. Recent form is patchy but he has been competitive on good ground without winning. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he will help ensure the strong gallop that is expected.
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7Call Time46/100
Call Time is a limited class performer who has run to form on his last two starts and has the benefit of a low draw. He has won at this trip and at this track from seven attempts, though his record on good ground shows two places from eight runs without a victory. Usually held up, he should be on the premises if the leaders fold.
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8Coolagh Magic42/100
Coolagh Magic is a limited 10-year-old with a modest record and plenty of miles on the clock. He has won twice at this trip but his recent form is mixed and he has been placed just once from four runs on good ground. This is his first visit to Bath and the yard has a 0% strike rate at the track from 11 attempts.
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9Fancy Dancer41/100
Fancy Dancer is a limited performer who has won over this trip and at this track from just two runs here. Recent form is patchy but the placed effort last time suggests she can still be competitive in this grade. Usually held up, she will be hoping the strong pace collapses in her favour.
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10Hi Hoh Tonto38/100
Hi Hoh Tonto is a limited performer who has shown very little spark in recent runs and sits on a career-low mark. He has placed at today's trip in the past but is 0-3 on good ground and makes his first visit to Bath. Recent form of 80-605 offers little encouragement.
KTB verdict
Recon Mission is the KTB Selection and arrives in form having been placed on his last three starts while possessing solid course knowledge from four visits to Bath. His hold-up style looks well suited to the strong pace that is likely to unfold, and the combination of Tony Carroll and Luke Morris at a track where both have respectable records adds to the appeal. The main dangers are likely to come from those who can also benefit from the shape, notably the fellow hold-up performers Stapleford Park and Jackie Brown, along with the front-running Symbol Of Hope who could prove hard to peg back if he gets an easy time on the lead.
KTB Selection Recon Mission
This is the narrative read of the 3:30 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bath results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best course record at Bath?
Symbol Of Hope has won three times at Bath from 27 runs and Recon Mission has finished in the first four on all four runs here.
How does the strong pace shape affect the hold-up horses?
The strong pace could collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses such as Recon Mission, Stapleford Park, Jackie Brown, Mart, Call Time, Coolagh Magic, Fancy Dancer and Hi Hoh Tonto.
Which runners are expected to set the pace?
Symbol Of Hope and Wedgewood both tend to make the running or race on the pace.
What is the significance of the first-time headgear on Mart?
The first-time headgear is an unknown on a horse who is 0-50 and finds winning hard.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Bath among those represented?
Adrian Wintle has a 16% strike rate at Bath from 261 runs, with D Donovan on 15% from a small sample of 13 runs.
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