4:30 Beverley
This Class 5 handicap over the minimum trip at Beverley brings together nine modest performers on good to firm ground. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched, with no standout performer on the numbers, and the pace shape is unclear given the limited run-style evidence across the field. Recent form is mixed throughout, with several runners stepping up in class and others returning to a track where they have previously shown their best.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape rated as unclear and low confidence in the run-style data, it is difficult to predict how the race will unfold. Crafty Spirit has shown a tendency to race prominently and could attempt to make the running from draw one, while Azuinthejungle is usually prominent. The key question is whether any horse can seize an uncontested lead or whether the field will bunch early, leaving the race to be decided in the final furlong on a track that often favours those with a turn of foot.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Le Beau Garcon KTB Selection61/100Le Beau Garcon is a modest performer who has won once from three runs at Beverley and holds a solid record on good to firm ground with four wins from eleven sta…
- 2Azuinthejungle54/100Modest performer who has won once from four starts at Beverley and holds a solid record on good to firm, including two wins from five runs.
- 3Empress Olivia53/100Modest performer with a mixed recent record of 210406 that includes a win and a second but also three unplaced efforts from her last four starts.
- 4Jojo Rabbit51/100Modest performer who has run well here in the past, winning once from seven starts at Beverley.
- 5Golden Havana50/100Modest performer who has been consistent without winning lately, finishing in the first three in three of his last four starts.
- 6Speeding Bullet46/100Modest performer who has been below form on his last three starts and finished well beaten on his only previous visit to Beverley.
- 7Opal Storm46/100Opal Storm is a limited performer who has run 39 times in the last year and shown her best at this track with two wins from 11 starts.
- 8Crafty Spirit44/100Crafty Spirit is a limited horse who has shown better form of late with two wins from his last three starts.
- 9Without Flaw42/100Without Flaw is a limited performer who has shown ordinary form this year and ran no better than midfield on her last two starts.
The contenders
Le Beau Garcon KTB Fit 61/100
Le Beau Garcon is a modest performer who has won once from three runs at Beverley and holds a solid record on good to firm ground with four wins from eleven starts. He has also won at this trip though his recent form of 20-450 suggests he is now struggling to match that level. The Easterby yard posts a 14% strike rate here from a large sample while Joanna Mason rides. Drawn in three, he should be able to secure a decent early position in a race where the pace is hard to read with confidence. His course win adds to the case and the combination of trainer and jockey statistics at Beverley offers some encouragement on ground that suits.
Azuinthejungle KTB Fit 54/100
Azuinthejungle is a modest performer who has won once from four starts at Beverley and holds a solid record on good to firm, including two wins from five runs. He drops back to 5f today after a last run over 6f, a trip at which he has won twice from 18 attempts. Trainer Nigel Tinkler operates at a 7% strike rate from 948 runs here while jockey Alex Jary has limited experience at the track. Usually racing prominently, his recent form of 047321 includes a win and places, though this represents a step up in class. The prominent run-style could be an asset if the pace shape remains unclear.
Empress Olivia KTB Fit 53/100
Empress Olivia is a modest performer with a mixed recent record of 210406 that includes a win and a second but also three unplaced efforts from her last four starts. She has placed once in five runs at this trip though is 0-2 on good to firm ground and makes her first visit to Beverley. Trainer Mark Walford has a solid 13% strike rate here from 146 runs while jockey Jack Garritty is 0-6 at the track. Drawn widest in nine, she will need to overcome both the lack of course experience and her modest record on this type of ground. The yard's record at Beverley provides some hope but overall she looks vulnerable.
Jojo Rabbit KTB Fit 51/100
Jojo Rabbit is a modest performer who has run well here in the past, winning once from seven starts at Beverley. Recent form of 672286 shows consistency without much spark, and the yard's modest 9% strike rate at the track adds no real encouragement. Suited by good to firm ground and the trip, with six wins from 45 attempts at five furlongs. Drawn in four alongside the selection, he has the experience of the course but has lacked the spark needed to win of late. Ruth Carr and James Sullivan combine with a modest record at Beverley that limits the appeal.
The rest of the field
Golden HavanaKTB Fit 50/100
Golden Havana is a modest performer who has been consistent without winning lately, finishing in the first three in three of his last four starts. He has won over this trip and has placed on good to firm, though he is now making his first visit to Beverley. First-time headgear is tried as the yard holds an 11% strike rate here from a large sample.
Speeding BulletKTB Fit 46/100
Speeding Bullet is a modest performer who has been below form on his last three starts and finished well beaten on his only previous visit to Beverley. He has shown placed form at this trip but holds no wins on good to firm ground from two attempts. Trainer strikes at 9% here from a large sample.
Opal StormKTB Fit 46/100
Opal Storm is a limited performer who has run 39 times in the last year and shown her best at this track with two wins from 11 starts. She has won four times on good to firm ground from 14 runs and also has five wins from 30 starts at this trip, though her recent form of 915081 is patchy. First-time headgear is now applied while the trainer's modest 5% strike rate from 319 runs at Beverley offers little encouragement.
Crafty SpiritKTB Fit 44/100
Crafty Spirit is a limited horse who has shown better form of late with two wins from his last three starts. He has course experience having won here from four runs and has also won twice on good to firm ground from seven attempts. First-time headgear is now fitted on a horse that has won at this trip.
Without FlawKTB Fit 42/100
Without Flaw is a limited performer who has shown ordinary form this year and ran no better than midfield on her last two starts. She has won twice at Beverley from six visits and also has two wins at this trip, though her record on good to firm is modest with just one success from twelve attempts. The trainer holds a 9% strike rate here from 103 runs while Cam Hardie has a 12% record from 142 rides at the track.
KTB verdict
Le Beau Garcon is the KTB Selection. He remains a modest performer but brings a course win at Beverley from three starts, a strong record on good to firm ground, and the benefit of the Easterby yard's 14% strike rate at the track. His recent form is modest yet he has the experience and the draw to be competitive in a race where the pace is difficult to read with confidence. The main dangers are Azuinthejungle, who brings course form and a prominent run-style, and Crafty Spirit, who has shown improved form of late and could make the running.
KTB Selection Le Beau Garcon
This is the narrative read of the 4:30 Beverley. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Beverley racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best course record at Beverley?
Le Beau Garcon has won once from three starts at Beverley while Opal Storm has two wins from eleven runs here.
How many runners are stepping up in class?
Five runners are stepping up in class: Azuinthejungle, Golden Havana, Opal Storm, Crafty Spirit and Without Flaw.
Which horses are wearing headgear for the first time?
Golden Havana, Opal Storm and Crafty Spirit are all fitted with first-time headgear.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Beverley?
Mark Walford has a 13% strike rate at Beverley from 146 runs while Michael & David Easterby are on 14% from 225 runs.
Which horse has the most wins on good to firm ground?
Opal Storm has four wins from fourteen starts on good to firm while Le Beau Garcon has four wins from eleven.
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