3:25 Ripon
The William Hill/MND Association Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon is a competitive Class 2 sprint over six furlongs on good ground with a field of 15. Strong pace is anticipated, which according to the KTB numbers should play into the hands of those who race off the pace. Aramram heads the KTB Fit ratings on 64 while the next four principals are tightly bunched between 58 and 55, suggesting a race with several viable contenders but a clear top pick on the figures.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up the pace shape is expected to be strong and liable to collapse late, favouring hold-up horses. It Just Takes Time and I'm Next are the most likely to take the race on from the front or race prominently, while the majority of the field including the top five in the KTB rankings are hold-up types. The key question is whether the leaders go hard enough to stretch the field and create late-race opportunities for those coming from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Aramram KTB Selection64/100Smart performer who has won six times at this trip and arrives in decent form after a win and two seconds from his last four starts.
- 2Dark Cloud Rising58/100Useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 3Fast Track Harry58/100Useful performer who has won four times at this trip from 13 starts.
- 4Lord Roxby56/100Useful performer who has won here once from two runs and also has a solid record at this trip with three wins from 16 starts.
- 5Royal Zabeel55/100Useful performer who has won twice at this trip and showed his best form when winning a handicap over 7f last time out.
- 6It Just Takes Time53/100It Just Takes Time is a fair performer with a solid course record here and has been in decent form this year with three placed efforts from his last six starts.
- 7Kodiac Thriller51/100Kodiac Thriller is a fair performer who has won once from four runs at Ripon and steps up from 5f to a trip he has won over before.
- 8Fortification49/100Fortification is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes a second over this course and trip.
- 9Eye Of Dubai48/100Eye Of Dubai is a fair performer who has won two of his three starts at Ripon and also has three wins from 24 starts at this trip.
- 10I'm Next47/100I'm Next is a fair handicapper who has been in and out this year but showed his best form when winning twice over 5f in the spring.
- 11Khafiz46/100Useful performer who has been out of the money on his last four starts and now drops back to 6f for the first time since an unsuccessful attempt last year.
- 12Flight Control44/100Fair performer who has shown consistent form this year with a win at this trip and solid placed efforts.
- 13Manila Scouse43/100Manila Scouse is a fair performer who has run five times at Ripon without winning but has placed once.
- 14Musical Touch41/100Musical Touch is a fair performer who has won four times at this trip from 17 attempts and handles good ground well with two wins and three places from five run…
- 15Brighton Boy41/100Fair performer who has been in and out this season with a recent form line of 012606.
The contenders
Aramram KTB Fit 64/100
Aramram is a smart performer who has won six times over this trip and arrives in decent form after a win and two seconds from his last four starts. He is dropping in class here which looks a positive, though he has been below his best on his only previous run at Ripon and his record on good ground is only modest for a horse of his ability. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the expected strong pace. The yard has a 23% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 1.11 from 74 runs while the jockey has an 18% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.1 from 11 rides.
Dark Cloud Rising KTB Fit 58/100
Dark Cloud Rising is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track. His recent form is a bit mixed but the figures still stack up in this grade and the first-time headgear could sharpen him up. He steps up in class here having won at Ripon from two starts and boasts a solid record on good ground with three wins from ten runs. Usually racing prominently on or close to the lead, he could find himself in the firing line early in a race that is likely to be strongly run. Both trainer and jockey have solid records at Ripon, the latter boasting a 21% strike rate with an A/E of 1.02 from 474 rides.
Fast Track Harry KTB Fit 58/100
Fast Track Harry is a useful performer who has won four times at this trip from 13 starts. Recent form has been patchy with a string of poor efforts either side of a placed run, and he showed little on his only previous start on good ground. First-time headgear is now tried while he steps up in class. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he should be favoured by the anticipated strong pace that could collapse late. The trainer has a 14% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 0.94 from 28 runs and the jockey has a 17% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.13 from 12 rides.
Lord Roxby KTB Fit 56/100
Lord Roxby is a useful performer who has won here once from two runs and also has a solid record at this trip with three wins from 16 starts. He has shown consistent form this year with a recent win and places, and acts well on good ground with three wins and six places from nine runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he is well placed to benefit if the strong pace collapses. The trainer's modest 8% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 0.88 from 553 runs is offset by the jockey's stronger 16% record at the track with an A/E of 1.47 from 45 rides.
Royal Zabeel KTB Fit 55/100
Royal Zabeel is a useful performer who has won twice at this trip and showed his best form when winning a handicap over 7f last time out. He drops back to 6f today having already scored on good ground, though the recent form figures show plenty of lesser runs mixed in. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he should be suited by the race shape. The trainer and jockey both operate at a 10% strike rate at Ripon, the former with an A/E of 0.87 from 80 runs and the latter with an A/E of 0.67 from 60 rides.
The rest of the field
It Just Takes TimeKTB Fit 53/100
It Just Takes Time is a fair performer with a solid course record here and has been in decent form this year with three placed efforts from his last six starts. He drops back to his winning trip today having scored twice over 6f in the past though his record on good ground is only modest with one win from 15 starts. The trainer has a good 16% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 1.31 from 101 runs while the jockey's record at the track is weaker.
Kodiac ThrillerKTB Fit 51/100
Kodiac Thriller is a fair performer who has won once from four runs at Ripon and steps up from 5f to a trip he has won over before. He has been competitive on good ground without winning and now tries first-time headgear after a mixed recent record. The trainer holds a solid record at the track with a 16% strike rate and an A/E of 1.31 from 101 runs while the jockey's strike-rate here remains low.
FortificationKTB Fit 49/100
Fortification is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes a second over this course and trip. He acts on good ground and has placed at 6f, though today's longer distance from a wide draw is a fresh question. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 0.75 from 216 runs and the jockey's 6% record here with an A/E of 0.7 from 16 rides add further negatives.
Eye Of DubaiKTB Fit 48/100
Eye Of Dubai is a fair performer who has won two of his three starts at Ripon and also has three wins from 24 starts at this trip. He has been out of form on his last three starts though and steps back up from 5f today. The yard has a solid 13% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.97 from 38 runs while Sullivan is operating at 8%.
I'm NextKTB Fit 47/100
I'm Next is a fair handicapper who has been in and out this year but showed his best form when winning twice over 5f in the spring. He has never won over 6f and steps up in trip for the first time today, which asks a fresh question. The yard has a modest 10% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 0.84 from 2397 runs while the jockey's record here is slightly better.
KhafizKTB Fit 46/100
Khafiz is a useful performer who has been out of the money on his last four starts and now drops back to 6f for the first time since an unsuccessful attempt last year. He handles good ground and has shown enough ability in stronger company to be competitive here. Trainer operates at a 10% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 0.82 from 181 runs while the jockey is operating at 33% from a small sample.
Flight ControlKTB Fit 44/100
Flight Control is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year with a win at this trip and solid placed efforts. Drops back from 7f today which looks a sensible move given his record at 6f. Trainer has only a tiny sample at Ripon while the jockey operates at a modest 9% strike rate here.
Manila ScouseKTB Fit 43/100
Manila Scouse is a fair performer who has run five times at Ripon without winning but has placed once. He steps up from 5f to 6f today where he has three wins from 25 starts and arrives in decent recent form including a win and a second. First-time headgear is now tried while the yard and jockey both have modest strike rates at the track.
Musical TouchKTB Fit 41/100
Musical Touch is a fair performer who has won four times at this trip from 17 attempts and handles good ground well with two wins and three places from five runs. He has been in and out of form lately and was well held when seventh on his only previous run here. The yard has a modest 5% strike-rate at Ripon from 37 runs while the jockey is still seeking a first winner from 14 rides at the track.
Brighton BoyKTB Fit 41/100
Brighton Boy is a fair performer who has been in and out this season with a recent form line of 012606. Drops back to 6f having won twice at the trip from seven attempts while he has also shown he handles good ground. Trainer has a solid 10% strike rate at Ripon from a huge sample but the claiming jockey is operating at only 4% here from 25 rides.
KTB verdict
Aramram is the KTB Selection. A smart performer with six wins at the trip and recent form that includes a win and two seconds from his last four starts, he drops in class and is expected to be suited by the strong pace that should favour hold-up horses. The yard and jockey both have solid records at Ripon which adds to his appeal. His main dangers are likely to be Dark Cloud Rising, who has course and distance form and first-time headgear to assist him, and the consistent Lord Roxby who has won here and acts particularly well on good ground.
KTB Selection Aramram
This is the narrative read of the 3:25 Ripon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ripon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping in class and has won six times at this trip?
Aramram, who is the KTB Selection with a Fit score of 64.
How many front-runners are there and what does that mean for the race shape?
Two or more habitual front-runners are present, making a strong pace likely that could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which horse has first-time headgear and has won at this track?
Dark Cloud Rising, a useful performer with a KTB Fit score of 58.
Who has the strongest jockey record at Ripon among the principals?
Daniel Tudhope on Dark Cloud Rising with a 21% strike rate and A/E of 1.02 from 474 rides.
Which runner has won here once from two starts and acts well on good ground?
Lord Roxby, who has a KTB Fit score of 56 and three wins from nine runs on good ground.
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