3:45 Beverley
This Class 4 handicap over 7f75y at Beverley on good to firm ground brings together an even field of eleven where the KTB Fit Scores sit in a narrow band from 60 down to 43. The top five principals are separated by just six points on the figures, underlining how competitive the race looks on paper. Obelix heads the KTB Fit ratings as the selection while several others arrive in reasonable form and with first-time headgear to add an extra layer of interest.
How the race shapes up
With two or more confirmed front-runners in the line-up the pace shape is expected to be strong, and the confidence in that assessment is high. Style Of Life, Bell Shot, Beyond The Bar and Highland Olly all tend to race prominently or make the running, which sets up the likelihood of an honest gallop that could leave the leaders vulnerable in the closing stages. That in turn places the emphasis on hold-up performers who can pick up the pieces late, posing the key question of whether any of the prominent runners can dictate matters and still last home.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Obelix KTB Selection60/100Fair sort who has won at this trip but has been below form on his last two starts.
- 2Bell Shot57/100Bell Shot is a fair handicapper with a solid record here, having won three of his four starts at Beverley.
- 3Alpha Capture57/100Alpha Capture is a fair handicapper who has been in and out of form this year with a recent sequence of 621202.
- 4Glenfinnan55/100Glenfinnan is a fair handicapper who has won once from two starts at Beverley and also has three wins from 19 runs at today's trip.
- 5Style Of Life54/100Fair performer who has won once over today's trip from six attempts.
- 6Tattie Bogle54/100Modest performer who has run well here in the past, winning once from three starts at Beverley.
- 7Beyond The Bar50/100Fair performer who has shown a mixed bag lately with a win at this trip sandwiched between lesser efforts.
- 8Highland Olly49/100Highland Olly is a fair performer who has won here once from three runs and also has three wins from 18 starts at this trip.
- 9Intervention48/100Modest performer with a recent string of poor efforts that offers little encouragement.
- 10Homestrait48/100Modest performer who has been consistent this year without winning often.
- 11Flying Fletcher43/100Modest performer with a consistent but largely unplaced record this year.
The contenders
Obelix KTB Fit 60/100
Obelix is a fair sort who has won at this trip but has been below form on his last two starts. First run at Beverley today removes any course knowledge while his record on good to firm is modest with just one win from twelve attempts. The yard and rider both bring solid records to the table, the trainer in particular showing a 15% strike rate at Beverley from 255 runs and an A/E of 1.19. Jason Hart's 11% strike rate from 398 rides here is respectable if a touch weaker. Dropping in class is a positive and the horse's held-up style, in which he usually produces his effort late, looks ideally suited to the strong pace that is anticipated. Overall the KTB Fit score of 60 marks him out as the one to beat.
Bell Shot KTB Fit 57/100
Bell Shot is a fair handicapper with a solid record here, having won three of his four starts at Beverley. He steps up from 6f to a trip he has won over before, though his recent form has been patchy and he now tries headgear for the first time. The trainer has a respectable 12% strike rate at the track while the jockey remains winless from eight rides here. With a 2-from-11 record on good to firm and an A/E of 1.04 for the yard at the course, the booking of Mason Paetel (5) adds a 16% trainer-jockey combination that has returned a healthy level-stakes profit. His front-running tendencies mean he will be towards the sharp end early, which could prove either a help or a hindrance depending on how the pace unfolds.
Alpha Capture KTB Fit 57/100
Alpha Capture is a fair handicapper who has been in and out of form this year with a recent sequence of 621202. He has won on good to firm and at today's trip though his record at this distance is only one win from eleven starts. The yard has a solid 10% strike rate at Beverley from a big sample while first-time headgear is now tried on a horse making his debut here. Conor Whiteley (5) takes the ride on a 57 KTB Fit rating that puts him right in the mix with the principals. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be well placed to capitalise if the strong pace takes its toll on those up front. The combination of headgear and a track debut adds an element of the unknown to an already competitive profile.
Glenfinnan KTB Fit 55/100
Glenfinnan is a fair handicapper who has won once from two starts at Beverley and also has three wins from 19 runs at today's trip. He has shown mixed form this year with a win and a second from his last six runs while wearing no headgear. The trainer has an 11% strike rate here from 550 runs and the jockey records 17% from 556 rides, though the horse's record on good to firm ground is modest with just one win from 13 starts. First-time headgear is now applied as he drops in class from a mid-division run style that should see him settle comfortably off the expected strong pace. Daniel Tudhope's strong course record gives the combination genuine each-way appeal on a 55 KTB Fit score.
Style Of Life KTB Fit 54/100
Style Of Life is a fair performer who has won once over today's trip from six attempts. Only one run on good to firm ground and that produced no win or place, while this is the first time wearing headgear. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Beverley, the yard showing 17% from a small but respectable 29 runs and an A/E of 1.03. Ethan Tindall (5) adds an 11% strike rate from 18 rides at the track. Usually to the fore or making the running, this front-running style will see him prominent in a race where the pace is set to be strong. The 54 KTB Fit rating keeps him in the conversation among the principals even if the ground and headgear questions remain to be answered.
The rest of the field
Tattie BogleKTB Fit 54/100
Tattie Bogle is a modest performer who has run well here in the past, winning once from three starts at Beverley. Consistent rather than progressive lately with a string of placed efforts including two seconds from his last six runs, though he has yet to win on good to firm ground from nine attempts. First-time headgear is now tried while he steps back up to a trip he has won over before; his held-up style fits the likely shape.
Beyond The BarKTB Fit 50/100
Beyond The Bar is a fair performer who has shown a mixed bag lately with a win at this trip sandwiched between lesser efforts. Drops back from a mile to a distance he has already won at while handling good to firm ground. Trainer and jockey both sit on 10% strike rates at Beverley from large samples; his front-running style will put him right into the strong pace.
Highland OllyKTB Fit 49/100
Highland Olly is a fair performer who has won here once from three runs and also has three wins from 18 starts at this trip. He has shown a mixed bag lately with form of 104217 and holds a 1-from-8 record on good to firm ground. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Beverley is offset by the jockey's 10% record at the track; another who will be prominent early.
InterventionKTB Fit 48/100
Intervention is a modest performer with a recent string of poor efforts that offers little encouragement. Has won on good to firm and at today's trip but those successes are now in the past and the first-time headgear is an unknown. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Beverley; his hold-up style could be an asset if the leaders go hard.
HomestraitKTB Fit 48/100
Homestrait is a modest performer who has been consistent this year without winning often. Placed both starts at Beverley and has a win and three places from five runs on good to firm, so the ground and track suit. Drops back to 7f today where he is three from 11, though first-time headgear adds an unknown; usually held up.
Flying FletcherKTB Fit 43/100
Flying Fletcher is a modest performer with a consistent but largely unplaced record this year. Drops back from 1m2f to a trip where he has placed twice without winning, though he is 0-5 on good to firm ground. Trainer has a solid 15% strike rate at Beverley while the jockey's 4% record from a large sample is more modest; another hold-up type.
KTB verdict
Obelix is the KTB Selection and arrives with the highest Fit Score in a race where the principals are closely matched. His held-up style is perfectly suited to the strong pace that should unfold, and the yard's healthy record at Beverley offers further encouragement even on a course debut. The drop in class is another plus for a horse that has won at this trip before. Main dangers are likely to come from Bell Shot, who knows the track well and will be on the pace, and Alpha Capture, whose late kick and first-time headgear could prove effective if the leaders fold. Glenfinnan and Style Of Life add further depth to what looks a typically competitive Beverley handicap.
KTB Selection Obelix
This is the narrative read of the 3:45 Beverley. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Beverley racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited to a strong pace according to the run styles?
Obelix, who is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence in that assessment.
How many front-runners or prominent runners are likely to ensure a strong pace?
At least four: Style Of Life, Bell Shot, Beyond The Bar and Highland Olly all tend to make the running or race on the pace.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Beverley among those represented?
Harriet Bethell with a 17% strike rate from 29 runs and an A/E of 1.03.
Which jockey has the best strike rate at Beverley in this field?
Daniel Tudhope with a 17% strike rate from 556 rides and an A/E of 0.99.
Who has the most placed form on good to firm ground without a win?
Tattie Bogle, who is placed four times from nine runs on good to firm without winning.
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