4:00 Wexford
This 2m3f20y Wexfordraces.ie Handicap Steeplechase on good ground brings together a compact field of nine in which class is relatively evenly spread. The KTB Fit ratings identify Leave In Secret and Tequila Talkin' as holding slight edges on the numbers, though the race looks open with four principals rated within eight points of each other. First-time headgear is a recurring theme, applied to eight of the nine runners, and the steadily-run nature of the contest is likely to place the emphasis on tactical positioning and late finishing ability.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay dividends. With the majority of the field, including all four principals, tending to be held up and produce their efforts late, the race is set to develop into a test of timing from off the pace. The key question is whether any horse can quicken decisively off a modest gallop or whether the race will fall to the one best placed to pounce in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Leave In Secret KTB Selection63/100Smart performer who has run well enough in defeat on both previous visits to Wexford.
- 2Tequila Talkin'61/100Useful performer who has won once in five runs at Wexford and holds solid placed form on good ground.
- 3Freddie Robdal55/100Smart performer who has won once from four starts at Wexford and arrives in reasonable form after a solid fourth last time.
- 4Beggars Rock55/100Smart performer who has been out of form for some time and showed little spark when well held in his last two starts.
- 5Avec Espoir52/100Avec Espoir is a fair 13-year-old who has won once in eight runs at Wexford.
- 6Following Orders52/100Useful performer who has shown enough in races here to suggest he can be competitive at this level.
- 7Centreofattention51/100Useful performer who has placed on his only visit to Wexford and showed his best effort when runner-up last time.
- 8Temptationinmilan49/100Useful performer who has shown little spark in two runs this season and was pulled up last time.
- 9Oneforgonzo45/100Useful performer who showed a bit of spark when winning at this trip on softer ground earlier this season.
The contenders
Leave In Secret KTB Fit 63/100
Leave In Secret is a smart performer who has run well enough in defeat on both previous visits to Wexford. He steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in three previous attempts at this distance and the first-time headgear is an unknown. The seven-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late, a run-style that should suit the anticipated steadily-run race. Trainer Thomas Gibney has an 11% strike rate at Wexford from 53 runs while jockey James Smith has a 7% strike rate from 14 rides at the track; both records are modest. The KTB Fit rating of 63 identifies him as the clear top horse on the numbers.
Tequila Talkin' KTB Fit 61/100
Tequila Talkin' is a useful performer who has won once in five runs at Wexford and holds solid placed form on good ground. He steps up in trip today having last run over much shorter, which asks a fresh question, while the first-time headgear is another unknown. Like the selection he is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer Paul Nolan has a respectable 14% strike rate at Wexford from 330 runs although the jockey's 4% strike rate from 23 rides is modest. The KTB Fit rating of 61 places him right behind the selection and he is entitled to serious respect.
Freddie Robdal KTB Fit 55/100
Freddie Robdal is a smart performer who has won once from four starts at Wexford and arrives in reasonable form after a solid fourth last time. He has been competitive on good ground without winning and is now tried in first-time headgear having failed to land a blow at this trip on his only previous attempt. The nine-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer Henry De Bromhead has a solid 19% strike rate at the track from 359 runs while the claiming jockey has had too few rides here to judge. The KTB Fit rating of 55 keeps him firmly in the mix.
Beggars Rock KTB Fit 55/100
Beggars Rock is a smart performer who has been out of form for some time and showed little spark when well held in his last two starts. He drops back from three miles today having been placed at this trip before, while first-time headgear is now tried. The seven-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer Ian Patrick Donoghue has a modest 7% strike rate at Wexford from 27 runs which is offset by jockey Kevin Sexton's solid 11% strike rate from 102 rides at the track. Rated 55 on the KTB Fit scale he completes the quartet of principal contenders.
The rest of the field
Avec EspoirKTB Fit 52/100
Avec Espoir is a fair 13-year-old who has won once in eight runs at Wexford. He drops back in trip today having failed to score in two previous attempts at this distance, and his recent form is poor. The trainer holds a solid 9% strike rate here while the jockey is operating at 6%.
Following OrdersKTB Fit 52/100
Following Orders is a useful performer who has shown enough in races here to suggest he can be competitive at this level. He has form on good ground but recent efforts have been poor and the first-time headgear is an unknown. Drops back in trip today which asks a fresh question of him.
CentreofattentionKTB Fit 51/100
Centreofattention is a useful performer who has placed on his only visit to Wexford and showed his best effort when runner-up last time. He steps up in trip today having never won at this distance and the first-time headgear is an unknown. Trainer and jockey both operate at modest strike rates here.
TemptationinmilanKTB Fit 49/100
Temptationinmilan is a useful performer who has shown little spark in two runs this season and was pulled up last time. He has placed on good ground but is 0-3 at this trip and has been well held in both starts here. First-time headgear is a possible plus while the jockey has a solid record at Wexford.
OneforgonzoKTB Fit 45/100
Oneforgonzo is a useful performer who showed a bit of spark when winning at this trip on softer ground earlier this season. He drops back from 2m6f today with first-time headgear, though he has failed to place in three runs on good ground. Trainer has a modest 6% strike rate here from 31 runs while the jockey is still seeking her first Wexford winner from eight rides.
KTB verdict
Leave In Secret is the KTB Selection. He has run creditably in defeat on both previous visits to Wexford and the steadily-run affair should suit his held-up style of racing. The first-time headgear remains an unknown and he has yet to show his best at this trip, yet the KTB Fit rating of 63 marks him out as the most solid option on balance. Tequila Talkin' and Freddie Robdal head the list of dangers, both boasting good course form and placed efforts on good ground, while Beggars Rock cannot be entirely dismissed if the headgear sparks a revival.
KTB Selection Leave In Secret
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 8 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Leave In Secret | 13/8 | Bet365 |
| Tequila Talkin' | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| Freddie Robdal | 9/2 | Unibet |
| Beggars Rock | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Avec Espoir | 50/1 | Bet365 |
| Following Orders | 28/1 | LiveScore Bet |
| Centreofattention | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Temptationinmilan | 40/1 | Bet365 |
| Oneforgonzo | 10/1 | Unibet |
This is the narrative read of the 4:00 Wexford. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wexford racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the KTB Selection and what is its Fit rating?
Leave In Secret is the KTB Selection with a Fit rating of 63.
How many runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Eight of the nine runners are wearing first-time headgear.
What is the expected pace shape of the race?
The race lacks a leader and is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Wexford among those represented?
Henry De Bromhead has a 19% strike rate at Wexford from 359 runs.
Which horse has the best course record in the field?
Tequila Talkin' and Freddie Robdal have both won at Wexford.
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