4:55 Thirsk
This Class 6 handicap over 6f at Thirsk on good ground brings together a field of nine modest performers where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched between 56 and 41. The top four in the KTB ranking are separated by just six points, underlining how little separates the principals on paper. With the pace shape read as tentative on medium confidence and only thin evidence of an obvious front-runner, the race looks likely to revolve around who can produce their best on the day from a competitive but unexciting bunch.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is tentative with medium confidence, suggesting there is a possible front-runner but on limited evidence. Bay Breeze is the only horse noted as tending to make the running or race prominently, which could see him take up the lead in a race that may otherwise lack sustained early speed. Several runners including Fanjove, Maldevious and Khabib are typically held up and produce their effort late, so the key question is whether the race will develop into a sprint for the line or if the prominent runners can dictate matters from the front.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Great KTB Selection56/100Modest performer who has shown bits of ability on this track and at this trip.
- 2Fanjove54/100Modest performer who has been below form since a promising second on debut.
- 3Northcliff51/100Modest performer who has been out of form for most of this year and finished only sixth when he tried this track once before.
- 4Kings Merchant50/100Modest performer with a solid record at this track, including two wins from six runs.
- 5Lord Abama47/100Lord Abama is a limited handicapper who has won three times at this track from ten runs and steps back up to a trip he has won over five times from 42 starts.
- 6Maldevious47/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning, finishing in the first four on four of his last six starts.
- 7Mecca's Symphony46/100Mecca's Symphony is a modest performer who has shown little spark this year apart from a placed effort at this track.
- 8Bay Breeze42/100Modest performer who has won once over this trip and at this track from five runs.
- 9Khabib41/100Modest performer who has been placed twice from 13 runs at Thirsk without winning and steps up to 6f for the first time today having last run over 5f.
The contenders
Great KTB Fit 56/100
Great is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability on this track and at this trip. He has a win at 6f on his record and was competitive when placed on good ground, though he has not won for some time and was only sixth when he ran here before. The trainer has an 18% strike rate at Thirsk with an A/E of 1.45 from 28 runs, which offers some encouragement even if the jockey is 0% from four rides at the track with an A/E of 0. Recent form of 378715 includes a win and he is drawn in stall 3. Overall the KTB Fit of 56 marks him out as the top-rated in the field.
Fanjove KTB Fit 54/100
Fanjove is a modest performer who has been below form since a promising second on debut. Dropping back to 6f is a fresh question having failed to trouble the judge in four previous runs at the trip, while he has no experience of good ground. First-time headgear is now reached for in a bid to spark improvement. The trainer has a modest 7% strike rate at Thirsk from 70 runs with an A/E of 0.42, though the 3lb claimer has a strong 25% strike rate here from 12 rides with an A/E of 2.22. Recent form reads 2-4696 and he is drawn in stall 1 with a KTB Fit of 54.
Northcliff KTB Fit 51/100
Northcliff is a modest performer who has been out of form for most of this year and finished only sixth when he tried this track once before. He drops back to a trip he has won over five times and has a respectable record on good ground with one win and two places from five starts. First-time headgear is now fitted, which suggests connections are running out of ideas. Silvestre De Sousa is a notable booking with a 16% strike rate at Thirsk from 249 rides and an A/E of 0.93. Recent form of 081460 reflects a previous win this year but little since, and the KTB Fit stands at 51.
Kings Merchant KTB Fit 50/100
Kings Merchant is a modest performer with a solid record at this track, including two wins from six runs. He has dropped back to his winning trip today and the first-time headgear could sharpen him up, though the yard and jockey both have modest strike rates here with the trainer on 6% from 126 runs at an A/E of 0.63 and the jockey on 3% from 304 rides at an A/E of 0.61. Recent form of 478214 includes a win and he is 1 from 11 on good ground with two places. The KTB Fit is 50 and he is drawn in stall 5.
The rest of the field
Lord AbamaKTB Fit 47/100
Lord Abama is a limited handicapper who has won three times at this track from ten runs and steps back up to a trip he has won over five times from 42 starts. He has been below form on his last four outings and is now tried in first-time headgear while dropping in class. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Thirsk from 947 runs and the jockey posts an 11% record from 89 rides.
MaldeviousKTB Fit 47/100
Maldevious is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning, finishing in the first four on four of his last six starts. He steps up to 6f for the first time today having placed at the trip in the past, while first-time headgear is a new variable that could sharpen him and he is dropping in class. The trainer has a solid 10% strike rate at Thirsk from 328 runs though the jockey is operating at a modest 5% here from 174 rides.
Mecca's SymphonyKTB Fit 46/100
Mecca's Symphony is a modest performer who has shown little spark this year apart from a placed effort at this track. Dropping back to 6f is a fresh question having failed to trouble the judge in two previous attempts at the trip, while three runs on good ground have produced no win or place. First-time headgear is now fitted and the yard's 10% strike rate at Thirsk from a large sample offers some baseline hope.
Bay BreezeKTB Fit 42/100
Bay Breeze is a modest performer who has won once over this trip and at this track from five runs. Recent form is ordinary and he has only won twice on good ground from 19 starts. First-time headgear is now tried while the yard and rider both have modest records at Thirsk. He tends to make the running or race on the pace.
KhabibKTB Fit 41/100
Khabib is a modest performer who has been placed twice from 13 runs at Thirsk without winning and steps up to 6f for the first time today having last run over 5f. He has shown bits of form on good ground with four placed efforts from 15 starts but recent efforts have been poor. First-time headgear is now tried while the yard has a modest 2% strike rate at the track and the jockey is 0-8 here.
KTB verdict
Great emerges as the KTB Selection at the head of the ratings with a Fit score of 56. He has shown bits of ability on this track and at this trip, possesses a 6f win on his record and has been competitive when placed on good ground. The solid trainer record at Thirsk adds further layers to his claims in a race where so many of his rivals arrive with questions to answer. The main dangers are likely to be Kings Merchant, who has a strong course record including two wins from six starts, and Northcliff, who drops back to a trip he has won over five times while benefitting from the booking of Silvestre De Sousa.
KTB Selection Great
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:02 UTC, 1 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Great | 3/1 | 7Bet |
| Fanjove | 8/1 | 7Bet |
| Northcliff | 9/2 | 7Bet |
| Kings Merchant | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Lord Abama | 8/1 | Bet Victor |
| Maldevious | 7/1 | 7Bet |
| Mecca's Symphony | 14/1 | Bet Victor |
| Bay Breeze | 9/1 | 7Bet |
| Khabib | 16/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 4:55 Thirsk. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Thirsk racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping in class and has won three times at Thirsk?
Lord Abama has won three times at this track from ten runs and is dropping in class.
Which runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Fanjove, Northcliff, Kings Merchant, Lord Abama, Maldevious, Mecca's Symphony, Bay Breeze and Khabib are all in first-time headgear.
Who has the strongest course record at Thirsk among the principals?
Kings Merchant has a solid record at this track including two wins from six runs.
Which horse is the only one noted as tending to make the running?
Bay Breeze tends to make the running or race on the pace.
What is the KTB Fit score of the selection and the lowest-rated runner?
Great is rated 56 while Khabib is rated 41.
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