3:10 Navan
The 3:10 at Navan is a 5f handicap on good ground featuring an eight-runner field where the lack of any obvious front-runner points to a steadily-run, tactical contest. KTB's Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with the principals separated by only seven points, underlining how competitive the race looks on paper. Several runners boast previous success at the track or over the trip, but yard form at Navan is mixed and the race is likely to be decided by which of the hold-up performers can time their effort best in a race that lacks early pace.
How the race shapes up
With no confirmed leader in the field and every runner showing a preference for being held up, the pace shape is expected to be steady rather than searching. This tactical affair should favour those who can be handy enough to pounce when the sprint develops inside the final two furlongs. The key question is whether any horse can overcome the hold-up bias to produce a winning late run, or if one of the more forward-placed runners can steal a march in a race run at a crawl early on.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Erosandpsyche KTB Selection60/100
Erosandpsyche is a useful performer who has run well at this track before, finishing third here on his penultimate start. He has won four times at this trip but his recent form has been patchy and the yard's record at Navan is poor. The 8-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late, a style that could suit the anticipated steady pace. The trainer has a 3% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.31 from 34 runs, while the jockey has a 14% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.57 from 14 rides. He has two wins from 14 starts on good ground and has shown up in two previous visits to Navan without winning.
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2Thunderbear55/100
Thunderbear is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track. Dropping back to 5f looks a sensible move after his last run over 6f, and he has solid placed form on good ground. The 6-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. The trainer is still seeking a first Navan winner from only five attempts with a 0% strike rate and A/E of 0, while the jockey has a 9% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.19 from 68 rides. He has won once from three starts at the course and has two wins from 12 starts on good ground.
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3Amiata54/100
Amiata is a fair 3-year-old with a solid career record that includes two wins at this track from three runs. He has won twice over today's 5f trip and acts on good ground, though the drop back from 6f asks a fresh question. The colt is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer and jockey both have established records at Navan around the 13-14% mark, with the yard on 13% strike rate and A/E of 0.84 from 668 runs, and the jockey on 14% with an A/E of 0.83 from 582 rides. He has two wins from six starts on good ground.
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4Namiid53/100
Namiid is a fair 3-year-old with a solid record at this trip, including one win from 11 starts, and has shown consistent placed form on good ground. He has already won at Navan from five runs here and his recent form of 31423 suggests he remains competitive at this level. The gelding is usually held up and produces his effort late. The yard has a 12% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.91 from 251 runs while the jockey sits on 9% with an A/E of 0.74 from 266 rides. He has been placed on three of seven starts on good ground.
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5Allsortz47/100
Allsortz is a fair sort who has won once over this trip from four attempts but is dropping back from 6f today. Placed once from five runs on good ground and holds a solid recent form line of 313074. The trainer has a modest 5% strike rate here from 103 runs with an A/E of 0.57 while the jockey fares better with 9% from 115 rides and an A/E of 1.12.
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6Gotta Catch'em All45/100
Gotta Catch'em All is a modest performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins. Has won over course and distance at Navan and acts on good ground with two wins and five places from ten runs. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate here from 520 runs carries an A/E of 0.54 while the jockey's record is closer to par at 6% with an A/E of 0.96 from 109 rides.
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7Dandyville43/100
Dandyville is a modest performer with a poor recent record of five straight defeats and no placed effort in 2024. Has only run once over this trip and showed nothing at Navan on his sole visit here. The trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at the track while the yard's small-sample A/E of 1.01 from 55 runs offers a faint positive.
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8Moltophino42/100
Moltophino is a fair performer who has shown his best form at this track with a second and a fifth from two runs. He drops back to 5f today having been out of the frame in both previous attempts at the trip and his record on good ground is modest with just one win from 14 starts. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 15 runs at Navan while the jockey operates at a 7% strike rate from 740 rides here.
KTB verdict
Erosandpsyche is the KTB Selection. He brings useful ability, prior placed form at Navan and a record of four wins at the trip, and the steadily-run race should play to his strengths as a hold-up performer. His main dangers are Thunderbear, who drops back to his optimum trip having already won over course and distance, and the progressive 3-year-olds Amiata and Namiid, both of whom have strong course form and recent competitiveness. The race looks tight on the KTB Fit scores and the tactical shape may well decide which of these hold-up types can strike at the right moment.
KTB Selection Erosandpsyche
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 5 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Erosandpsyche | 9/2 | BetTom |
| Thunderbear | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Amiata | 3/1 | Bet365 |
| Namiid | 4/1 | BetTom |
| Allsortz | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Gotta Catch'em All | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Dandyville | 66/1 | BetTom |
| Moltophino | 7/2 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 3:10 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent course form at Navan?
Amiata has won twice at the track from three runs while Erosandpsyche has finished third here on his penultimate start.
How many of the field have won over the 5f trip?
Erosandpsyche has won four times at this trip, Thunderbear has won over the trip, Amiata has won twice over 5f, Namiid has one win from 11 starts at the trip, Allsortz has won once over the trip and Gotta Catch'em All has won over course and distance.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Navan in this race?
G M Lyons has a 13% strike rate at Navan from 668 runs while J P Murtagh has 12% from 251 runs.
What is the expected pace scenario and how might it affect the hold-up runners?
The race lacks a leader and is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays, which could suit the multiple hold-up performers if they can time their efforts late.
Which horse is dropping back in trip and why might it suit?
Thunderbear is dropping back to 5f after his last run over 6f, which looks a sensible move, while Allsortz and Moltophino are also dropping back from 6f.
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