3:17 Naas
This 0-70 apprentice handicap over the minimum trip at Naas on good ground features a field of 15 largely exposed and limited performers. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Tawaazon heading the numbers on 58 despite modest recent form, while the rest of the principals sit between 54 and 48. First-time headgear is a recurring theme, appearing on nine of the fifteen runners, and the race looks set to revolve around how the uncontested leader can be tackled from behind.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in late on. Most of the field, including all five principals, are held-up types who will be producing their efforts from the rear, with only a couple of prominent racers and one confirmed front-runner in opposition. This setup poses the key question of whether any of the late runners can generate sufficient pace to close the gap on a horse given an easy time up front.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Tawaazon KTB Selection58/100Tawaazon is a limited performer who has been on the go for a long time and shows inconsistent form.
- 2Platino Bianco54/100Platino Bianco is a limited horse who has shown bits of ability on his better days but is generally exposed after 35 runs.
- 3Undefeatable52/100Limited performer who has shown little spark since a placed effort on good ground last season.
- 4Hot To Foxtrot48/100Limited performer who has shown just fair form at this trip without winning.
- 5Caffu Zafeen48/100Modest performer who has been out of form this year with two heavy defeats.
- 6Reinforce47/100Limited performer who has been out of form for some time and finished well beaten on both starts this year.
- 7Practical Move45/100Practical Move is a limited performer who has shown only modest form in seven starts.
- 8Dandy Land43/100Limited performer who has shown his best form when placed over this trip on his last two starts.
- 9Another Nice'day37/100Limited horse who showed little in six starts for previous connections before springing a surprise when winning a weak 5f handicap at Down Royal last time.
- 10Steel Magnolia36/100Steel Magnolia is a limited filly who has been competitive at this trip without winning, placing four times from ten runs.
- 11Step Back In Time33/100Step Back In Time is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and finished no closer than fourth in five runs at this track.
- 12Livingston Range32/100Limited performer who has won once from six runs at Naas but is now 0-14 since his last success.
- 13Jackandthefox32/100Limited performer who has shown only modest form this year and ran no better than fifth on his last three starts.
- 14Star Allure32/100Limited performer who has been out of form for some time and now drops back to 5f in first-time headgear.
- 15Luminessa30/100Luminessa is a limited filly whose recent form has been modest at best with a string of unplaced efforts.
The contenders
Tawaazon KTB Fit 58/100
Tawaazon is a limited performer who has been on the go for a long time and shows inconsistent form. He has won over this trip and at this track, and his record on good ground is respectable with two wins from eighteen attempts, yet the recent efforts remain modest. First-time headgear is now tried while the yard holds a solid record at Naas with a 10% strike rate and A/E of 1.59 from 21 runs. The jockey also brings strong figures at the venue, boasting a 29% strike rate and A/E of 3.16 from seven rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 8, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time. His course win from six starts here adds to the case for the selection.
Platino Bianco KTB Fit 54/100
Platino Bianco is a limited horse who has shown bits of ability on his better days but is generally exposed after 35 runs. He has won over this trip and at Naas itself from just two starts here, though his record on good ground is modest with only one win from 11 attempts. First-time headgear is now tried as he drops back to 5f from draw 10. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Naas with an A/E of 2.00 from 12 runs, but the jockey's figures read 7% strike rate and A/E of 0.86 from 57 rides at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to find some spark from off the pace if he is to capitalise on his previous course success.
Undefeatable KTB Fit 52/100
Undefeatable is a limited performer who has shown little spark since a placed effort on good ground last season. He drops to the shortest trip tried so far while wearing headgear for the first time from a wide draw in stall 15. Course form is poor from a single run that saw him finish tenth with no win or place, and the trainer has no recorded runners at Naas. The jockey does bring a 13% strike rate and A/E of 1.69 from 15 rides at the venue. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his placed record of one from five on good ground offers the only real positive in an otherwise modest profile.
Hot To Foxtrot KTB Fit 48/100
Hot To Foxtrot is a limited performer who has shown just fair form at this trip without winning. He has placed on both runs on good ground and now tries headgear for the first time after a string of modest efforts from draw 12. The trainer has a modest 5% strike rate at Naas with an A/E of 0.64 from 113 runs, while the jockey operates at 11% strike rate and A/E of 0.90 from 65 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he lacks course form and will need the new headgear to spark improvement if he is to figure from off the pace in a race that may not suit his run style.
Caffu Zafeen KTB Fit 48/100
Caffu Zafeen is a modest performer who has been out of form this year with two heavy defeats. The trainer's modest 5% strike-rate at Naas from 126 runs offers little encouragement and the wide draw in stall 14 is another negative as he drops back to 5f having been well held over longer trips lately. Typically settling in midfield, the combination of trainer and jockey reads is uninspiring, with the yard at 5% and the jockey showing 0% strike rate and A/E of 0 from four rides at the track. He has placed twice from four starts on good ground but recent form leaves him with plenty to find.
The rest of the field
ReinforceKTB Fit 47/100
Reinforce is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and finished well beaten on both starts this year. He has placed once from two runs at Naas and holds a win on good ground though the trainer's record at the track is poor with 0% strike rate and A/E of 0 from 22 runs, while he drops back to 5f today where he has won twice in the past.
Practical MoveKTB Fit 45/100
Practical Move is a limited performer who has shown only modest form in seven starts. He has run twice at Naas without winning or placing and has been beaten all four attempts at this trip, while the trainer has no recorded runners at the track so far and the 4 lb claimer is also making his first appearance here.
Dandy LandKTB Fit 43/100
Dandy Land is a limited performer who has shown his best form when placed over this trip on his last two starts. First-time headgear is now applied and he has the benefit of a good draw in stall 3, though the trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Naas from 387 runs suggests the yard is struggling here at present.
Another Nice'dayKTB Fit 37/100
Another Nice'day is a limited horse who showed little in six starts for previous connections before springing a surprise when winning a weak 5f handicap at Down Royal last time. First-time headgear is now applied and the yard has a modest 3% strike-rate at Naas from 29 runs, with only one previous run at this track resulting in a midfield finish.
Steel MagnoliaKTB Fit 36/100
Steel Magnolia is a limited filly who has been competitive at this trip without winning, placing four times from ten runs. She showed some promise when fourth over course and distance on her only visit to Naas and has placed once from five starts on good ground, with first-time headgear now applied to a yard that operates at a 6% strike rate here.
Step Back In TimeKTB Fit 33/100
Step Back In Time is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and finished no closer than fourth in five runs at this track. He drops back to his winning trip today and has a respectable record on good ground, but the first-time headgear is an unknown on a horse with a poor recent record and the trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Naas adds little encouragement.
Livingston RangeKTB Fit 32/100
Livingston Range is a limited performer who has won once from six runs at Naas but is now 0-14 since his last success. He drops back to 5f having been placed three times at the trip without winning and first-time headgear is now fitted, while the trainer has a modest 3% strike rate at the track from 58 runs.
JackandthefoxKTB Fit 32/100
Jackandthefox is a limited performer who has shown only modest form this year and ran no better than fifth on his last three starts. He has a bit of placed form on good ground and has been placed once at this trip though he is now dropping back from 7f, while the yard's poor record at Naas adds to the negatives.
Star AllureKTB Fit 32/100
Star Allure is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and now drops back to 5f in first-time headgear. She has shown placed form at this trip in the past but her recent efforts are poor and the trainer has yet to record a winner from 26 runs at Naas, with going form limited to a single run on good ground.
LuminessaKTB Fit 30/100
Luminessa is a limited filly whose recent form has been modest at best with a string of unplaced efforts. She drops back to 5f for the first time in a while having failed to trouble the judge on her only previous run at the trip and first-time headgear is now applied, while the trainer's modest record at Naas adds little encouragement.
KTB verdict
Tawaazon is the KTB Selection and looks to have the best blend of course record, going stats and yard/jockey figures at Naas in a race full of limited and largely out-of-form runners. His prior win over the course and distance, coupled with respectable form on good ground, gives him a solid platform despite his modest recent efforts, and the first-time headgear could help him produce his effort late from a midfield draw. The main dangers are likely to come from Platino Bianco, who has won over course and distance, and Dandy Land, who arrives in form with a good draw, though both must overcome their own limitations in a contest where the uncontested lead could be decisive.
KTB Selection Tawaazon
This is the narrative read of the 3:17 Naas. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Naas racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is first-time headgear so prevalent in this race?
Nine of the fifteen runners, including all five principals, are wearing headgear for the first time.
How does the pace shape influence the race?
A lone leader with high confidence is expected to secure an uncontested lead that can be hard for the many held-up types to peg back.
Which horse has the strongest Naas trainer and jockey combination among the principals?
Tawaazon, with the trainer at 10% strike rate and A/E 1.59 from 21 runs, and the jockey at 29% strike rate and A/E 3.16 from 7 rides.
Which runners have previous course and distance form at Naas?
Tawaazon has won here, Steel Magnolia has finished fourth over course and distance, and Platino Bianco has won here from two starts.
What are the going credentials of the top two in the KTB Fit rankings?
Tawaazon has two wins from 18 on good with seven places, while Platino Bianco has one win from 11 on good with one place.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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