3:45 Navan
This Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden over 1m30y at Navan on good ground brings together a field of 21, the majority of whom arrive with limited experience or modest form. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Lookingforarainbow heading the numbers on 57, just ahead of Ballysax Boo on 55 and a trio on 50. With no obvious front-runner the race is expected to be tactical, and the supplied trainer and jockey course figures underline how few yards or riders are operating significantly above par at this venue.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of any natural leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy early will pay. Most principals and field runners are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the key question is whether those who can track the pace without using up too much energy will be best placed to strike in the straight. Low draws look advantageous on a track where early position often matters, while wide stalls could prove costly in a race likely to be decided by timing rather than raw speed.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Lookingforarainbow KTB Selection57/100
Lookingforarainbow is a fair performer who showed steady progress across her three runs last season, finishing a solid third on debut before two placed efforts at maiden level. She steps up to 1m today which asks a fresh question having last run over 7f. The yard holds an 18% strike rate at Navan from 57 runs while Gavin Ryan operates at 6% from 190 rides here. She has been placed once from one run on good ground and is drawn in stall 1. Held up in her races so far, she usually produces her effort late though that assessment rests on limited evidence. The KTB Fit score of 57 marks her out as the selection.
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2Ballysax Boo55/100
Ballysax Boo showed little on debut when finishing ninth of ten over this trip at Navan. The yard has a modest 4% strike rate here from 23 runs. With only one run on the clock and a small sample on this ground the form must be treated with caution. She is drawn in stall 10. The KTB Fit score of 55 keeps her in the conversation but the overall profile remains light on positives.
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3Zarenakarena50/100
Zarenakarena is lightly raced with just two runs and poor form figures of 90 so far. She drops back in trip to 1m having been well held over 1m2f last time. The yard has an 11% strike rate from 45 runs at Navan. Drawn in stall 3, she is a held-up type who usually produces her effort late though that reading is based on limited evidence. The KTB Fit score of 50 reflects a profile that still has plenty to prove.
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4The Black Lodge50/100
The Black Lodge is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. Pedigree and sales background are the only clues available and the low data confidence means any firm view would be guesswork. The trainer has no recorded runners at Navan while Wesley Joyce has an 8% strike rate from 115 rides here. Drawn in stall 6, the KTB Fit score of 50 leaves her in the mix on paper but with no form on the board she remains an unknown quantity.
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5Amazing Force50/100
Amazing Force is lightly raced after just one poor run over 7f last year so the form tells us almost nothing. The yard and jockey both have modest strike rates at Navan that sit close to their overall figures. She steps up to 1m today which asks a fresh question of a horse with very limited data overall. Drawn in stall 20, she is unproven on good ground. The KTB Fit score of 50 reflects the scant information available.
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6Elmakaya49/100
Elmakaya is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning. The wide draw in stall 13 is a clear negative on a track where getting a good early position often matters. The yard and jockey both have established but below-par records at Navan.
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7Flower Forest48/100
Flower Forest has shown ordinary form in two starts to date, finishing fourth then fifth without suggesting she is anything out of the ordinary. The yard has a solid 23% strike rate at Navan from a huge sample while Lordan is operating at a more modest 8%. Stepping up to an untested 1m poses a fresh question and with so little evidence overall this lightly-raced filly must be treated with caution.
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8Almost Okay47/100
Almost Okay is a debutant with limited information available. The pedigree and sales background offer the only real clues to his ability, while the yard's modest 7% strike-rate at Navan from 127 runs suggests they rarely fire first time here. Neve Bennett is still seeking her first winner at the track from eight rides.
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9Moll's Gap47/100
Moll's Gap is a newcomer from the J P Murtagh yard, which has a solid 12% strike rate at Navan from 251 runs. The jockey Jamie Powell is less established here with a 6% strike rate from 84 rides. With no racecourse form available, the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
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10Divine Legend47/100
Divine Legend is a modest performer who has shown some ability in four starts, finishing second on his penultimate run before a respectable fourth last time. She steps up in trip today for a yard with a solid 12% strike rate at Navan from a big sample. The jockey is operating at a 9% strike rate here from plenty of rides.
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11Little Sure Shot45/100
Little Sure Shot is a modest performer who has shown bits of promise on his last two starts. She steps up in trip today for a yard with a solid 10% strike rate at Navan from a big sample. The jockey is operating at an 11% strike rate here too but the wide draw in stall 18 adds a clear negative.
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12Joyous Heart45/100
Joyous Heart is a fair performer who showed little in three runs last season, finishing no better than fifth. The trip looks on the sharp side judged on that initial form and the yard's modest recent record here adds little encouragement. The jockey has a 7% strike rate from 132 rides at Navan.
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13My Shayla45/100
My Shayla placed second on debut then improved to finish a close second again last time, both runs over this trip. The yard has a modest 5% strike rate from 103 runs at Navan while the jockey records a solid 9% from 115 rides here. With only two runs in total the form has to be treated cautiously.
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14Susie's Angel44/100
Susie's Angel showed only modest form when finishing sixth on debut over 7f. She now steps up in trip to a distance she has never tried, which asks a fresh question of her. The trainer's poor 2% strike rate from 44 runs at Navan adds to the negatives on a day when the small sample overall means this one is best read with caution.
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15Apple Sponge44/100
Apple Sponge is a debutant with little known form so the assessment rests on pedigree and sales background. The trainer has a modest 2% strike rate from 64 runs at Navan. The jockey records a fair 8% strike rate from 110 rides at the track.
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16Nautic Star44/100
Nautic Star is a modest performer who has been consistent since his debut, finishing in the first three on his last four starts including two placed efforts at this trip. Drawn widest of all in stall 14 which is a clear negative on a track where low numbers are usually favoured. The trainer and jockey both have solid if unspectacular records at Navan.
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17Jolie Cailin43/100
Jolie Cailin showed only modest promise when fifth on her sole start over this trip. The yard has an 8% strike rate from 158 runs at Navan while the jockey is operating at 3% from 124 rides here. With just one run on the board overall the form has to be treated with real caution.
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18Emberelle42/100
Emberelle is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The yard has a modest 4% strike rate at Navan from a big sample. Keane is more established here with a 14% strike rate from plenty of rides.
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19Dandymaria42/100
Dandymaria is a modest performer who has shown mixed form in three runs to date, finishing a fair fourth on her most recent start. She steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question of her. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Navan from 344 runs while the jockey is operating at 6% from 452 rides here.
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20Lady In The Gods41/100
Lady In The Gods is a lightly raced filly with just two runs behind her and a modest start to her career when finishing fourth of 14 last time. The trainer has a poor record at Navan and the wide draw in stall 12 is far from ideal. The jockey's modest strike rate here adds to the negatives on a day when the small sample makes any firm conclusions risky.
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21Colpe Cross37/100
Colpe Cross is a modest performer who has shown steady placed form in three starts, finishing second on his most recent outing. She drops back sharply in trip today to 1m which asks a fresh question. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 43 runs at Navan while the jockey operates at a 10% strike rate from 677 rides here.
KTB verdict
Lookingforarainbow is the KTB Selection. She showed steady progression last term, culminating in placed efforts at maiden level, and the step up to 1m looks within range while the yard's 18% strike rate at Navan provides encouragement. The low draw and ability to come from off the pace in a steadily-run race are further pluses. Main dangers are the consistent but draw-compromised Nautic Star and Elmakaya, along with any of the more promising debutants or lightly-raced types who can improve past her on their return.
KTB Selection Lookingforarainbow
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:26 UTC, 5 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Lookingforarainbow | 6/1 | William Hill |
| Ballysax Boo | 150/1 | BetMGM |
| Zarenakarena | 150/1 | BetMGM |
| The Black Lodge | 100/1 | BetTom |
| Amazing Force | 150/1 | BetTom |
| Elmakaya | 5/1 | BetTom |
| Flower Forest | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| Almost Okay | 80/1 | BetTom |
| Moll's Gap | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Divine Legend | 9/1 | BetMGM |
| Little Sure Shot | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Joyous Heart | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| My Shayla | 5/1 | BetTom |
| Susie's Angel | 28/1 | BetTom |
| Apple Sponge | 150/1 | BetTom |
| Nautic Star | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Jolie Cailin | 40/1 | Bet365 |
| Emberelle | 18/1 | BetMGM |
| Dandymaria | 18/1 | BetMGM |
| Lady In The Gods | 150/1 | BetMGM |
| Colpe Cross | 20/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 3:45 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why does the pace shape favour being handy?
The race lacks a leader and is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which runners are most disadvantaged by their draw?
Elmakaya in stall 13, Nautic Star in stall 14, Little Sure Shot in stall 18, Susie's Angel in stall 19 and Apple Sponge in stall 21 face clear negatives on a track where getting a good early position often matters.
How many principals are held-up types?
Lookingforarainbow, Zarenakarena and most of the field runners are held up and usually produce their effort late.
Which trainer has the strongest Navan record among the principals?
Donnacha Aidan O'Brien has an 18% strike rate at Navan from 57 runs.
Which horse has the most placed form at this trip without winning?
Elmakaya has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning, with three placings from four runs on good ground.
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