4:25 Thirsk
The 4:25 at Thirsk is a Class 4 handicap over 1m4f8y on good to soft ground, featuring an 8-runner field of largely unexposed 3-year-olds mixed with a couple of older handicappers. The KTB Fit ratings point to a competitive heat led by High Storm on 61, with Wardlaw, Bay Of Myths and What's The Plan all closely matched in the 53-57 range, while the remainder sit lower. Several runners step up or drop in trip and a number remain unproven on the surface, making this a race where class, stamina and the ability to handle a genuinely-run contest will be key.
How the race shapes up
With a genuinely-run pace shape of high confidence, Mr Bollinger is likely to take them along from the front, pressed by prominent racers Wardlaw and Bay Of Myths. Several held-up types including High Storm, What's The Plan, Spirit Of Acklam and Kisiyra will look to produce their efforts from off the pace in what should be a fair test. The key question is whether the prominent runners can sustain the gallop or if the closers will be able to pick them up late once the race begins in earnest.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1High Storm KTB Selection61/100
High Storm is a fair 3-year-old with solid recent form including a win and two placings from his last four starts. He has already shown he handles good to soft ground and has a strong jockey on board with a 34% strike rate at Thirsk from 29 rides. The trip looks an open question after one unplaced run at this distance and the yard's modest 12% record here from a big sample adds some caution. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and is dropping in class here. Pierre-Louis Jamin takes the ride for the K R Burke yard which has an overall 17% strike rate with this jockey and positive A/E of 1.05.
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2Wardlaw57/100
Wardlaw is a fair 3-year-old with solid recent form that includes a win and two seconds from his last four starts. He has already won at this trip from just two attempts and the yard's 23% strike rate at Thirsk adds some encouragement. The colt remains unproven on good to soft ground and this is his first run here. Usually racing prominently, he should be on or close to the early pace in a genuinely-run race. Sir Mark Prescott sends him out stepping up in class with Kevin Stott in the saddle.
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3Bay Of Myths54/100
Bay Of Myths showed fair ability when winning on debut before finishing third on his second start. He steps up in trip today to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question of him. Both trainer and jockey have too few runs at Thirsk to draw any conclusions from. Usually prominent, he will be handy in what is expected to be a strong gallop. The Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole runner drops in class with Ashley Lewis claiming 3lb.
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4What's The Plan53/100
What's The Plan is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning, finishing in the first four on four of his last five starts. Steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question while he remains unproven on good to soft ground. James Fanshawe has a solid 22% strike rate at Thirsk from 106 runs though Harry Davies is operating at a more modest 11% from 27 rides here. Usually held up, he produces his effort late with high confidence in that run-style. The pair combine with an 18% strike rate and positive A/E of 1.61.
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5Spirit Of Acklam49/100
Spirit Of Acklam is a fair performer who has shown useful form this year with wins at Newcastle and Pontefract. He steps up in trip today having failed to land a blow in two previous tries at this distance and the yard and jockey both hold modest records at Thirsk. He handles good to soft ground.
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6Knightsail42/100
Knightsail is a fair 3-year-old who has shown steady placed form without progressing in four starts. The step up from 1m2f to 1m4f today asks a fresh question of him. Trainer David Menuisier has a 0% strike rate from five runs at Thirsk while Jason Hart operates at a 9% strike rate from 466 rides here.
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7Kisiyra40/100
Kisiyra is a modest performer who has shown only limited spark in recent starts and looks up against it from stall 1. Trainer's modest 3% strike rate at Thirsk offers little encouragement while the 5yo remains unproven on good to soft ground. Drops back in trip today having failed to make the frame in two previous attempts at this distance.
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8Mr Bollinger38/100
Mr Bollinger is a modest performer who has shown some ability on his last two starts, winning a 1m3f handicap at Redcar before finishing second at Ayr. He now steps up in trip for the first time which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer Michael Bell has an 11% strike rate at Thirsk from 145 runs while jockey James Sullivan is operating at 6% from 609 rides here.
KTB verdict
High Storm stands out as the KTB Selection. A fair 3-year-old with solid recent form, a win on good to soft and the benefit of a jockey with a fine 34% strike rate at the track, he can make the drop in class count despite the trip remaining something of an unknown. The selection will be held up and delivered late in what should be a genuinely-run race. Wardlaw, with his proven stamina at the trip, and the progressive Bay Of Myths are the most obvious dangers, while What's The Plan's consistency also makes him a player if he handles the ground and new distance.
KTB Selection High Storm
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 5 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| High Storm | 7/2 | 7Bet |
| Wardlaw | 10/3 | BetMGM |
| Bay Of Myths | 11/2 | 7Bet |
| What's The Plan | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Spirit Of Acklam | 5/1 | Bet Victor |
| Knightsail | 8/1 | Bet365 |
| Kisiyra | 50/1 | 7Bet |
| Mr Bollinger | 12/1 | BetMGM |
This is the narrative read of the 4:25 Thirsk. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Thirsk racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Thirsk results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has proven form at the 1m4f trip?
Wardlaw has already won at this trip from just two attempts.
Which jockey has the strongest record at Thirsk in this field?
Pierre-Louis Jamin has a 34% strike rate at Thirsk from 29 rides.
How many horses in the race are proven on good to soft ground?
Two horses have form on good to soft: High Storm with 1 win from 3, and Spirit Of Acklam with 1 win from 4.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Thirsk among those with meaningful sample sizes?
Sir Mark Prescott has a 23% strike rate at Thirsk from 126 runs.
Who is likely to make the running?
Mr Bollinger tends to make the running or race on the pace in a genuinely-run contest.
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