4:22 Thirsk
A small but competitive Class 5 handicap over 1m4f at Thirsk on good ground features four runners, with the KTB Fit Scores tightly bunched at the top. Ludo's Landing heads the ratings on 57, just ahead of Northern Brave and La Peregrina who both sit on 53, while That Darn Cantor trails on 43. The race lacks strong pace clues, making the shape harder to read with confidence, and the class drop for several runners adds another layer of interest on a track where certain trainers and jockeys hold notable records.
How the race shapes up
With only limited run-style evidence available the pace shape is unclear and confidence in any forecast is low. Both Ludo's Landing and That Darn Cantor are noted as prominent runners though the data on their usual positioning is restricted. The key question is whether the race develops into a steady gallop that allows the more experienced handicappers to show their best, or if the younger trio can capitalise on the drop in class without a strong pace to contend with.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Ludo's Landing KTB Selection57/100Modest performer who has won once from two starts at Thirsk and also has two wins from eight runs on good ground.
- 2Northern Brave53/100Northern Brave is a fair 3-year-old with placed form on his sole previous try at this trip.
- 3La Peregrina53/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency of late with two placed efforts from her last three starts.
- 4That Darn Cantor43/100Modest performer who has shown little since a promising debut seventh at this track last year.
The contenders
Ludo's Landing KTB Fit 57/100
Ludo's Landing is a modest performer who has won once from two starts at Thirsk and also has two wins from eight runs on good ground. He drops back in trip today after his latest run over 1m6f having previously won twice from 12 starts at this distance. Silvestre de Sousa and the yard both have solid records at the track, with the trainer showing a 12% strike rate and the jockey a 16% strike rate from their respective samples. The six-year-old is dropping in class here and his recent form of 104355 suggests he remains competitive at this level. Usually racing prominently, his draw in stall one could prove advantageous if the pace is not overly strong. Overall he shapes as the one to beat on these terms.
Northern Brave KTB Fit 53/100
Northern Brave is a fair 3-year-old with placed form on his sole previous try at this trip. He has been below that level in two starts this season and steps up in distance again today which asks a fresh question. Trainer Michael Dods and jockey Connor Beasley both operate at a 10% strike rate at Thirsk from large samples. The yard's record with the jockey stands at 11% from over 2,000 rides, underlining their consistency even if the A/E is slightly below parity. His form figures of 31-074 show ability but also recent inconsistency. With no course form on record and three runs on good ground without a win or place, he will need to improve to trouble the selection.
La Peregrina KTB Fit 53/100
La Peregrina is a modest performer who has shown some consistency of late with two placed efforts from her last three starts. She drops back in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance on her one previous attempt. Trainer Ed Walker and jockey George Downing both have strong records at Thirsk, the yard posting 23% from 39 runs and the rider 24% from a small but impressive 17 rides. Her recent form of -55022 highlights that she is competitive at this level on her best days. With one placing from two runs on good ground she should handle the conditions, though she remains without a win. From draw two she is likely to be involved if the race falls her way.
The rest of the field
That Darn CantorKTB Fit 43/100
That Darn Cantor is a modest performer who has shown little since a promising debut seventh at this track last year. He has been well held in three starts this season and now tries a new headgear combination for the first time. The trip looks a fair question after one unplaced run at it, and with no win or place from three runs on good ground he faces a stiff task from the widest draw.
KTB verdict
Ludo's Landing is the KTB Selection and looks to hold the strongest claims in a race short on pace clues. A course winner who has scored twice at this trip and possesses a solid record on good ground, he drops in class with the booking of Silvestre de Sousa and benefits from a handy draw. His prominent style should allow him to see how the race develops early. Northern Brave and La Peregrina are the main dangers, both dropping in class with placed form at the trip, though the former has been below par this year and the latter is still seeking her first win. That Darn Cantor brings up the rear on ratings and has plenty to prove in first-time headgear.
KTB Selection Ludo's Landing
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:02 UTC, 1 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Ludo's Landing | 5/1 | 7Bet |
| Northern Brave | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| La Peregrina | 8/13 | Bet365 |
| That Darn Cantor | 7/1 | LiveScore Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 4:22 Thirsk. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Thirsk racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-winning form at Thirsk?
Ludo's Landing has won once from two starts at the track.
Why is the pace shape difficult to predict?
There is not enough run-style evidence across the field to read the pace with confidence.
Which trainer and jockey combination holds the strongest record at Thirsk?
Ed Walker and George Downing on La Peregrina, with the trainer at 23% and the jockey at 24% strike rate.
How many wins has Ludo's Landing recorded at this distance?
He has won twice from 12 starts at this distance.
What is the class situation for the three highest-rated runners?
Ludo's Landing, Northern Brave and La Peregrina are all dropping in class.
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