3:05 Ascot
The Queen's Vase is a Group 2 contest over 1m6f34y at Ascot on good to firm ground, featuring an 11-runner field of three-year-olds. Most of the runners are stepping up markedly in trip, which adds a layer of unknown to their stamina reserves, while several are also making their first appearance in this class. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Mr Colonel edging ahead on 62, followed closely by Del Maro on 60 and then a cluster around the mid-50s and 50s, suggesting a race where progressive types with stamina to prove will clash.
How the race shapes up
With several prominent runners and no obvious out-and-out front-runner in the data, the pace shape looks likely to be on the steady side early on before the stamina test intensifies from halfway. Mr Colonel tends to race prominently from draw 10, while Del Maro from stall 3 and Wareeth from stall 1 could also be forward, potentially setting up a race where those with proven staying power or efficient cruising speed will come to the fore. The key question is which of these lightly raced sorts will handle the new distance best as the field stretches out up the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Mr Colonel KTB Selection62/100Mr Colonel is a useful performer who has shown steady progress with placed efforts in strong company and a recent win.
- 2Del Maro60/100Del Maro is a useful performer who has shown steady progress and holds strong course connections through his powerful yard.
- 3Port Of Spain54/100Useful performer who showed smart form when winning a Group 3 at the Curragh last summer before mixing it at a higher level.
- 4Ravenspire52/100Ravenspire has won both starts to date and steps up from 1m4f to an untested 1m6f.
- 5Wareeth52/100Useful performer who has won two of his three starts.
- 6Limestone50/100Limestone has won both starts this season after finishing placed in three runs last year and holds a useful level of ability according to the ratings.
- 7Asakir50/100Asakir is a useful 3-year-old with progressive form shown by a placed effort last time over 1m5f.
- 8Galiyan50/100Galiyan showed ability when winning a 1m4.5f maiden on debut and backed that up with a solid fourth in a subsequent conditions race.
- 9Point Of Law48/100Point Of Law has shown useful ability in two starts so far, finishing second on debut before winning his next outing over 1m2f.
- 10Ranga Tang45/100Ranga Tang is a fair 3 year old with solid recent form including a win and a third on his last two starts.
- 11Magnetude42/100Magnetude is a fair 3 year old with solid recent form including two wins from his last three starts.
The contenders
Mr Colonel KTB Fit 62/100
Mr Colonel is a useful performer who has shown steady progress, finishing placed in strong company before landing a recent win. He acts on good to firm ground having scored once and placed twice from three starts on it. The step up to 1m6f34y for the first time today poses a fresh question of his stamina, while first-time headgear is now fitted. Trainer Richard & Peter Fahey hold a 50% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 12.19 from two runs, though jockey Colin Keane is on a 5% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.58 from 99 rides. Overall the combination has modest Ascot records, yet Mr Colonel enters in good heart with recent form figures of 225-13.
Del Maro KTB Fit 60/100
Del Maro is a useful performer who has shown steady progress and holds strong course connections through his powerful yard. He steps up to 1m6f for the first time today having last run over 1m3f, which asks a fresh question of his stamina. The yard boasts a 15% strike rate at Ascot from 385 runs with an A/E of 0.85, while William Buick operates at a 14% strike rate from 836 rides with an A/E of 0.93. Del Maro is competitive on good to firm having been placed on both starts on the surface without winning. His recent form reads 23-142 and he is drawn in stall 3.
Port Of Spain KTB Fit 54/100
Port Of Spain is a useful performer who showed smart form when winning a Group 3 at the Curragh last summer before mixing it at a higher level. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 1m2f and that asks a fresh question. Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore have solid records at Ascot, the trainer on 14% from 891 runs with an A/E of 0.86 and the jockey on 14% from 1219 rides with an A/E of 0.77. This is a lightly-raced horse with only seven career starts and recent form of 1537-5. He remains unproven on good to firm ground.
Ravenspire KTB Fit 52/100
Ravenspire has won both starts to date and steps up from 1m4f to an untested 1m6f. The useful 3-year-old handles good to firm ground, having scored at the first attempt on it. He remains lightly raced with scope to improve as he tackles this new distance. Karl Burke's 9% strike rate from 320 runs at Ascot and Clifford Lee's 8% from 93 rides offer no particular edge here. Recent form reads 11 and he is drawn in stall 7 while stepping up in class.
Wareeth KTB Fit 52/100
Wareeth is a useful performer who has won two of his three starts. He steps up markedly in trip today from 1m2f and that leaves him with a question to answer at this new distance. Archie Watson has a 6% strike rate at Ascot from 188 runs with an A/E of 0.75, while Tom Marquand operates at an 8% strike rate from 425 rides with an A/E of 0.74. Wareeth is unproven on good to firm ground. His recent form reads 161 and he is drawn in stall 1 while stepping up in class.
The rest of the field
LimestoneKTB Fit 50/100
Limestone has won both starts this season after finishing placed in three runs last year and holds a useful level of ability according to the ratings. He steps up in trip again today having last run over 1m5f and that distance increase is an unknown. The yard has a modest 4% strike rate from 140 runs at Ascot while the jockey is 2% from 54 rides here. Recent form reads 321-11 and he is unproven on good to firm.
AsakirKTB Fit 50/100
Asakir is a useful 3-year-old with progressive form shown by a placed effort last time over 1m5f. This represents a fresh trip question today and first-time headgear is also applied. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 5% strike rate at Ascot from modest sample sizes. Recent form reads 312 and he is unproven on good to firm.
GaliyanKTB Fit 50/100
Galiyan showed ability when winning a 1m4.5f maiden on debut and backed that up with a solid fourth in a subsequent conditions race. He steps up in trip now to 1m6f which asks a fresh question of him as a lightly-raced 3-year-old. The yard has a 9 percent strike-rate at Ascot from over 1,000 runs while Murphy is operating at an 11 percent strike-rate from 514 rides here. Recent form reads 41 and he is unproven on good to firm while stepping up in class.
Point Of LawKTB Fit 48/100
Point Of Law has shown useful ability in two starts so far, finishing second on debut before winning his next outing over 1m2f. He steps up markedly in trip today to 1m6f which asks a fresh question of him. The Gosden yard has a 14% strike rate at Ascot from 284 runs while Doyle is operating at 12% from 605 rides here. Recent form reads 21 and he is unproven on good to firm while stepping up in class.
Ranga TangKTB Fit 45/100
Ranga Tang is a fair 3 year old with solid recent form including a win and a third on his last two starts. He steps up in trip today having not been asked this far before which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer James Owen has a 6% strike rate from 34 runs at Ascot while jockey Cieren Fallon posts a 12% strike rate from 111 rides here. Recent form reads 542-31 and he acts on good to firm while stepping up in class.
MagnetudeKTB Fit 42/100
Magnetude is a fair 3 year old with solid recent form including two wins from his last three starts. He steps up in trip today having never tried beyond 1m4½f which asks a fresh question of him. The yard and jockey both have modest strike rates at Ascot. Recent form reads 43-121 and he has one run on good to firm without placing while stepping up in class.
KTB verdict
Mr Colonel is the KTB Selection. He comes into the race having shown steady progress with placed efforts in strong company and a recent win, acts on good to firm, and now tries the new trip in first-time headgear. The Fahey yard's strong Ascot strike rate gives some encouragement despite the modest combined records with Keane. The main dangers are Del Maro, whose powerful yard connections and proven competitiveness on the surface make him a live contender as he tackles the distance, and Port Of Spain, who brings smart prior form and the O'Brien-Moore axis even if the trip and ground are unknowns.
KTB Selection Mr Colonel
This is the narrative read of the 3:05 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its first start in headgear?
Mr Colonel is fitted with first-time headgear, as is Asakir.
How many runners are stepping up in class for this Group 2?
Six runners are stepping up in class: Port Of Spain, Ravenspire, Wareeth, Galiyan, Point Of Law and Ranga Tang, along with Magnetude.
Which horses have previous experience of good to firm ground?
Mr Colonel has one win from three starts on good to firm, Del Maro has been placed twice from two runs on it, Ravenspire has won his only start on it, Ranga Tang has won his only start on it, and Magnetude has one run on it without placing.
Who holds the strongest Ascot trainer record in the field?
Richard & Peter Fahey hold a 50% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 12.19 from two runs.
Which horses have no course form on record?
All 11 runners have no course form on record at Ascot.
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