4:40 Nottingham
This Class 6 classified stakes over the minimum trip at Nottingham brings together a field of nine limited performers, several of whom are reaching for first-time headgear in the hope of finding improvement. The KTB Fit ratings point to a race with little depth, headed by Washington Heir on a mark of 60, with the remainder tightly bunched between 52 and 30. Conditions are unproven for the majority of the runners, adding a layer of uncertainty to a contest where recent form is modest at best.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape rated unclear and low on confidence owing to insufficient run-style data, it is difficult to forecast how the race will unfold. Several runners have a history of racing prominently or from off the pace, but without clear evidence the field may settle into a steady gallop. The key question is whether any horse can impose itself early or if the race will be decided by those finishing strongly in the closing stages over this stiff 5f.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Washington Heir KTB Selection60/100Limited performer who has shown enough to win a 5f race and placed again at that trip.
- 2Captain Kinsella52/100Limited horse who has shown very little spark in recent starts and now tries first-time headgear off the back of a string of modest efforts.
- 3Sir Benedict46/100Limited horse who has been knocking on the door without winning lately and now tries first-time headgear.
- 4Antiphon42/100Limited horse who has been placed without winning in three runs at this track and has scored three times at this trip from 27 attempts.
- 5Rinky Tinky Tinky42/100Limited performer who has won once in three runs at Nottingham but has shown very little spark in two starts this year.
- 6Baileys Ontherocks42/100Limited performer who has shown little spark in 12 starts and finished no better than sixth in two runs here.
- 7Ganthorpe42/100Ganthorpe is a limited performer who has shown little since two wins on soft ground last summer.
- 8Desert Master32/100Desert Master is a limited performer who has been busy this year and often finds a few too good.
- 9Jackie Brown30/100Limited performer who has been out of the frame on his last four starts and is now dropping back to 5f having failed to win in eight previous attempts at the tr…
The contenders
Washington Heir KTB Fit 60/100
Washington Heir is the KTB Selection. A limited performer, he has shown enough to win a 5f race and has placed again at the trip. He drops back from 6f today having looked as though the extra furlong stretched him last time out. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Nottingham from a big sample is a negative, while the horse has no experience of this track or the ground. Jack Doughty takes the ride and brings a 23% strike rate at the course with an A/E of 1.79 from 26 rides, which offers some encouragement. Recent form figures of -59013 underline that he is competitive at this level when conditions suit.
Captain Kinsella KTB Fit 52/100
Captain Kinsella is a limited horse who has shown very little spark in recent starts and now tries first-time headgear off the back of a string of modest efforts. He has won at this trip in the past but his overall record suggests he struggles to produce his best often enough. Trainer John Gallagher has a solid 12% strike rate at Nottingham from 124 runs while Rhys Clutterbuck takes the ride with a 14% strike rate and A/E of 1.05 from 28 rides at the track. Recent form of 867745 paints a picture of a horse finding it hard to make an impact. He remains unproven on the ground and has no course form on record.
Sir Benedict KTB Fit 46/100
Sir Benedict is a limited horse who has been knocking on the door without winning lately and now tries first-time headgear. He did win on his only previous run here and has scored four times at this trip. The yard is 0-18 at Nottingham and he remains unproven on this ground. Andrew Mullen is in the saddle with a 12% strike rate and A/E of 1.19 from 240 rides at the course. Recent form figures of 254346 reflect a horse who has been competitive but is yet to land a recent victory. The high number of recent runs gives confidence in his fitness levels at this level.
Antiphon KTB Fit 42/100
Antiphon is a limited horse who has been placed without winning in three runs at this track and has scored three times at this trip from 27 attempts. Recent form of 333-90 suggests he is struggling to find his best and the first-time headgear is now reached for. Trainer Mike Murphy has a modest 7% strike rate from 54 runs here while the jockey Callum Hutchinson has a 3% strike rate and A/E of 0.23 from 39 rides at Nottingham. He has no win or place to his name from three starts at the course. The drop in trip may help him return to something like his best.
The rest of the field
Rinky Tinky TinkyKTB Fit 42/100
Rinky Tinky Tinky is a limited performer who has won once in three runs at Nottingham but has shown very little spark in two starts this year. She drops back to 5f for the first time in a while having failed to trouble the judge at that trip previously, and she remains unproven on the current surface with first-time headgear now applied.
Baileys OntherocksKTB Fit 42/100
Baileys Ontherocks is a limited performer who has shown little spark in 12 starts and finished no better than sixth in two runs here. First-time headgear is a possible plus but the yard's modest 6% strike rate at Nottingham offers little encouragement. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the trip looks about right and the recent form figures suggest he is at least competitive at this level on his best days.
GanthorpeKTB Fit 42/100
Ganthorpe is a limited performer who has shown little since two wins on soft ground last summer. He ran respectably when fifth over course and distance on his penultimate start but was well held last time back at 6f. The drop back to 5f asks a fresh question while he remains unproven on this ground.
Desert MasterKTB Fit 32/100
Desert Master is a limited performer who has been busy this year and often finds a few too good. He has shown some ability at this track with a second and a fourth from two runs but his trainer is operating at a 2% strike rate here from 44 attempts. Dropping back to 5f is a plus as he has won at the trip before though he is unproven on this ground and tries headgear for the first time.
Jackie BrownKTB Fit 30/100
Jackie Brown is a limited performer who has been out of the frame on his last four starts and is now dropping back to 5f having failed to win in eight previous attempts at the trip. First-time headgear is tried and the yard's modest 4% strike rate at Nottingham offers little encouragement. Going remains an unknown.
KTB verdict
Washington Heir is the KTB Selection and sets the standard on his ability to win over 5f and place again at the trip. Dropping back in distance after looking stretched by 6f last time should suit, and while the trainer's record at Nottingham is modest he has the services of Jack Doughty who performs well at the track. The main dangers are Sir Benedict, who won on his only previous run here and is knocking on the door, and Captain Kinsella, who tries first-time headgear after a string of modest efforts but has won at the distance before. Antiphon cannot be entirely dismissed given his placed efforts at the track, but the remainder of the field look limited and short of spark.
KTB Selection Washington Heir
This is the narrative read of the 4:40 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and is the selection?
Washington Heir with a KTB Fit Score of 60/100.
How many of the runners are trying first-time headgear?
Six runners are trying first-time headgear: Captain Kinsella, Sir Benedict, Antiphon, Rinky Tinky Tinky, Baileys Ontherocks and Desert Master, plus Jackie Brown.
Which horse has won on its only previous visit to Nottingham?
Sir Benedict, who has course form of 1 from 1.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Nottingham for the yard of the selection?
Tony Carroll has a 6% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 0.67 from 309 runs.
Which runner is usually held up and produces its effort late?
Baileys Ontherocks, with limited evidence and low confidence.
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