2:33 Downpatrick
This Randox Rated Hurdle over 2m1f165y at Downpatrick on good ground brings together a compact but competitive field of seven. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with the principals all rated in the low-to-mid 60s, underlining the quality on show and the likelihood of a genuine test. Gordon Elliott holds two of the top three in the ratings and has a strong historical record at the track, while several runners bring recent winning form or course placings into the equation.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is genuinely run with high confidence, featuring a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types. Trasna Na Pairce is expected to take them along from the front, with Chanceawetmorning and Shinnhill racing prominently and applying pressure. This sets up a fair test that will ask questions of the held-up runners such as Cosmos d'Ainay, Malbay Madness and Cap Bernat, with the key question being which of the prominent pair can sustain their effort or whether the closers will be able to land a telling blow late.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Chanceawetmorning KTB Selection66/100High-class on ratings and recent form that includes three wins from his last five starts.
- 2Cosmos d'Ainay65/100Cosmos d'Ainay is a high-class performer with a solid recent record that includes a win at this track last time.
- 3Malbay Madness61/100Malbay Madness arrives in strong form with two wins from his last three starts and already has a course success here from just two visits.
- 4Shinnhill59/100Useful performer who won over this trip on his only attempt and has already scored at Downpatrick.
- 5Trasna Na Pairce55/100High-class performer on his day with solid placed efforts in competitive company this season.
- 6Tribal Moon45/100Useful performer who has shown little spark in three runs this year and was well beaten both previous attempts here.
- 7Cap Bernat44/100Cap Bernat has shown some ability around this track, finishing second twice from six runs, and has been competitive on good ground without winning.
The contenders
Chanceawetmorning KTB Fit 66/100
Chanceawetmorning is high-class on ratings and brings recent form that includes three wins from his last five starts. He has been below form on both runs at Downpatrick though and remains winless in two tries at this trip. Gordon Elliott has an 18% strike rate at the track from a huge sample of 931 runs while the booking of Josh Williamson, who has a 21% strike rate and 1.36 A/E from 19 rides here, adds further help. The 5 lb claimer is a positive and the horse usually races handily on or close to the lead. He has been placed twice from four starts on good ground without winning.
Cosmos d'Ainay KTB Fit 65/100
Cosmos d'Ainay is a high-class performer with a solid recent record that includes a win at this track last time out. He has already won at today's trip from a single attempt and holds a strong record on good ground with two wins from four starts. Gordon Elliott's 18% strike rate at Downpatrick from a huge sample adds further confidence to his chance, as does the booking of Jack Kennedy who has an 18% strike rate at the venue. The horse is usually held up and produces its effort late, which should suit the expected genuinely-run pace. He has no previous course form beyond that recent victory.
Malbay Madness KTB Fit 61/100
Malbay Madness arrives in strong form with two wins from his last three starts and already has a course success here from just two visits. He is high-class on the ratings and has a solid record on good ground with two wins from nine starts. The yard's 9% strike rate at Downpatrick from 157 runs is modest, as is the jockey's 4% strike rate from 101 rides, both worth noting. First-time headgear is introduced as an unknown while he steps up in trip for the first time in a while. He is usually held up and produces its effort late.
Shinnhill KTB Fit 59/100
Shinnhill is a useful performer who won over this trip on his only attempt and has already scored at Downpatrick from two visits. Recent form is patchy but the course record and a win from three starts on good ground both count in his favour. The trainer has a modest 8% strike rate at the track from 66 runs which tempers expectations, though the jockey has a 15% strike rate and positive 1.35 A/E from 34 rides here. He usually races handily on or close to the lead, which should see him involved in the expected prominent battle.
The rest of the field
Trasna Na PairceKTB Fit 55/100
Trasna Na Pairce is a high-class performer on his day with solid placed efforts in competitive company this season. He steps up in trip for the first time today while sporting first-time headgear, both of which ask fresh questions. Henry De Bromhead has a 16% strike rate at Downpatrick from 163 runs while the jockey has a 10% strike rate from 155 rides here. He tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Tribal MoonKTB Fit 45/100
Tribal Moon is a useful performer who has shown little spark in three runs this year and was well beaten on both previous attempts here. He steps up markedly in trip today having been campaigned over much shorter distances recently, which asks a fresh question, while first-time headgear is also a new variable. The trainer has a modest 7% strike rate at Downpatrick from 201 runs and the horse is usually held up.
Cap BernatKTB Fit 44/100
Cap Bernat has shown some ability around this track, finishing second twice from six runs, and has been competitive on good ground without winning. He has not scored for a long time, looks exposed at age 13, and has failed to place in two tries at this trip. First-time headgear is an unknown and the trainer has a 0% strike rate from 10 runs here. He is usually held up.
KTB verdict
Chanceawetmorning is the KTB Selection. He is high-class on ratings with three wins from his last five starts and benefits from the 5 lb claimer plus Elliott's solid record at the track. The selection has been below form on both previous runs here and remains winless at the trip, but the prominent run-style should see him well placed in what is set to be a genuinely-run race. Main dangers are Cosmos d'Ainay, who brings a recent course win and a strong record on good ground, and Malbay Madness, who is in good heart with a course success to his name, though the first-time headgear and step up in trip add unknowns.
KTB Selection Chanceawetmorning
This is the narrative read of the 2:33 Downpatrick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Downpatrick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up markedly in trip having been campaigned over much shorter distances?
Tribal Moon
How many wins has Cosmos d'Ainay recorded on good ground from four starts?
Two
What is the trainer's strike rate at Downpatrick for the handler of Malbay Madness?
9% from 157 runs
Which runner has won over today's trip on its only attempt at the distance?
Shinnhill
How many placed efforts has Cap Bernat recorded from six runs at Downpatrick?
Two seconds
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