3:50 Redcar
This Class 5 apprentice fillies’ handicap over the straight mile at Redcar on good to firm ground brings together a compact field of seven three- and four-year-olds. The KTB Fit ratings point to a competitive but not impossible heat, headed by the selection Wild Dahlia on 59, with four principals clearly separated from the rest of the pack. Dropping in class looks a positive for a couple, while first-time headgear appears on four runners in what is expected to be a genuinely-run, fair test.
How the race shapes up
A front-runner is likely to be pressed by several handy types in a genuinely-run race according to the pace shape. Kiss Me My Love is the clearest front-running type from draw 3 and will probably take them along, with prominent runners Thornaby Annie and Only Dream Big expected to apply pressure from her quarters. This sets up a stiff enough test for those coming from off the pace such as the hold-up performer Homestrait, and the key question is whether the selection can slot in effectively from draw 4 and show her best under the first-time headgear.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Wild Dahlia KTB Selection59/100Fair performer who has shown consistent form, winning at this trip and finishing second on her most recent start.
- 2Thornaby Annie54/100Modest performer who has been consistent this year without winning often.
- 3Borjina51/100Modest performer who has shown some ability on her three starts this year, including a win over 7f at this track.
- 4Sandy Craic49/100Modest performer who has been consistent this year with form figures of 325512 and a solid course run when fifth here last time.
- 5Kiss Me My Love48/100Modest performer who has won both starts at this trip and at this track from just one visit.
- 6Homestrait48/100Modest performer with a solid recent record of 742231 that includes two placed efforts at this trip.
- 7Only Dream Big38/100Modest performer who has won once here from two runs at the track and also scored at today's trip.
The contenders
Wild Dahlia KTB Fit 59/100
Wild Dahlia arrives with the highest KTB Fit rating of 59 and is taken to land this race. A fair performer, she has shown consistent form, winning at this trip and finishing second on her most recent start. William Haggas brings a 26% strike rate at Redcar from 223 runs, though Burns is less proven with a 10% record from just 10 rides at the track. She is dropping in class, first-time headgear is now applied to this lightly-raced filly, and she was placed on her only start on good to firm though her going suitability remains unknown from such a small sample. From draw 4 she should be able to find a nice position in a race where the pace is expected to be genuine.
Thornaby Annie KTB Fit 54/100
Thornaby Annie is rated a modest performer on a KTB Fit of 54. She has been consistent this year without winning often, has placed on this track, and handles good to firm ground with one win from five starts and four places. The step back up to a mile looks suitable given her record at the trip, first-time headgear is now added, and the yard’s modest 3% strike rate at Redcar from 89 runs is offset by Jack Nicholls’s strong 25% record from 16 rides at the venue. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, she should be involved in the early battle in what is set to be a genuinely-run contest.
Borjina KTB Fit 51/100
Borjina is another modest performer according to the KTB assessment with a Fit rating of 51. She has shown some ability on her three starts this year, including a win over 7f at this track, though stepping up in trip today for the first time asks a fresh question of her. The yard has a solid 24% strike rate at Redcar from 94 runs while the jockey operates at 9% here from 11 rides. She was placed on one of two starts on good to firm and from a low draw of 2 she may be able to track the pace before seeing how her stamina holds up in a race that should be run at a fair gallop.
Sandy Craic KTB Fit 49/100
Sandy Craic is a modest performer on a KTB Fit of 49. He has been consistent this year with form figures of 325512 and ran a solid race when fifth here last time. He drops back to a trip at which he has placed before though he is yet to win over any distance, and was placed on one of three starts on good to firm. David O’Meara has a 15% strike-rate at Redcar from a large sample of 756 runs while jockey Conor Whiteley is still seeking a first win at the track from seven rides. Drawn widest in 7 he will need to find a rhythm in a genuinely-run mile.
The rest of the field
Kiss Me My LoveKTB Fit 48/100
Kiss Me My Love is a modest performer who has won both starts at this trip and at this track from just one visit. Recent form has been patchy with a clear best effort when second at Thirsk in June but she has been well below that in two runs since, though she is dropping in class, the trainer and jockey both have solid records here, and the good-to-firm ground should be fine for her as a front-runner.
HomestraitKTB Fit 48/100
Homestrait is a modest performer with a solid recent record of 742231 that includes two placed efforts at this trip. First-time headgear is now tried after 16 runs and he steps up from 7f having already shown he can handle the extra distance, with one win from four starts on good to firm. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 350 runs at Redcar while the jockey is still seeking a first winner from just seven rides here, and he will be held up to produce his effort late.
Only Dream BigKTB Fit 38/100
Only Dream Big is a modest performer who has won once here from two runs at the track and also scored at today’s trip. Recent form has been patchy with a pair of wins followed by two heavy defeats, and he has never placed on good to firm ground in three tries. First-time headgear is now fitted while the yard’s modest strike rate at Redcar adds no real confidence, though he should race prominently from draw 6.
KTB verdict
Wild Dahlia is the KTB Selection. A fair performer with consistent form, a win at this trip and a second on her latest start, she drops in class, receives first-time headgear, and represents a yard with a strong record at Redcar. She has the best KTB Fit rating and should be suited by the anticipated genuine pace. The main dangers are Thornaby Annie, who brings course placings, good-to-firm form and a strong jockey record at the venue, and Borjina, who won over 7f here earlier this season though the longer trip is an unknown. Sandy Craic rounds off the principals having shown consistency and a recent solid effort at the track.
KTB Selection Wild Dahlia
This is the narrative read of the 3:50 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping in class and wearing first-time headgear while representing a trainer with a 26% strike rate at Redcar?
Wild Dahlia
How many wins has Thornaby Annie recorded on good to firm ground from five starts?
1 win from 5 on good to firm (4 placed)
What is the course record of the horse that won over 7f here earlier this season?
No course form on record
Which runner has won both its starts at this trip and at this track from a single visit?
Kiss Me My Love
How many runs has Homestrait had before first-time headgear is applied?
after 16 runs
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