5:40 Doncaster
This Class 5 amateur jockeys' handicap over 5f143y at Doncaster on good to firm ground brings together an 11-runner field of largely modest performers. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Dorney Lake heading the numbers on 64 despite a string of modest recent efforts. Several others sit in the mid-50s, underlining a race where course knowledge, going affinity and yard form at the track could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a truly-run race with plenty of early speed on show from high-drawn runners such as Koffee And Kale and Powernap, while low-drawn horses like Donald and Lieutenant Sir may look to get involved from the front. Dorney Lake and Hurt You Never are likely to track the leaders from their middle draws, with the race potentially unfolding at a strong gallop that could expose those with suspect stamina. The key question is whether the prominent runners can sustain their effort or if something coming from just off the pace will pick them up in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Dorney Lake KTB Selection64/100Modest performer who won over this trip earlier in his career but has been largely out of form this season with a string of modest efforts.
- 2Hurt You Never58/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough on this ground with six wins from 14 starts on good to firm.
- 3Saucy Jane58/100Modest performer who has shown some spark this year with two wins on good to firm ground including at today's trip.
- 4Spirit Of Applause56/100Modest performer with a solid record on good to firm, including two wins from 20 starts at this trip.
- 5Dicko The Legend56/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning.
- 6Koffee And Kale50/100Modest performer who has shown enough to be competitive on good to firm, including one placed effort from a single run on the surface.
- 7Mister Moet49/100Modest performer with a mixed record this year that includes two wins.
- 8Lieutenant Sir46/100Limited horse who has shown some improvement this year with a win and a placed effort over this trip.
- 9Powernap39/100Powernap is a limited performer who has shown some fight to finish second in two of her last three starts.
- 10Donald38/100Modest performer with recent form of 42-454 that suggests he is competitive at this level without being anything special.
- 11Bayraat37/100Bayraat is a limited performer on balance and has failed to place in two runs at this track.
The contenders
Dorney Lake KTB Fit 64/100
Dorney Lake is a modest performer who won over this trip earlier in his career but has been largely out of form this season with a string of modest efforts. He did win on his only previous visit to Doncaster though and the yard's record here is respectable with a 12% strike rate and A/E of 1.31 from 17 runs. The Liam Bailey-trained gelding drops back from 7f today having already shown he handles good to firm ground, on which he has two wins from ten starts. Miss Pippa Brown takes the ride with a neutral score at the track. From draw 9 he should be able to track the pace and given his sole course success he enters calculations as the KTB Selection.
Hurt You Never KTB Fit 58/100
Hurt You Never is a modest performer who has been consistent enough on this ground with six wins from 14 starts on good to firm. The Adrian Nicholls-trained seven-year-old has form at this trip but steps up in distance today for the first time in a while and his three runs here have produced no win or place from figures of 13th, 4th and 5th. Trainer strike rate at Doncaster stands at 7% with an A/E of 0.66 from 71 runs, though the booking of Mr Jack Lander is a plus with a 33% strike rate and A/E of 4.79 from three rides at the track. From draw 7 he should be prominent but the overall profile suggests he will need to improve on recent efforts of 703985.
Saucy Jane KTB Fit 58/100
Saucy Jane is a modest performer who has shown some spark this year with two wins on good to firm ground including at today's trip. Her recent form of 584261 includes a solid second last time but she can be inconsistent and has now had 15 runs without progressing much further. The Jack Morland-trained three-year-old makes her first appearance at Doncaster, where the yard has a 0% strike rate from one run and the jockey Mr Henry Callan is operating at 50% with an A/E of 5.2 from two rides. She has two wins from five starts on good to firm and from draw 8 she could be involved if her inconsistency is kept in check.
Spirit Of Applause KTB Fit 56/100
Spirit Of Applause is a modest performer with a solid record on good to firm, including two wins from 20 starts at this trip. Recent form of 433-43 shows consistent placed efforts though he has not won for some time. The Tim Easterby-trained six-year-old is ridden by Mr Thomas Easterby with the combination holding a 5/58 record and A/E of 0.52, while the trainer's own strike rate at Doncaster is 6% with an A/E of 0.67 from 1115 runs. The jockey has a 50% strike rate from two rides at the track with an A/E of 1.88. From draw 5 he should be on the premises but a first success for some time is required.
Dicko The Legend KTB Fit 56/100
Dicko The Legend is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning. The Liam Bailey-trained six-year-old had only one run here when well beaten and the jockey Miss Amy Collier is still seeking a first course winner from six rides. Trip suits and he has handled similar ground but the overall record suggests he will find a few too good again. Recent form reads 752963 and with a 12% trainer strike rate at Doncaster carrying an A/E of 1.31 from 17 runs there is some course encouragement, though the yard also sends out the selection from draw 9.
The rest of the field
Koffee And KaleKTB Fit 50/100
Koffee And Kale is a modest performer who has shown enough to be competitive on good to firm, including one placed effort from a single run on the surface. Steps up in trip today having been placed once at this distance without winning, and first-time headgear is now applied after a string of ordinary efforts.
Mister MoetKTB Fit 49/100
Mister Moet is a modest performer with a mixed record this year that includes two wins. Has won at today's trip from 12 attempts and has been placed on his only run on good to firm ground while dropping in class.
Lieutenant SirKTB Fit 46/100
Lieutenant Sir is a limited horse who has shown some improvement this year with a win and a placed effort over this trip while stepping up in class. Going suitability remains unknown with only five career starts on the board.
PowernapKTB Fit 39/100
Powernap is a limited performer who has shown some fight to finish second in two of her last three starts. She acts on good to firm ground and has been placed at today's trip though without winning while stepping up in class.
DonaldKTB Fit 38/100
Donald is a modest performer with recent form of 42-454 that suggests he is competitive at this level without being anything special. This is a step up in trip today for a horse with just six career starts.
BayraatKTB Fit 37/100
Bayraat is a limited performer on balance and has failed to place in two runs at this track. He arrives in decent form with two seconds from his last three starts and has won twice over today's trip while stepping up in class.
KTB verdict
Dorney Lake is the KTB Selection. A modest performer who won over this trip earlier in his career but has been largely out of form this season with a string of modest efforts, he did win on his only previous visit to Doncaster and the yard's record here is respectable. He drops back from 7f today having already shown he handles good to firm ground, and that prior course success gives him the edge. The main dangers are Hurt You Never, who has been consistent enough on this ground, and Saucy Jane, who showed some spark with a recent solid second. Spirit Of Applause and Dicko The Legend are next in the KTB Fit order and cannot be ruled out if the race falls their way.
KTB Selection Dorney Lake
This is the narrative read of the 5:40 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-winning form at Doncaster?
Dorney Lake won on his only previous visit to Doncaster.
What is the trainer strike rate at Doncaster for the yard of the KTB Selection?
Liam Bailey has a 12% strike rate at Doncaster with an A/E of 1.31 from 17 runs.
Which runner is making its first start in first-time headgear?
Koffee And Kale is fitted with first-time headgear.
How many wins has Hurt You Never recorded on good to firm ground?
Hurt You Never has six wins from 14 starts on good to firm.
Which principals are dropping or stepping up in class?
Mister Moet is dropping in class while Lieutenant Sir, Powernap and Bayraat are stepping up in class.
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