4:40 Nottingham
A small but competitive Class 5 handicap over 1m2f50y at Nottingham on good to firm ground brings together four runners, three of whom hold very similar KTB Fit Scores in the mid-50s. The race features a mix of a seasoned 7-year-old and three progressive or unexposed 3-year-olds, with the KTB numbers suggesting a tight contest where course knowledge, trip suitability and the uncontested pace shape could prove decisive. Overall the figures point to a race that may hinge on whether the lone leader can dictate matters or if the held-up types can close effectively.
How the race shapes up
With a lone-leader pace shape of medium confidence, the race is set up for one horse to get an uncontested lead that could prove hard for closers to overcome. Aussie Pearl is the only confirmed front-runner and should be allowed to bowl along in front, while the other three principals — Dawn Of Liberation, Sedeirah and Del Corso — are all usually held up and produce their efforts late. The key question is whether the three closers can generate enough momentum from off the pace to reel in a clear leader on a track where such leads are often difficult to peg back.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Dawn Of Liberation KTB Selection56/100Modest performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 2Sedeirah55/100Sedeirah has shown fair placed form in three starts, finishing third over a mile here last time.
- 3Del Corso54/100Modest performer who has shown steady progress and looks well suited by this trip having won both starts at 1m2f.
- 4Aussie Pearl32/100Modest performer who has shown consistent but limited ability in four starts, finishing no better than third.
The contenders
Dawn Of Liberation KTB Fit 56/100
Dawn Of Liberation is a modest performer who has won over this trip and at this track. His recent form is ordinary yet he ran a fair third last time and his course record reads a solid 1-3. Trainer Ruth Carr has a modest 7% strike-rate here from a big sample of 179 runs while apprentice Warren Fentiman is 0-11 at Nottingham. The 7-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late, a run-style that will see him biding his time behind the expected clear leader. He has one win from 12 starts on good to firm with two placed efforts and his Nottingham record of 1-3 gives him solid course knowledge in a race where that could be valuable.
Sedeirah KTB Fit 55/100
Sedeirah has shown fair placed form in three starts, finishing third over a mile here last time. She steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question of her, while the Class 5 company looks suitable for this modest performer. Trainer Edward Bethell has a solid 23% strike rate from 52 runs at Nottingham and is joined by Callum Rodriguez. The 3-year-old is usually held up and produces her effort late, meaning she will be among those trying to close on the expected uncontested leader. She has had two runs on good to firm without winning or placing and ran once here for a third-place finish without placing in that context.
Del Corso KTB Fit 54/100
Del Corso is a modest performer who has shown steady progress and looks well suited by this trip having won both starts at 1m2f. He has already won over course and distance on good to firm, which matches today's conditions, and his recent form includes a solid second last time out. The yard has a good record here with a 16% strike rate from 152 runs at Nottingham and Kieran Shoemark takes the ride. Usually held up with high confidence in that assessment, he will be another trying to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time up front. The draw in stall 2 should help and he has one win and one placing from three starts on good to firm.
The rest of the field
Aussie PearlKTB Fit 32/100
Aussie Pearl is a modest performer who has shown consistent but limited ability in four starts, finishing no better than third. She drops back in trip today having been well held over further last time, while first-time headgear is now applied. Trainer Charlie Johnston has a modest 4% strike rate from 49 runs at Nottingham and is joined by Sean D Bowen. The 3-year-old is the sole front-runner and should get an uncontested lead in a race where that shape can be hard for closers to overcome, though she has no course form on record and just one run on good to firm without placing.
KTB verdict
The KTB Selection is Dawn Of Liberation. He is a modest performer with previous winning form over this trip and at Nottingham, where his 1-3 course record stands up well, and he ran a fair third last time. His ability to produce a late effort from a hold-up position may be tested by the uncontested lead likely to be set by Aussie Pearl, but the selection has the best blend of course knowledge and proven stamina for the distance among the principals. Del Corso is the obvious danger having already won over course and distance on good to firm and showing steady progress, while Sedeirah brings fair placed form and a suitable drop in class though the trip remains a question mark.
KTB Selection Dawn Of Liberation
This is the narrative read of the 4:40 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to get an uncontested lead?
Aussie Pearl is the only confirmed front-runner in a lone-leader pace shape of medium confidence and should be allowed to bowl along in front.
How many of the four runners are usually held up?
Three of the four runners — Dawn Of Liberation, Sedeirah and Del Corso — are usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which horse has already won over the course and distance on good to firm?
Del Corso has won over course and distance on good to firm, matching today's conditions.
What is the course record of the KTB Selection at Nottingham?
Dawn Of Liberation has a course record of 1-3 at Nottingham.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Nottingham among those represented?
Edward Bethell has a 23% strike rate at Nottingham from 52 runs.
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