4:20 Redcar
This Class 6 apprentice handicap over 5f 217y at Redcar on good to firm ground brings together nine limited performers, several with course form but few in strong recent nick. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 56 and 35, reflecting a modest standard where small margins and the application of first-time headgear on four runners could prove decisive. Overall the numbers point to a race that is difficult to read with confidence, though Stormy Pearl edges the Fit ranking as the selection.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape rated unclear and low confidence in the run-style data across the field, it is hard to be certain how the race will unfold. Several runners have a history of racing prominently or from off the pace, but the lack of definitive evidence means the key question is whether the race develops into a sprint or a more even gallop. The draw may matter more than usual on this straight track, particularly from the lower stalls, while those held up will need a clear run if the leaders go hard early.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Stormy Pearl KTB Selection56/100Limited performer who has won at this track and at today's trip but is now 0-15 since her last success.
- 2Mrs Trump54/100Limited performer who has won twice at this track from five runs and also has three wins at today's trip.
- 3Due Respect51/100Limited class performer who has won once in five runs at this track.
- 4Dolly's Delight48/100Limited class performer who has been consistent enough without winning for some time, finishing no better than sixth in five runs this year.
- 5Golden Prosperity47/100Limited performer who has been around a long time and rarely threatens to win.
- 6Night Emperor44/100Limited performer who has shown only modest form in recent starts and was well held when sixth on his only previous run here.
- 7South Shore Island43/100Limited horse who has shown only modest form in recent starts and remains winless after 26 runs.
- 8Valsharah41/100Limited performer who has been running to form without winning lately, finishing second twice in similar company over this trip.
- 9Captain Bentley35/100Limited horse who has struggled for form in recent starts and finished eighth on his only previous visit to this track.
The contenders
Stormy Pearl KTB Fit 56/100
Stormy Pearl is a limited performer who has won at this track and at today's trip, though she is now 0-15 since her last success. She has shown the odd bit of form this year yet has been regressive of late, and the first-time headgear is a sign that something needs to change. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Redcar from 244 runs adds little confidence, though the jockey's 15% record here from 41 rides is more positive. She has two wins from 12 starts on good to firm and won once from 12 runs at the course. Her recent form reads -25430 and she carries a KTB Fit of 56 as the selection from draw 6.
Mrs Trump KTB Fit 54/100
Mrs Trump is a limited performer who has won twice at this track from five runs and also has three wins at today's trip. She has been out of form this year with a string of modest efforts and is now on her 42nd career start. The trainer's 8% strike rate at Redcar is offset by the jockey's strong 25% record here from 16 rides. She has one win from 12 starts on good to firm and her course form stands at two wins from five runs. Recent form is 8-7678 and she is rated 54 on KTB Fit from draw 2.
Due Respect KTB Fit 51/100
Due Respect is a limited class performer who has won once in five runs at this track. She drops back to 5f today after a string of modest efforts at longer trips and remains winless in seven attempts at the distance. The trainer holds a solid 11% strike rate at Redcar, while the jockey is still seeking a first Redcar success from 46 rides. She has been placed twice from five starts on good to firm without winning. Her recent form is -75048 and she is rated 51 on KTB Fit from draw 3.
Dolly's Delight KTB Fit 48/100
Dolly's Delight is a limited class performer who has been consistent enough without winning for some time, finishing no better than sixth in five runs this year. She has shown she handles good to firm ground and has placed at today's trip, though her sole run here produced only a midfield finish. The trainer has a solid 10% strike rate at Redcar while the jockey is still seeking her first win at the track from six rides. Recent form reads -65685 and she is rated 48 on KTB Fit from draw 4.
The rest of the field
Golden ProsperityKTB Fit 47/100
Golden Prosperity is a limited performer who has been around a long time and rarely threatens to win. Recent form is ordinary and three runs here have produced just one placing from poor draws. First-time headgear is tried today while stepping back up to a trip he has won over before. Rated 47 on KTB Fit from draw 7.
Night EmperorKTB Fit 44/100
Night Emperor is a limited performer who has shown only modest form in recent starts and was well held when sixth on his only previous run here. He drops back to 5f today having last run over 7f, a trip at which he has placed without winning. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Redcar is offset by the jockey's solid 14% record at the track. Rated 44 on KTB Fit from draw 8 and usually held up.
South Shore IslandKTB Fit 43/100
South Shore Island is a limited horse who has shown only modest form in recent starts and remains winless after 26 runs. She has placed on good to firm ground and at today's trip but without winning, and first-time headgear is now tried to spark improvement. Trainer and jockey both make their first appearance at Redcar. Rated 43 on KTB Fit from draw 9.
ValsharahKTB Fit 41/100
Valsharah is a limited performer who has been running to form without winning lately, finishing second twice in similar company over this trip. She has placed on good to firm ground but is still winless after 27 starts and first-time headgear is now tried. The trainer has a modest record here while the jockey is yet to score from his seven rides at the track. Rated 41 on KTB Fit from draw 1.
Captain BentleyKTB Fit 35/100
Captain Bentley is a limited horse who has struggled for form in recent starts and finished eighth on his only previous visit to this track. He has shown a bit of ability on good to firm ground with a win and a place from eight runs but steps up in trip today having failed to place in five previous attempts at this distance. The trainer has no recorded runners here while the jockey has only three rides at the track which is too small a sample to judge. Rated 35 on KTB Fit from draw 5.
KTB verdict
Stormy Pearl is the KTB Selection. She has won at the track and trip before, and while she is now 0-15 since her last success the first-time headgear may help to arrest her recent regression. The selection has the highest KTB Fit rating in a field of modest performers where several others also bring course form. Mrs Trump and Due Respect look the main dangers on the back of their respective records at Redcar, while Dolly's Delight and those in first-time headgear add further depth to what remains a tricky race to call with the pace shape unclear.
KTB Selection Stormy Pearl
This is the narrative read of the 4:20 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping back in trip from longer distances?
Due Respect drops back to 5f today after a string of modest efforts at longer trips.
How many runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Four runners are wearing first-time headgear: Stormy Pearl, Golden Prosperity, South Shore Island and Valsharah.
Which horse has the strongest jockey record at Redcar?
Jack Nicholls has a 25% strike rate at Redcar from 16 rides when riding Mrs Trump.
Has any horse won more than once at this track?
Mrs Trump has won twice at this track from five runs.
Which horse has the most career starts?
Mrs Trump is now on her 42nd career start.
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