3:47 Cartmel
The 3.47 at Cartmel is a competitive Class 3 handicap hurdle over 2m6f31y on good ground, featuring a field of 13 that includes several high-class performers on their day. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Tommie Beau and Shantwopointfive sharing the highest rating of 69, followed by three others on 65, underlining the depth and balance in the race. Course form will be significant at this quirky track, where several runners boast prior victories, and the application of first-time headgear to no fewer than nine of the field adds an extra layer of intrigue.
How the race shapes up
With a number of prominent and mid-pack runners in the field, including the likes of Tommie Beau, Belles Benefit and Caughtinyourtrance who tend to race up with the pace, the race is likely to be run at a decent clip on this sharp track. Shantwopointfive and High Dancer are also capable of taking a hand early, while the pace shape suggests a genuine test that could stretch those wanting a stiffer trip or lacking the necessary gears. The key question is whether the prominent types can dictate matters or if the race will be won from off the pace once the leaders come back to the field in the latter stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Tommie Beau KTB Selection69/100Tommie Beau remains a high-class performer on his day and has won three times from eight starts at Cartmel.
- 2Shantwopointfive69/100Shantwopointfive is high-class on the figures and has won both previous starts at Cartmel.
- 3Belles Benefit65/100Smart performer who has won twice at this track and also has three wins over today's trip.
- 4Homme Public65/100Homme Public is a high-class performer with strong recent signs of a return to form when third at Worcester last time.
- 5Howdoyalikeherhome65/100High-class performer on his day but has been out of sorts this season with recent form reading PP-48F.
- 6High Dancer64/100High Dancer is a high-class performer with solid recent form including two wins from his last three starts.
- 7Caughtinyourtrance63/100Caughtinyourtrance is a high-class performer with strong course connections having won three times from seven runs here.
- 8Peaky Boy56/100High-class on his day with strong ratings and placed efforts in his last three starts.
- 9Oakley54/100Smart performer who arrives in solid form having won three of his last five starts.
- 10Evenwood Sonofagun50/100Useful performer who has won three times at Cartmel including two at today's trip.
- 11Rauzan49/100Useful performer who has won over today's trip but has been below form on both starts at Cartmel.
- 12Roaring Home49/100Smart performer who arrives in excellent order after two placed efforts this spring.
- 13Dinons48/100Smart 13-year-old who has won at this trip and handles good ground well with eight wins from 20 starts.
The contenders
Tommie Beau KTB Fit 69/100
Tommie Beau remains a high-class performer on his day and has won three times from eight starts at Cartmel. He arrives in decent form after two placed efforts this year yet was well held when last seen over an extreme 3m5f trip and now drops back to 2m6f where he has failed to win in one previous attempt. The yard has no previous runners at the track while the 5lb claimer has a modest 13 percent strike rate here from eight rides. An 11-year-old with an excellent record on good ground, including eight wins from 23 starts, he knows his way around this venue and could be suited by returning to a trip short of the latest stamina test. His recent form of 686-12 shows he retains plenty of ability when conditions are right.
Shantwopointfive KTB Fit 69/100
Shantwopointfive is high-class on the figures and has won both previous starts at Cartmel. He steps up in trip today having already won twice at this distance yet his recent form is patchy and he is now tried in first-time headgear. The yard and jockey both hold strong records at the track, with the trainer operating at 19 percent and the jockey at 21 percent from their respective visits. An 8-year-old who has shown he can be competitive on good ground without winning, his course-and-distance prowess makes him a major player if the headgear helps him to settle and produce his best. The drop in class is another positive for connections.
Belles Benefit KTB Fit 65/100
Belles Benefit is a smart performer who has won twice at this track and also has three wins over today's trip. Recent C&D success came off the back of a solid sequence and the yard and rider both go well here. First-time headgear is the main unknown for this 10-year-old, who steps up in class having won last time out. With four wins from 23 starts on good ground and nine placings, he has the ability to figure prominently if the new headgear has the desired effect. The trainer's 18 percent strike rate at Cartmel and the jockey's 29 percent record from 21 rides underline the strength of the local connections.
Homme Public KTB Fit 65/100
Homme Public is a high-class performer with strong recent signs of a return to form when third at Worcester last time. He steps up in trip today as a fresh question while wearing headgear for the first time. The trainer holds a solid 25 percent strike rate at Cartmel but the jockey is still seeking his first winner from seven rides here. A 9-year-old with three wins from 11 starts on good ground, his drop in class could help him to build on that latest effort. The combination of the trip increase and first-time headgear means there are questions to answer, yet his ability is not in doubt.
Howdoyalikeherhome KTB Fit 65/100
Howdoyalikeherhome is a high-class performer on his day but has been out of sorts this season with recent form reading PP-48F. Drops back from 3m to a trip he has won at before while first-time headgear is now applied. Trainer holds a strong 27 percent strike rate at Cartmel though the jockey has no recorded rides here. A 7-year-old with one win from seven starts on good ground, he needs to bounce back to his best to trouble the principals. The headgear is an interesting addition given his recent fortunes, and the yard's record at the track offers some hope.
The rest of the field
High DancerKTB Fit 64/100
High Dancer is a high-class performer with solid recent form including two wins from his last three starts. He steps up in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance on his only attempt and tries first-time headgear. Trainer and jockey both have good records at Cartmel while he is 2-5 on good ground.
CaughtinyourtranceKTB Fit 63/100
Caughtinyourtrance is a high-class performer with strong course connections having won three times from seven runs here. He arrives in decent nick with two wins from his last three starts and has a solid record on good ground including two victories from six attempts. Dropping back in trip today poses a fresh question though the first-time headgear could sharpen him up.
Peaky BoyKTB Fit 56/100
Peaky Boy is high-class on his day with strong ratings and placed efforts in his last three starts. Drops back from 3m to a trip he has never tried while making his Cartmel debut and first appearance in headgear. Trainer has only two runs at the track so far while the jockey has a modest 12 percent strike rate here from 17 rides.
OakleyKTB Fit 54/100
Oakley is a smart performer who arrives in solid form having won three of his last five starts. Drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried which asks a fresh question while this is his first run at Cartmel. Trainer has had too few runners here to judge but the jockey has a respectable 10 percent strike rate from ten rides at the track and the horse acts well on good ground with three wins from nine starts.
Evenwood SonofagunKTB Fit 50/100
Evenwood Sonofagun is a useful performer who has won three times at Cartmel including two at today's trip. Recent form of 76-126 shows ability but he can be inconsistent and the first-time headgear suggests connections are looking for a spark. Trainer has a solid 12 percent strike rate here while the jockey is less prolific with a 9 percent record from 35 rides.
RauzanKTB Fit 49/100
Rauzan is a useful performer who has won over today's trip but has been below form on both starts at Cartmel. The yard's solid 12 percent strike rate here and the jockey's 15 percent record give some encouragement, while first-time headgear is now tried. Good ground looks fine on the balance of his record.
Roaring HomeKTB Fit 49/100
Roaring Home is a smart performer who arrives in excellent order after two placed efforts this spring. Drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried which asks a fresh question though his placed record on good ground reads solidly. Trainer and jockey both have established but modest strike rates at Cartmel.
DinonsKTB Fit 48/100
Dinons is a smart 13-year-old who has won at this trip and handles good ground well with eight wins from 20 starts. He showed decent form when third on his latest outing but his only previous run here was poor and he now tries headgear for the first time. Trainer has a solid 15 percent strike rate at Cartmel while the jockey is operating at 7 percent.
KTB verdict
Tommie Beau is the KTB Selection in a race where several high-class performers on their day line up with questions to answer. His three wins from eight starts at Cartmel, allied to decent recent placed form before a stamina stretch last time, make him well suited by the drop back to 2m6f on good ground where he has an excellent record. The selection can capitalise on his course knowledge and proven ability at this venue. Main dangers include Shantwopointfive, who has won both previous starts here and now tries first-time headgear, and Belles Benefit, who brings strong course and trip form along with the yard and jockey's healthy records at Cartmel. Homme Public and Howdoyalikeherhome cannot be entirely discounted if the headgear brings about improvement.
KTB Selection Tommie Beau
This is the narrative read of the 3:47 Cartmel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Cartmel racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest Cartmel course record among the principals?
Tommie Beau has won three times from eight starts at Cartmel, with Shantwopointfive unbeaten in two starts and Belles Benefit successful twice from seven runs.
How many runners are making their first appearance in headgear?
Nine runners are wearing first-time headgear: Shantwopointfive, Belles Benefit, Homme Public, Howdoyalikeherhome, High Dancer, Caughtinyourtrance, Peaky Boy, Evenwood Sonofagun, Rauzan and Dinons.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Cartmel in this field?
Gordon Elliott has a 27 percent strike rate at Cartmel from 64 runs, ahead of Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero on 25 percent from 20 runs.
Which horse has won the most times on good ground?
Tommie Beau and Dinons have each won eight times on good ground, with Dinons successful from 20 starts and Tommie Beau from 23.
Who has the strongest jockey record at Cartmel among those riding in this race?
Harry Bannister has a 29 percent strike rate at Cartmel from 21 rides with an A/E of 2.12, the highest in the field.
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