4:15 Beverley
This Class 5 handicap at Beverley over 1m1f207y on good to firm ground features a field of eight where the KTB numbers point to a competitive but modest contest overall. The top four in the KTB Fit rankings are closely matched between 65 and 50, with the selection heading the list on the back of a strong recent record. Several runners are dropping or stepping up in class while the application of first-time headgear to four of the field adds an element of uncertainty.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, indicating one clear front-runner with little to pressure it and an uncontested lead that can prove hard for closers to peg back. Kitsune Power is the only front-runner in the field and should be allowed an easy time on the lead from draw 2. The remainder of the runners, including the selection Ciao Capo, are all held-up types who will be looking to produce their efforts late, meaning the key question is whether any of them can close the gap on an unchallenged leader on this stiff track.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Ciao Capo KTB Selection65/100Modest performer who has won three of his last five starts including a C&D success on his only previous visit here.
- 2Bearwith63/100Modest performer who has won once from eight starts at Beverley and holds a solid 3-11 record on good to firm.
- 3No Knee Never62/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning for some time.
- 4Dr Rio50/100Modest 10-year-old who has won six times at Beverley from 27 runs and also has a solid record at today's trip.
- 5Kitsune Power48/100Kitsune Power is a limited performer who has run 48 times in the last year and mixes his form.
- 6Sunny Orange47/100Sunny Orange is a limited performer who has been consistent in recent months without winning, placing in three of his last six starts.
- 7Princess Niyla47/100Princess Niyla is a modest performer with a solid record at Beverley, where she has won twice from eight runs.
- 8Langton Wold37/100Limited performer who has shown little spark in two runs this year and looks up against it from stall 8.
The contenders
Ciao Capo KTB Fit 65/100
Ciao Capo is a modest performer who has won three of his last five starts, including a course and distance success on his only previous visit to Beverley. He drops back in trip from 1m2½f having looked stretched at that distance last time out, which should suit. The Richard and Peter Fahey yard posts a 15% strike rate at Beverley with an A/E of 1.15 from 20 runs, while Oisin Orr operates at 19% with an A/E of 1.03 from 123 rides at the track. He is 2 from 2 on good to firm ground and the colt is held up, usually producing his effort late. Dropping in class from a recent win adds to his appeal as the KTB Selection.
Bearwith KTB Fit 63/100
Bearwith is a modest performer who has won once from eight starts at Beverley and holds a solid record of 3 wins from 11 starts on good to firm. He has also won at today's trip and the Harriet Bethell yard's 17% strike rate at the track from 29 runs adds some encouragement. Recent form has been patchy though and he arrives off the back of a modest effort last time out. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 7, the 8-year-old is stepping up in class. Tom Kiely-Marshall takes the ride with an 11% strike rate at Beverley.
No Knee Never KTB Fit 62/100
No Knee Never is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning for some time. He has run well enough at this trip in the past and the James Owen yard’s 35% strike rate at Beverley with an A/E of 1.5 from 20 runs offers some encouragement, though he has shown little on his only previous visit here when finishing sixth. First-time headgear is now tried on ground that looks no better than fair for him, as he is 0 from 2 on good to firm. Usually held up with medium confidence in that assessment, Clifford Lee takes the mount with a 21% strike rate at the track.
Dr Rio KTB Fit 50/100
Dr Rio is a modest 10-year-old who has won six times at Beverley from 27 runs and also has a solid record at today's trip. He has placed on good to firm ground and his recent form of 543875 shows he can still be competitive at this level. Declan Carroll has a 7% strike rate here from 341 runs while jockey Zak Wheatley is operating at 9% from 101 rides at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 6, he is stepping up in class. The veteran retains each-way claims on his best days at this venue.
The rest of the field
Kitsune PowerKTB Fit 48/100
Kitsune Power is a limited performer who has run 48 times in the last year and mixes his form. He has won twice from five starts at Beverley and twice at today's trip, while he has also won three times on good to firm. The first-time headgear is an unknown on a horse whose recent form has been patchy and he is the only front-runner, likely to be allowed an easy lead.
Sunny OrangeKTB Fit 47/100
Sunny Orange is a limited performer who has been consistent in recent months without winning, placing in three of his last six starts. He has a solid record here at Beverley with four wins from 20 runs and has also placed every time he has tried today's trip. First-time headgear is now fitted on ground he handles as he steps up in class, though the yard's modest 6% strike rate with this jockey is a concern.
Princess NiylaKTB Fit 47/100
Princess Niyla is a modest performer with a solid record at Beverley, where she has won twice from eight runs. She steps up in trip today having already won twice at this distance, though her recent form of 535653 shows she is not in her best form at present. First-time headgear is now tried while both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates at the track as she steps up in class.
Langton WoldKTB Fit 37/100
Langton Wold is a limited performer who has shown little spark in two runs this year and looks up against it from stall 8. He has placed once in two visits to Beverley and is proven at this trip, yet his overall record at the distance is modest and the first-time headgear is a sign that something needs to change. Brian Ellison has a 9% strike rate here while Cam Hardie sits on 4% as he steps up in class.
KTB verdict
Ciao Capo looks to hold the best chance in a race where the pace is likely to be dominated by one uncontested leader. His three wins from five starts, including a course and distance victory here, combined with dropping back to a more suitable trip after looking stretched last time, make him the KTB Selection. The yard and jockey both hold solid records at Beverley and he is 2 from 2 on good to firm. Bearwith and No Knee Never are the most obvious dangers if they can close effectively from the rear, while Dr Rio's course record means he cannot be entirely dismissed in a race that could be decided by how well the held-up brigade can bridge the gap to the leader.
KTB Selection Ciao Capo
This is the narrative read of the 4:15 Beverley. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Beverley racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most suited by the expected uncontested lead?
Kitsune Power is the only front-runner and should be allowed an easy time on the lead.
How many of the field are wearing first-time headgear?
Four runners are fitted with first-time headgear: No Knee Never, Kitsune Power, Sunny Orange and Princess Niyla, plus Langton Wold.
What is the trainer strike rate at Beverley for the yard of the KTB Selection?
Richard and Peter Fahey have a 15% strike rate at Beverley with an A/E of 1.15 from 20 runs.
Which horse has the strongest course record at Beverley?
Dr Rio has won six times at Beverley from 27 runs.
How does the selection's recent form compare to the rest of the field?
Ciao Capo has won three of his last five starts with form figures 1-4116, the strongest winning record among the principals.
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