4:38 Navan
This 5f handicap at Navan on good ground features a competitive 18-runner field where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. Bad Boy Rizz heads the ratings on 59 with the next four principals all sitting on 53-54, underlining how little separates many of these on paper. With no obvious front-runner the race is set up to be tactical, and several runners have placed form at the track without winning.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay. Most of the field, including all five principals, tend to be held up and produce their efforts late, so the key question is which of these closers can time their run best off a modest gallop. Those drawn lower and able to track the pace without using up too much energy may hold an edge in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Bad Boy Rizz KTB Selection59/100
Bad Boy Rizz is a fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track from just two runs here. He drops back to 5f having looked stretched at 6f last time while his record on good ground shows placed efforts but no win. The trainer holds an 8% strike rate at Navan from 156 runs while the jockey is operating at 14% from 575 rides. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and is drawn in stall 16. His recent form of 1-2354 suggests he remains competitive in a race of this nature.
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2Amerilis54/100
Amerilis is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes a win and two placings in her last three starts. She has already shown she handles this trip, has won on good ground and finished a clear second when she ran here before. The yard has yet to strike at Navan from seven runners while the jockey maintains a steady 11% strike rate over a big sample of rides at the track. Usually held up, she produces her effort late and is drawn in stall 15. Her form figures of 492621 underline that she arrives in decent order.
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3Cuban Grey53/100
Cuban Grey is a fair handicapper who has placed three times from six runs at Navan without winning. He drops back to 5f today having won seven times at the trip in the past, though his most recent form over 6f has been patchy. The trainer remains winless from 32 runs at the track while the jockey has a solid 9% strike rate here. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and is drawn in stall 3. His form of 179435 reflects a horse capable of bouncing back at this trip.
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4Bold Optimist53/100
Bold Optimist is a modest performer who has been placed a few times without winning. He has shown some ability at this track and on good ground, while the drop back to 5f looks a plus given his two wins at the trip. First-time headgear is an unknown on a horse whose recent form has been ordinary. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and is drawn in stall 6. The trainer has a 14% strike rate at Navan from 14 runs while the jockey is on 9% from 260 rides.
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5Gotta Catch'em All53/100
Gotta Catch'em All is a fair sort who has won over C&D and arrives in decent nick judged on recent form figures of 611293. He drops back to an untried 5f today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer's modest record here is offset by the jockey's solid Navan strike rate. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and is drawn in stall 2. He has won twice from nine starts on good ground.
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6Prairie Girl53/100
Prairie Girl is a fair performer who has won three times at this trip from eight attempts and arrives in decent form after a fourth last time. She has handled good ground in the past though without winning on it and makes her first visit to Navan today. The trainer has a modest 3% strike rate here from 32 runs while the jockey is 6% from 16 rides. Usually held up, she produces her effort late.
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7Dandyville52/100
Dandyville is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and long race record yet has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. He now drops back to an untried 5f for the first time while making his first visit to Navan. The trainer holds a 4% strike rate here from 53 runs and the jockey is operating at 10% from 673 rides. He typically settles in midfield.
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8Shadow Of The Moon51/100
Shadow Of The Moon is a modest performer who has won once over this trip on good ground. Recent form is patchy with a string of poor efforts after an early win and the first-time headgear is now reached for. Trainer has a modest 5% strike rate at Navan while the jockey fares a little better at 7%. Usually held up, he produces his effort late.
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9Harry's Hill50/100
Harry's Hill is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and showed his best at this trip when winning last time out. He has placed once from five starts at Navan without winning and handles good ground well enough with five wins from 21 runs. The trainer's modest 8% strike rate here and the jockey's 4% record add little encouragement. He typically settles in midfield.
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10Happy Henry49/100
Happy Henry is a modest performer who has won once from four runs at Navan and also has two wins from 13 starts at this trip. He has shown consistent form this year with figures of 313159 and handles good ground having won twice from eight starts on it. The trainer has a 9% strike rate here from 336 runs while the jockey is operating at 8% from 333 rides. Usually held up, he produces his effort late.
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11Cashel Blue47/100
Cashel Blue is a modest performer who has shown some spark at this track with a placing from two runs. He drops back to 5f having won at the trip before and acts on good ground. First-time headgear is now applied. Usually held up, he produces his effort late.
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12Gonna Be Golden46/100
Gonna Be Golden is a modest performer who has failed to win in nine starts and looks up against it from stall 18. Trainer and jockey both operate at a steady 8% strike rate here at Navan with figures close to expectations. Has shown little on good ground in two attempts and remains winless in three runs at this trip. Usually held up, he produces his effort late.
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13Treasured Royal45/100
Treasured Royal is a modest performer who has won once from just one run at Navan. He drops back to 5f today having failed to score in four previous attempts at the trip and his recent form has been ordinary. Trainer and jockey both have below-average records at the track. Usually held up, he produces his effort late.
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14Alnofoor43/100
Alnofoor is a limited performer who has won once from four runs at Navan. He drops back to 5f having won at the trip before but showed no spark on good ground in four previous attempts. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at the track. Usually held up, he produces his effort late.
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15Buddy Batt43/100
Buddy Batt is a modest performer who has won four times at this trip from 17 starts but has been out of form for some time with a recent record of 31560. He has run only once at Navan and showed little, while the trainer’s 5% strike rate from 85 runs here and the jockey’s 5% from 497 rides underline the yard and rider’s modest record at the track. Goes well enough on good ground but has never won or placed from four attempts. Usually held up, he produces his effort late.
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16Sovereign Cry43/100
Sovereign Cry is a fair performer who has won twice at this trip but looks stretched by the wide draw in a competitive sprint. He ran no sort of race when last seen at this track and the trainer's modest 3% strike-rate at Navan offers little encouragement. The 7 lb claimer helps on the weights but the jockey is still seeking her first winner here from 12 rides. Usually held up, he produces his effort late.
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17Mint Man42/100
Mint Man is a modest performer who has shown bits of form this year but has been largely out of form on his last few starts. At this track he has never been placed in four runs and the trainer also has a poor record here. He drops back to 5f where he has won once before though he is drawn widest of all in stall 17. Usually held up, he produces his effort late.
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18Beach Barbie40/100
Beach Barbie is a modest performer who has shown some consistency, finishing in the frame on her most recent start over this trip. She has placed once in three runs at this distance without winning and holds solid course connections through her trainer. The yard has a 9% strike rate at Navan from 420 runs while the jockey is operating at 4% from 119 rides here. She typically settles in midfield.
KTB verdict
Bad Boy Rizz is the KTB Selection. He has already shown he can win over this trip and at this track, and the drop back to 5f after looking stretched at 6f last time should suit. His placed efforts on good ground keep him competitive, and the combination of trainer and jockey figures at Navan adds to his claims from stall 16. The main dangers are Amerilis, who has strong recent form and a good run here already, Cuban Grey, who knows the track well and has a strong record at the trip, and the pair on 53 in Bold Optimist and Gotta Catch'em All, both of whom have placed form at Navan and could improve for the drop in distance or first-time headgear.
KTB Selection Bad Boy Rizz
This is the narrative read of the 4:38 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won over course and distance?
Gotta Catch'em All has won over C&D.
How many wins has Cuban Grey recorded at this trip?
Cuban Grey has won seven times at 5f in the past.
Which runners are making their first appearance at Navan?
Prairie Girl, Dandyville and Beach Barbie have no course form on record.
Who is trying first-time headgear?
Bold Optimist, Shadow Of The Moon and Cashel Blue are all wearing headgear for the first time.
Which horse has the strongest trainer strike rate at Navan?
Bold Optimist’s trainer has a 14% strike rate at Navan from 14 runs.
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