3:55 Ripon
This Class 4 handicap at Ripon over a mile on good ground features an 11-runner field where the KTB numbers point to a competitive but well-defined contest. The principals are headed by Swiped on a Fit rating of 65, with Best Rate (63), Murashah (57), Jungle Ruler (54) and Capital Guarantee (53) completing the top five. Overall the KTB assessments highlight several in-form fair performers, with recent winners and placed horses prominent, though the race poses questions around trip, ground and the first-time headgear carried by multiple runners.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up and the pace shape assessed as strong with high confidence, the race is expected to be run at a solid gallop from the outset. Garden Oasis and High Point are the types to make the running or race prominently, which could set up a contest that collapses late and plays into the hands of hold-up performers. Most of the field, including all five principals, are typically held up and produce their efforts from off the pace. The key question is whether the strong pace will create enough late openings for the closers or if the prominent runners can dictate matters throughout.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Swiped KTB Selection65/100Fair performer who arrives in excellent order with three wins from his last four starts, including two at this trip.
- 2Best Rate63/100Best Rate is a fair performer who arrives in solid form after two wins in his last four starts.
- 3Murashah57/100Murashah is a fair performer who showed improved form when winning last time out over 7f.
- 4Jungle Ruler54/100Jungle Ruler is a fair 3-year-old with a consistent recent record of 445432 and has placed once in three starts at this trip.
- 5Capital Guarantee53/100Capital Guarantee is a fair performer who has won over this trip and on this ground.
- 6High Point49/100Fair performer who has been below form on his last two starts.
- 7Andesite49/100Fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately and now tries a new trip for the first time.
- 8Advance Twentyfive46/100Fair performer who showed improved form when winning last time out over 7.5f.
- 9Garden Oasis45/100Modest 11-year-old with a solid course record here, winning four times from 21 runs, and he has also won at this trip.
- 10Barley44/100Modest performer who has been knocking on the door of late with a string of placed efforts including three seconds at this track.
- 11His Finest Hour43/100Modest performer who has been consistent without winning, finishing in the first three on four of his last five starts including a recent third over course and…
The contenders
Swiped KTB Fit 65/100
Swiped arrives in excellent order with three wins from his last four starts, including two at this trip, and is taken to land this contest. A fair performer, the three-year-old handles good ground and the first-time headgear is an interesting addition after a busy campaign. Ralph Beckett has a solid 24% strike rate at Ripon from 72 runs with an A/E of 0.9, though Rhys Clutterbuck has no recorded rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 2 and his recent form figures of 521211 underline his current momentum.
Best Rate KTB Fit 63/100
Best Rate is a fair performer who arrives in solid form after two wins in his last four starts and has won twice at this trip from nine attempts. He has shown he can be competitive on good ground, having been placed once from three runs. Richard Hannon holds a strong 23% strike rate at Ripon from 74 runs with an A/E of 1.11, while Joe Leavy is effective here with an 18% strike rate from 11 rides and an A/E of 1.1. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 1 with recent form figures of 324113.
Murashah KTB Fit 57/100
Murashah is a fair performer who showed improved form when winning last time out over 7f and now steps up in trip for the first time, which asks a fresh question. First-time headgear is now fitted and he has won both of his previous starts on good ground. Edward Bethell has a solid 22% strike rate at Ripon from 65 runs with an A/E of 0.87, while Oisin Orr is 14% here from 86 rides with an A/E of 0.85. Usually held up though with limited evidence, he is drawn in stall 8 with recent form figures of 1622/1.
Jungle Ruler KTB Fit 54/100
Jungle Ruler is a fair three-year-old with a consistent recent record of 445432 and has placed once in three starts at this trip. The yard holds a 10% strike rate at Ripon from 80 runs with an A/E of 0.87, while Harry Davies has a strong 33% record from 18 rides here with an A/E of 1.19. He is unproven on good ground and makes his first visit to the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he is drawn in stall 10.
Capital Guarantee KTB Fit 53/100
Capital Guarantee is a fair performer who has won over this trip and on this ground. He has already scored at Ripon from just two runs there and holds solid recent form including a win last time out. David O'Meara has a strong 15% strike rate at the track from 784 runs with an A/E of 0.98, while Mark Winn is operating at a more modest 10% from 68 rides with an A/E of 0.78. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he is drawn in stall 11 with recent form figures of 090616.
The rest of the field
High PointKTB Fit 49/100
High Point is a fair performer who has been below form on his last two starts. He has shown some ability on good ground and at this trip but has never won at the distance and was well beaten on his only previous run here. Iain Jardine has a solid 12% strike rate at Ripon from 99 runs with an A/E of 1.01, while Andrew Mullen is operating at 5% from 326 rides with an A/E of 0.6. Tends to make the running or race on the pace.
AndesiteKTB Fit 49/100
Andesite is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately and now tries a new trip for the first time. Has placed once at a mile from two attempts and handles good ground with a win and three places from eight runs. First-time headgear is tried while both trainer and jockey have modest 10% strike rates at Ripon. Dropping in class and usually held up with high confidence.
Advance TwentyfiveKTB Fit 46/100
Advance Twentyfive is a fair performer who showed improved form when winning last time out over 7.5f. Steps up to a trip he has already won over but this is his first run at Ripon and the yard and jockey both have modest 5% strike rates here. First-time headgear is now added and he is usually held up with high confidence.
Garden OasisKTB Fit 45/100
Garden Oasis is a modest 11-year-old with a solid course record here, winning four times from 21 runs, and he has also won at this trip. He has placed three times from his last six starts and handles good ground, though his recent form has been a bit up and down. First-time headgear is now tried on a horse who knows his way around this track. Tends to make the running or race on the pace and stepping up in class.
BarleyKTB Fit 44/100
Barley is a modest performer who has been knocking on the door of late with a string of placed efforts including three seconds at this track. He acts on good ground and has won over today's trip though he remains winless in 17 attempts on this surface. First-time headgear is now applied and he is usually held up with high confidence.
His Finest HourKTB Fit 43/100
His Finest Hour is a modest performer who has been consistent without winning, finishing in the first three on four of his last five starts including a recent third over course and distance. Drops back from 1m2f today which asks a fresh question, while his record on good ground is limited to a single run. Trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Ripon is offset by the jockey's solid 16% record at the track. Usually held up.
KTB verdict
Swiped is the KTB Selection and arrives in excellent order with three wins from his last four starts, including two at this trip. He handles good ground, the first-time headgear is an interesting addition, and the trainer has a solid record at Ripon. The race is likely to be strongly run which should suit his hold-up style. Main dangers are Best Rate, who is in solid form with two wins in his last four and a good record for the yard and jockey at the track, and Murashah, who showed improved form when winning last time and has a strong record on good ground.
KTB Selection Swiped
This is the narrative read of the 3:55 Ripon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ripon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time?
Murashah showed improved form when winning last time out over 7f and now steps up in trip for the first time.
How many horses are wearing first-time headgear?
Swiped, Murashah, Andesite, Advance Twentyfive, Garden Oasis and Barley are all wearing first-time headgear.
Which runners are likely to make the running?
High Point tends to make the running or race on the pace, as does Garden Oasis.
Which horse has won at Ripon before?
Capital Guarantee has already scored at Ripon from just two runs there, while Garden Oasis has a solid course record here, winning four times from 21 runs.
Who has the strongest jockey record at Ripon among the principals?
Harry Davies has a 33% strike rate at Ripon from 18 rides with an A/E of 1.19 when riding Jungle Ruler.
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