3:47 Naas
This 0-70 handicap over 7f at Naas on good ground brings together a field of 19 modest performers, many of whom arrive with patchy recent form and questions to answer. First-time headgear is a recurring theme, with no fewer than 13 runners sporting it for the first time. The KTB Fit Scores reflect a competitive but largely unconvincing bunch, with top-rated Chester Nimitz only reaching 57/100 and the remainder tightly bunched between 52 and 35.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a natural leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy should pay dividends. With the majority of the field, including all five principals, tending to be held up or race in mid-division, the early fractions are likely to be modest. The key question is whether those capable of producing their effort from off the pace can find the necessary rhythm in a race that may not truly test stamina.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Chester Nimitz KTB Selection57/100Modest performer who has dropped to a handy mark but has failed to fire on his last four starts after an opening win.
- 2Altimara52/100Modest performer who has failed to land a blow in three starts this year and looks up against it from stall 10.
- 3Summer Snow51/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts.
- 4Rappell51/100Modest performer with a patchy record and no strong recent signs of a return to form.
- 5Dynamic Force50/100Modest performer who has run well here once, finishing second on his latest visit to Naas.
- 6Volendam50/100Modest performer with a solid recent record of placed efforts mixed in with the odd win.
- 7Frosted Sky50/100Modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date, finishing eighth on each of his last two outings.
- 8Lough Leane48/100Modest performer who has been in and out this year and now tries first-time headgear.
- 9Darkdeserthighway46/100Modest performer who has won over this trip and at this track from his three runs here.
- 10Phoenix Pairc46/100Modest performer who has won once over this trip but has been well below form on his last two starts.
- 11Sherekiya46/100Modest performer who showed ordinary form in three runs last year, finishing no better than seventh.
- 12Bear Right46/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough of late with three consecutive placed efforts but remains a maiden after ten runs.
- 13Profit Surge45/100Modest performer with a solid recent record of six consecutive placed efforts including three seconds.
- 14Mo Anam Chara45/100Modest performer who showed improved form to win a handicap at Gowran last time and has a previous 7f success on his record.
- 15Zheleznaya Dama42/100Modest performer who has shown some spark on her last two starts, finishing second at the Curragh and fifth at Gowran.
- 16Irish Rumour40/100Modest performer who has run four times at Naas without winning yet has placed twice here.
- 17Land Of The Giants38/100Modest performer who has been knocking around this level without winning for some time.
- 18Suerte37/100Suerte is a limited performer who has shown very little in ten starts and arrives here on the back of two poor efforts this year.
- 19Miss Ivor35/100Miss Ivor has shown very little in five starts and looks limited on the balance of her form and ratings.
The contenders
Chester Nimitz KTB Fit 57/100
Chester Nimitz is a modest performer who has dropped to a handy mark. He has failed to fire on his last four starts after an opening win and has placed twice from five runs on good ground yet remains winless at this trip from the same number of attempts. First-time headgear is now applied while the yard holds a solid 12% strike rate at Naas from 98 runs. The trainer and jockey combination shows 0/9 (0%) on the card. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 16, he will need the race to fall right in a steadily-run affair.
Altimara KTB Fit 52/100
Altimara is a modest performer who has failed to land a blow in three starts this year and looks up against it from stall 10. He has shown some ability at this track before and is 2-12 at today's trip, while the first-time headgear is an interesting addition. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Naas from 218 runs is a concern, though the trainer and jockey record stands at 12/90 (13%) with an A/E of 1.58. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has two wins and two places from ten runs on good ground.
Summer Snow KTB Fit 51/100
Summer Snow is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts. He drops back to his winning trip today and has a solid record on good ground with four wins from 14 runs, yet his five runs at this track have produced no better than fourth. First-time headgear is tried while the trainer remains winless from 13 runs at Naas. Usually held up and producing his effort late from the inside draw, he will need to find improvement.
Rappell KTB Fit 51/100
Rappell is a modest performer with a patchy record and no strong recent signs of a return to form. He has won over today's trip but steps up in distance from his latest run while trying headgear for the first time. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Naas from 126 runs and two unplaced efforts here add to the negatives, though the trainer and jockey record is 11/69 (16%) with an A/E of 1.21. Usually held up, he has three wins and six places from 15 runs on good ground.
Dynamic Force KTB Fit 50/100
Dynamic Force is a modest performer who has run well here once, finishing second on his latest visit to Naas. He has a solid record at today's trip and on good ground with three wins from 21 runs, but his overall strike-rate is poor and the trainer's record at this track is weak with a 2% strike rate from 277 runs. First-time headgear is now fitted. Typically settling in midfield from draw 3, the trainer and jockey record reads 3/94 (3%) with an A/E of 0.42.
The rest of the field
VolendamKTB Fit 50/100
Volendam is a modest performer with a solid recent record of placed efforts mixed in with the odd win. He drops back to 7f today after a string of longer runs and has never won at the trip from six attempts. The trainer operates at a 6% strike rate from 34 runs at Naas while the horse makes its first start here. Usually held up, he has one win from two runs on good ground.
Frosted SkyKTB Fit 50/100
Frosted Sky is a modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date, finishing eighth on each of his last two outings. He steps up from 5f to 7f today which asks a fresh question, though he has already tried the trip once without success. The trainer records a solid 12% strike rate from 17 runs at Naas. Usually held up, he has one run on good with no win or place.
Lough LeaneKTB Fit 48/100
Lough Leane is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and now tries first-time headgear. Dropping back from 1m1½f to 7f poses a fresh question having failed to win in six previous attempts at the trip. He has only one run at Naas, finishing 14th, and the trainer's tiny sample here means little is known. Placed twice from five runs on good ground.
DarkdeserthighwayKTB Fit 46/100
Darkdeserthighway is a modest performer who has won over this trip and at this track from his three runs here. He has dropped back from 1m today and first-time headgear is now applied after a string of ordinary efforts. The trainer holds a solid 12% strike rate at Naas while the jockey is 0-8 at the track. Usually held up, he has one win from 17 runs on good ground.
Phoenix PaircKTB Fit 46/100
Phoenix Pairc is a modest performer who has won once over this trip but has been well below form on his last two starts. First-time headgear is tried today after two poor efforts on good ground where he has failed to place from five runs. The trainer has a modest 6% strike rate at Naas from 387 runs. Usually held up.
SherekiyaKTB Fit 46/100
Sherekiya is a modest performer who showed ordinary form in three runs last year, finishing no better than seventh. She drops back from a mile to 7f today which asks a fresh question. The trainer has a 12% strike rate from 1281 runs at Naas. Typically settling in midfield, she has one run on good with no win or place.
Bear RightKTB Fit 46/100
Bear Right is a modest performer who has been consistent enough of late with three consecutive placed efforts but remains a maiden after ten runs. He has shown some ability on good ground and at this trip yet has twice failed to land a blow here at Naas from wide draws. First-time headgear is now applied while the yard’s modest strike rate at the track adds no confidence. Usually held up.
Profit SurgeKTB Fit 45/100
Profit Surge is a modest performer with a solid recent record of six consecutive placed efforts including three seconds. He steps up from 5f to 7f for the first time in a while having been placed three times from nine starts at the trip without winning. First-time headgear is tried while the trainer operates at a 5% strike rate from 154 runs at Naas. Usually held up, he has been placed three times from seven runs on good ground.
Mo Anam CharaKTB Fit 45/100
Mo Anam Chara is a modest performer who showed improved form to win a handicap at Gowran last time and has a previous 7f success on his record. Dropping back in trip from 7½f looks a sensible move but he was well held on his only previous run at Naas. The yard's modest 3% strike rate at this track is another negative. Usually held up, he is unproven on good ground.
Zheleznaya DamaKTB Fit 42/100
Zheleznaya Dama is a modest performer who has shown some spark on her last two starts, finishing second at the Curragh and fifth at Gowran. She has placed twice from seven runs on good ground but is dropping back from a mile to 7f having never won at either trip. The yard's modest record at Naas adds little confidence. Usually held up.
Irish RumourKTB Fit 40/100
Irish Rumour is a modest performer who has run four times at Naas without winning yet has placed twice here. She steps up from 6f to 7f having been placed at the trip before, while first-time headgear is now tried. The trainer's modest record at the track adds little confidence. Usually held up, she has one win from 13 runs on good ground.
Land Of The GiantsKTB Fit 38/100
Land Of The Giants is a modest performer who has been knocking around this level without winning for some time. He drops back to 7f having been placed at the trip before, though his recent form is mixed and he now tries first-time headgear. The trainer operates at a 7% strike rate here from 306 runs while the jockey is having his first ride at the track. Typically settling in midfield, he has been placed once from seven runs on good ground.
SuerteKTB Fit 37/100
Suerte is a limited performer who has shown very little in ten starts and arrives here on the back of two poor efforts this year. The drop back to 7f asks a fresh question while first-time headgear is also tried, though the yard's modest 5% strike rate at Naas offers little encouragement. Going form on good ground is unconvincing with no win or place from four runs. Usually held up.
Miss IvorKTB Fit 35/100
Miss Ivor has shown very little in five starts and looks limited on the balance of her form and ratings. She has been well beaten both starts at Naas and now drops back from 1m4f to a trip at which she has already failed twice. The trainer holds a 0% strike rate from seven runs at the track. Typically settling in midfield, she has one run on good with no win or place.
KTB verdict
Chester Nimitz is the KTB Selection. A modest performer who has dropped to a handy mark, he has placed on good ground and now receives the first-time headgear while his yard has a solid record at Naas. The steadily-run nature of the race could suit his held-up style if the gaps appear at the right time. Main dangers include Altimara, who brings course ability and interesting headgear, and Dynamic Force, who has run well at the track before. Summer Snow and Rappell add further depth to a race where many hold similar modest profiles.
KTB Selection Chester Nimitz
This is the narrative read of the 3:47 Naas. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Naas racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is first-time headgear so prevalent in this race?
Thirteen of the 19 runners are wearing headgear for the first time, a reflection of the largely modest and inconsistent profiles across the field.
How does the lack of a leader affect the race shape?
It points to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy is likely to pay, given that most runners are held up or race in mid-division.
Which horse has the strongest course record at Naas?
Darkdeserthighway has won here from three runs, while Irish Rumour has placed twice from four visits; most others have either no form or modest placings at best.
What does the pace shape suggest for held-up runners?
In a steadily-run race without an obvious leader, held-up horses will need the pace to quicken at the right moment for their late efforts to be effective.
Which trainers have the best strike rates at Naas in this field?
Gerard O'Leary has a 12% strike rate from 98 runs, Daniel McLoughlin 12% from 17, and M D O'Callaghan 12% from 262; several others are below 6%.
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