4:07 Navan
This Irish EBF Auction Series Maiden for two-year-olds over 5f at Navan on good ground brings together a field of largely unexposed or modest performers in a race that lacks any standout established form. The KTB Fit ratings reflect a modest standard overall, with the top four separated by just 11 points and the remainder closely bunched behind them. With no obvious leader in a nine-runner field, the pace shape points to a steadily-run, tactical contest where positioning and timing will be key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of any natural front-runner, suggesting the race will be steadily-run with the field likely to bunch early. Several runners prefer to be held up, including the selection Sadie Rose, Bit Of A Buzz and Scarlet Dream, which could lead to a sprint finish off a slow tempo. Being handy may pay in such a tactical affair, posing the key question of whether any horse can produce a decisive late effort or if one of the less-exposed newcomers can capitalise on the shape.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Sadie Rose KTB Selection58/100
Sadie Rose has been beaten a long way in both starts to date and arrives with a very modest level of form. The drop back to 5f is an unknown that could suit or expose her further. She is usually held up and produces her effort late, which could be relevant in a steadily-run affair. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.71 from 53 runs while the jockey records a 6% strike rate with an A/E of 0.99 from 106 rides. Both have established but modest records at the track and she has had one run on good ground without placing.
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2Bit Of A Buzz53/100
Bit Of A Buzz is a modest performer who has been consistent rather than progressive, placing twice at this trip from five attempts without managing to get his head in front. The yard has a solid 9% strike rate at Navan from a big sample of 476 runs while the jockey is operating at 6% here from 447 rides. He is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence in that assessment. Data confidence is high but the small going sample leaves that side of things unknown, though he has placed three times from four starts on good ground.
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3Lady Romagna47/100
Lady Romagna is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so the assessment rests on pedigree and sales background. The yard has a modest 9% strike-rate at Navan from a large sample of 336 runs. Jockey Leigh Roche also shows a steady rather than flashy 8% strike-rate at the track from 333 rides. By Saxon Warrior, whose progeny have a 12% overall win rate from 2868 runners, she represents a yard and rider combination that has posted a 9% strike rate together from 208 runners with an A/E of 1.12.
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4Scarlet Dream47/100
Scarlet Dream has shown little in two starts so far, finishing seventh then ninth. The drop back from 7f to 5f poses a fresh question while the yard's modest 5% strike rate at Navan from a big sample of 312 runs offers little encouragement. She is usually held up and produces her effort late, though that read is based on limited evidence with low confidence. Jockey Adam Caffrey has a fair 7% record at the track from 83 rides and she has had one run on good ground without placing.
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5Annie Batt45/100
Annie Batt showed some promise when placed over this trip on debut but was well beaten in a stronger race at this track last time. She drops back to 5f having looked stretched by 6f. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Navan and the small sample means this lightly-raced filly is hard to weigh up with any confidence. She has placed once from two starts on good ground and finished 14th on her sole course visit.
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6Gus Mccrae44/100
Gus Mccrae is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 13% strike rate at Navan from 1805 runs. Colin Keane takes the ride and has a 14% record at the track himself from 575 rides. With no racecourse form to go on the pedigree and sales background will decide how much interest there is. By Nando Parrado, whose progeny have a 7% overall win rate from 332 runners.
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7Somethingaboutlove41/100
Somethingaboutlove is a debutant with limited information available beyond pedigree and sales background. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 18 runs at Navan while the jockey records a modest 5% from 497 rides here. With low data confidence this looks like one to watch for clues rather than get involved with. By Soldier's Call, whose progeny have a 9% overall win rate from 1987 runners.
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8Best Love40/100
Best Love is a modest performer who has shown little in four starts to date and was well beaten when last seen. He has run three times at this trip without success and the small sample makes going suitability hard to judge. Trainer and jockey both have solid rather than sparkling records at Navan. He is usually held up and produces his effort late based on limited evidence with low confidence and has had two runs on good ground without placing.
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9Cyclone Code38/100
Cyclone Code has shown only modest form in two starts over 6f and now drops back to the minimum trip for the first time. That distance switch asks a fresh question of a horse with very limited experience. The yard has too small a sample at Navan to judge while the jockey's 3% strike rate from 120 rides here is poor. He has had two runs on good ground without placing and typically settles in midfield.
KTB verdict
Sadie Rose is the KTB Selection in a race where the standard is modest and several runners bring very limited or patchy form. She has been beaten a long way in both starts but the drop to 5f is an unknown that could help, and the steadily-run shape may suit her held-up style. The main dangers are likely to come from Bit Of A Buzz, who has shown consistency at this trip with placed efforts, and the two interesting newcomers Lady Romagna and Gus Mccrae, whose pedigrees and powerful connections could see them improve past those with form.
KTB Selection Sadie Rose
This is the narrative read of the 4:07 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Sadie Rose rated the selection despite modest form figures of 00?
The drop back to 5f is an unknown that could suit or expose her further while the steadily-run shape may play to her held-up run style.
Which horses are expected to be held up in the early stages?
Sadie Rose, Bit Of A Buzz, Scarlet Dream, Annie Batt and Best Love are all described as usually held up and producing their effort late.
What does the pace shape suggest for race tactics?
Lacks a leader with medium confidence so it is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
How does the trainer and jockey combination for Gus Mccrae rate at Navan?
Trainer Noel Meade has a 13% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.76 from 1805 runs while jockey Colin Keane has a 14% strike rate with an A/E of 0.83 from 575 rides.
What is the going record for Bit Of A Buzz?
Placed 3 of 4 on good ground though competitive without winning.
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