4:40 Perth
The 4:40 at Perth is a Class 5 Brooks Macdonald Handicap Steeple Chase over an extended two and three-quarter miles on good ground. A field of seven runners lines up, with the KTB numbers highlighting a competitive but exposed bunch where four principals stand out on recent form and course connections. The race features several horses dropping in class and the introduction of first-time headgear on more than one contender.
How the race shapes up
With a strong pace confidently expected, multiple habitual front-runners including Le Malin, Edgewell and Mcgregors Charge are set to take the race along at a decent clip. This shape could see the pace collapse in the latter stages, playing into the hands of hold-up performers such as Button Rock, Shantou Show, Ballydangan and Collingham. The key question is whether the prominent runners can sustain their effort or if the race will fall into the lap of a patient closer.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Le Malin KTB Selection76/100Useful performer who showed he retains ability when third at Down Royal last time.
- 2Edgewell68/100Useful performer who arrives in good heart after two wins in his last three starts.
- 3Button Rock64/100Button Rock is a useful performer who won nicely here over hurdles on his only previous visit to Perth.
- 4Shantou Show61/100Shantou Show is a useful performer on his day with two wins at today's trip from six attempts.
- 5Mcgregors Charge56/100Fair performer who won on his only previous run here at Perth.
- 6Ballydangan46/100Fair performer who has placed here once and shown competitive form on good ground.
- 7Collingham45/100Useful performer who has shown bits of form this year but has been inconsistent overall with a recent pulled-up effort.
The contenders
Le Malin KTB Fit 76/100
Le Malin is a useful performer who showed he retains ability when third at Down Royal last time out. He drops back from three and a half miles to a trip at which he has failed to win in two previous attempts, though he is competitive on good ground having been placed once from two starts. The 12-year-old tends to make the running or race prominently with high confidence and will be suited by the anticipated strong pace. Trainer S McParlan holds an 18% strike rate at Perth with an A/E of 1.62 from 17 runs, while jockey Mr N McParlan has a 17% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.22 from 42 rides. This represents a drop in class and the yard's solid Perth record offers encouragement despite this being the horse's first run at the venue.
Edgewell KTB Fit 68/100
Edgewell is a useful performer who arrives in good heart after two wins in his last three starts. He possesses a solid record on good ground with five wins from 19 starts and has already won twice over today's trip. The 8-year-old tends to make the running or race prominently and will be right at home in the strong pace that is anticipated. First-time headgear is now applied, which remains the main unknown as he makes his debut at Perth. Trainer Nick Scholfield has no course record but boasts a 29% strike rate overall from 14 runs, while jockey Harry Reed holds a 13% strike rate at Perth with an A/E of 1.06 from 88 rides. This is another drop in class.
Button Rock KTB Fit 64/100
Button Rock is a useful performer who won nicely here over hurdles on his only previous visit to Perth. He showed improved form when scoring at Hexham last time and steps up in trip today, which asks a fresh question. The 6-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence, which could be ideal given the strong pace likely to be set up front. He has a fine record on good ground with one win and a place from two starts and has the right connections at this track. Trainer Andrew Hamilton has a 7% strike rate at Perth with an A/E of 1.05 from 83 runs, while jockey Derek Fox has a 9% strike rate at the venue with an A/E of 0.75 from 373 rides. This represents a drop in class.
Shantou Show KTB Fit 61/100
Shantou Show is a useful performer on his day with two wins at today's trip from six attempts. He has been inconsistent lately, culminating in a pulled-up effort last time, and now tries first-time headgear while dropping back from three miles. The 10-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence, a style that should suit the race's strong pace. He is competitive on good ground having been placed once from six starts. Trainer Noel C Kelly has an 11% strike rate at Perth with an A/E of 0.77 from 45 runs, but jockey Sean Bowen is a strong booking with a 32% strike rate at the track and an A/E of 1.11 from 341 rides.
The rest of the field
Mcgregors ChargeKTB Fit 56/100
Mcgregors Charge is a fair performer who won on his only previous run here at Perth. He has shown only modest form this season with a string of lesser efforts and now tries first-time headgear while dropping back from three and a quarter miles to a trip he has won over before. The 8-year-old tends to make the running or race prominently with high confidence and his going record is nothing special on good ground with one win from 12 starts.
BallydanganKTB Fit 46/100
Ballydangan is a fair performer who has placed here once and shown competitive form on good ground with two places from nine starts. He steps up in trip today having won twice at this distance in the past, though his recent form has been patchy with three pulled-ups in his last five starts. The 9-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence.
CollinghamKTB Fit 45/100
Collingham is a useful performer who has shown bits of form this year but has been inconsistent overall with a recent pulled-up effort. He has six wins on good ground from 16 starts and is now tried in first-time headgear, though he was well held on his only previous run at this track and has yet to show much at this trip. The 8-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence.
KTB verdict
Le Malin is the KTB Selection. He showed he retains ability when third at Down Royal last time, drops in class, and has the prominent run style that should see him take a strong pace along to his liking. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Perth which adds to the appeal. The main dangers are Edgewell, who arrives in good heart after recent wins and has a strong record on good ground and at the trip, and Button Rock, who won nicely on his only previous visit to Perth and is ideally suited to the expected pace collapse as a hold-up performer. Shantou Show cannot be entirely dismissed either if the first-time headgear helps him return to his best.
KTB Selection Le Malin
This is the narrative read of the 4:40 Perth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Perth racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping back in trip from three and a half miles?
Le Malin drops back from 3m1½f to a trip he has failed to win at in two previous attempts.
How many of the seven runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Four runners are wearing first-time headgear: Edgewell, Shantou Show, Mcgregors Charge and Collingham.
Which horse has won over hurdles on its only previous visit to Perth?
Button Rock won here over hurdles on his only previous visit to Perth.
Which jockey has the highest strike rate at Perth among those riding in this race?
Sean Bowen has a 32% strike rate at Perth with an A/E of 1.11 from 341 rides.
Which horses are expected to race prominently in a race with a strong pace likely?
Le Malin, Edgewell and Mcgregors Charge all tend to make the running or race on the pace.
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