3:15 Nottingham
This Class 4 EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 6f18y at Nottingham on good to firm ground brings together a field of eight lightly raced three-year-olds with little previous experience between them. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top end, ranging from 57 down to 42, underlining how open the contest appears on paper and how much remains unknown about several runners. With the pace shape rated unclear owing to limited run-style evidence, the race poses questions about both trip suitability and the ability of these fillies to show the necessary improvement.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence because there is simply not enough information across the field to build a reliable picture. A couple of runners are noted as usually held up and producing their effort late, yet the overall lack of defined front-runners or confirmed pace influences leaves the shape open to interpretation. The key question is whether any horse can seize an uncontested position or whether the race will develop into a more even affair in which those coming from off the pace can close effectively.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Too Too Divine KTB Selection57/100Modest performer who has shown ordinary form in three starts, finishing no better than fifth.
- 2Mimime55/100Mimime has shown little in two runs at this trip so far and remains very lightly raced overall.
- 3March Of Time53/100March Of Time showed fair form when placed over this trip on debut before running no sort of race when stepped up to 7f last time.
- 4Honky Tonk Girl51/100Honky Tonk Girl has shown ordinary form in three runs to date with a best of fifth on her most recent start.
- 5Hanaan48/100Hanaan showed very little on debut over 7f and now drops back in trip with first-time headgear.
- 6Baby G46/100Baby G has shown little in two starts to date, finishing eighth then fifth without suggesting she is ready to trouble stronger opposition.
- 7Cercis45/100Cercis showed only modest pace when fifth on debut over 5f here on good to firm ground.
- 8Remi Mae42/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency without winning.
The contenders
Too Too Divine KTB Fit 57/100
Too Too Divine is the KTB Selection. This modest performer has shown ordinary form in three starts, finishing no better than fifth. She now drops back to 6f having last run over 7f, which asks a fresh question of her. Trainer James Fanshawe brings a 15% strike rate at Nottingham from 426 runs while Tom Marquand takes the ride; the pair hold a combined record of 19 wins from 80 rides with an A/E of 1.18. She has had one run on good to firm without winning or placing and has no previous course form. From draw 4 she represents the highest KTB Fit Score in the field at 57.
Mimime KTB Fit 55/100
Mimime has shown little in two runs at this trip so far and remains very lightly raced overall. The yard has a solid 15% strike rate at Nottingham from a big sample of 622 runs. With only two starts on the clock the form is hard to weigh up and she needs to improve markedly. She has had one run on good to firm without winning or placing and has no previous course form. From draw 6 she is rated with a KTB Fit Score of 55.
March Of Time KTB Fit 53/100
March Of Time showed fair form when placed over this trip on debut before running no sort of race when stepped up to 7f last time. The drop back to 6f looks a sensible move and first-time headgear is now applied. Clive Cox has a solid 16% strike rate at Nottingham from 272 runs while Hector Crouch takes the ride; the pair hold a combined record of 78 wins from 576 rides with an A/E of 0.91. She has been placed once from two runs on good to firm and has no previous course form. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she is rated with a KTB Fit Score of 53 from draw 5.
Honky Tonk Girl KTB Fit 51/100
Honky Tonk Girl has shown ordinary form in three runs to date with a best of fifth on her most recent start. She is trying the same trip again today after failing to make an impact last time. This represents a step up in class and she remains unproven on good to firm ground. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she is rated with a KTB Fit Score of 51 from draw 3. The small sample means her ability remains hard to pin down at Nottingham.
The rest of the field
HanaanKTB Fit 48/100
Hanaan showed very little on debut over 7f and now drops back in trip with first-time headgear. The yard has a solid 13% strike rate at Nottingham from 110 runs. Everything else is unknown given just one run and low data confidence. This is a step up in class and she is unproven on good to firm ground.
Baby GKTB Fit 46/100
Baby G has shown little in two starts to date, finishing eighth then fifth without suggesting she is ready to trouble stronger opposition. The yard's modest 5% strike rate at Nottingham from 310 runs offers no particular encouragement here. Lightly raced with a small-sample trip run that yielded no success, this remains a low-confidence profile best watched for now.
CercisKTB Fit 45/100
Cercis showed only modest pace when fifth on debut over 5f here on good to firm ground. The step up to 6f is a fresh question while first-time headgear is now fitted. With just one run on the board and the trainer's tiny sample at the track any progress remains guesswork. This is a step up in class.
Remi MaeKTB Fit 42/100
Remi Mae is a modest performer who has shown some consistency without winning. Dropping back to 6f looks a sensible move as she has been placed twice at the trip from three attempts though her latest efforts came over longer. Trainer Andrew Balding has a solid 12% strike rate at Nottingham from 226 runs while Jason Watson partners her from stall one. This is a drop in class.
KTB verdict
Too Too Divine is the KTB Selection. She brings the highest Fit Score and the benefit of a yard that has a proven record at Nottingham, with the drop back to 6f an interesting move after her latest effort. Her ordinary form to date still leaves her ahead of most of these on what is known so far. The main dangers are March Of Time, who showed fair form on debut at this trip before a poor run over further and now tries first-time headgear, and Remi Mae, who has shown consistency and is dropping in class from a good draw. Mimime and Honky Tonk Girl are next in the KTB Fit order but both have more to prove.
KTB Selection Too Too Divine
This is the narrative read of the 3:15 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is the pace shape unclear?
Not enough run-style evidence across the field to read the pace with confidence.
Which horse is first-time headgear?
March Of Time, Hanaan and Cercis are all wearing first-time headgear.
Who has the best trainer strike rate at Nottingham?
Michael Appleby has a 15% strike rate at Nottingham from 622 runs.
Which runners are held up?
March Of Time and Honky Tonk Girl are usually held up and produce their effort late.
Has any horse won at Nottingham before?
No horse in the field has a win or place on course record at Nottingham.
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