4:35 Curragh
The Comer Group International Irish St Leger Trial Stakes brings together a compact but high-quality field of seven smart performers over 1m6f on good ground at the Curragh. With a lone-leader pace shape that looks set to hand an uncontested advantage to the one horse prepared to take it, the race poses a clear test of whether any of the hold-up types can bridge the gap in the straight. KTB’s numbers highlight Carmers as the top-rated contender on 69, with the rest of the field clustered between 61 and 43, underlining a race where class, trip suitability and the first-time headgear factors are likely to prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is defined by a lone leader with high confidence, meaning one horse is expected to bowl along with little pressure and potentially an uncontested lead. Dallas Star is the clear front-runner by style and should be allowed to dictate terms from the outset. The remainder of the field, headed by prominent racer Queenstown and a cluster of held-up types including Carmers, Layfayette, Leinster, Kizlyar and Asakir, will be asked to close the gap in the straight. The key question is whether that uncontested lead can be reeled in by the closers or whether the leader will prove hard to peg back on this good surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Carmers KTB Selection69/100Smart performer who has won three from three on good ground and already has a win at this trip on his record.
- 2Queenstown61/100Smart performer who has won once and placed twice from four runs at the Curragh.
- 3Layfayette55/100Smart performer who has won five times at this track from 15 starts and looks to have the race connections in his favour.
- 4Leinster54/100Smart performer who has won twice at this track from four runs and also has a win over today's trip on his record.
- 5Kizlyar49/100Kizlyar is a useful performer with a solid recent record of 21-011 and has already shown he handles this trip, winning once from two starts at 1m6f.
- 6Asakir49/100Useful performer who has shown steady progress, winning at this trip before finishing a solid third over course and distance last time.
- 7Dallas Star43/100Dallas Star is a useful performer with solid placed form at this trip and on good ground, including two seconds from six runs at 1m6f.
The contenders
Carmers KTB Fit 69/100
Carmers arrives as the clear KTB pick with a Fit score of 69. A smart performer who has won three from three on good ground and already possesses a win at this trip, he looks well placed dropping back from 2m4f. First-time headgear is another positive according to the assessment. The P Twomey and W J Lee combination carries an excellent 27% strike rate with a positive A/E of 1.03 and LSP of +£65.24, while the yard’s 18% strike rate at the Curragh from 183 runs adds further encouragement even though the horse has no previous course form. Usually held up and producing his effort late, Carmers will need to overcome the lone-leader shape but his record on good ground and at the trip makes him the one to beat.
Queenstown KTB Fit 61/100
Queenstown is rated second on KTB’s figures with a Fit score of 61. A smart performer who has won once and placed twice from four runs at the Curragh, he brings strong course knowledge to the table. Consistent in defeat of late, his last five starts have produced three seconds and two thirds. He has never won over this trip, however, and is dropping back from 1m7½f. The Aidan O’Brien yard posts a 19% strike rate at the track from 4446 runs while Wayne Lordan’s Curragh record stands at 9% with an A/E of 0.86. Usually prominent and racing handily, Queenstown could track the leader but must prove he stays this distance strongly enough to challenge.
Layfayette KTB Fit 55/100
Layfayette is next on the KTB list with a Fit score of 55. A smart performer who has won five times at the Curragh from 15 starts, he clearly has the race connections in his favour and steps up in trip having won once from two starts at this distance. His record on good ground is only moderate, however, with just two wins from 18 attempts. The Noel Meade yard’s 7% strike rate at the Curragh from 924 runs is another negative. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, Layfayette will be coming from off the pace in a race where the leader may not come back. Adam Caffrey takes the ride with a 6% strike rate at the track.
Leinster KTB Fit 54/100
Leinster is the fourth and final principal on KTB’s list with a Fit score of 54. A smart performer who has won twice at this track from four runs and also has a win over today’s trip on his record, he has been consistent rather than progressive in recent starts. First-time headgear is now fitted after stepping up in distance. The Joseph Patrick O’Brien yard has an 11% strike rate at the Curragh from 1331 runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, Leinster will need the leader to come back to him. Declan McDonogh rides with an 8% strike rate at the venue.
The rest of the field
KizlyarKTB Fit 49/100
Kizlyar is a useful performer with a solid recent record of 21-011 and has already shown he handles this trip, winning once from two starts at 1m6f. He drops back from 2m4f, which looks a sensible move, and his sole run on good ground produced a win. The Joseph Patrick O’Brien yard has an 11% strike rate at the Curragh from 1331 runs while jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle posts a 12% strike rate at the track. Usually held up, he will need to bridge the gap to the leader.
AsakirKTB Fit 49/100
Asakir is a useful performer who has shown steady progress, winning at this trip before finishing a solid third over course and distance last time. The lightly-raced profile means the going remains an unknown and the one run at this exact distance produced no win. The J P Murtagh yard strikes at 10% here from 862 runs. Usually held up, Asakir will be another coming from off the pace in a race with a clear leader.
Dallas StarKTB Fit 43/100
Dallas Star is a useful performer with solid placed form at this trip and on good ground, including two seconds from six runs at 1m6f. He has shown up well at the Curragh too with a second and a third from three starts here. The Robson De Aguiar yard’s modest 7% strike-rate at the track is a negative. The one clear front-runner, he is set to make the running in a race with a lone-leader shape.
KTB verdict
Carmers is the KTB Selection. A smart performer with a flawless record on good ground and a win already in the book at this trip, he drops back from 2m4f in first-time headgear for a yard that knows how to strike at the Curragh. His held-up style must deal with the uncontested lead that Dallas Star is likely to be gifted, yet the combination of surface, trip and the positive headgear read make him the most convincing candidate. Queenstown brings the strongest course record and recent consistency while Layfayette’s five wins at the venue cannot be ignored, even if his good-ground record is modest. Leinster’s course-and-distance ability adds depth to what looks a competitive trial.
KTB Selection Carmers
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:02 UTC, 22 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Carmers | 7/4 | Betfred |
| Layfayette | 13/2 | Bet Victor |
| Leinster | 9/1 | BresBet |
| Asakir | 7/1 | Betfred |
| Dallas Star | 25/1 | Betfred |
This is the narrative read of the 4:35 Curragh. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Curragh racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Dallas Star, whose run-style is front-runner with high confidence, is set to make the running in a lone-leader pace shape.
How many wins has Carmers recorded on good ground?
Carmers has three wins from three starts on good ground.
Which horse has won the most times at the Curragh?
Layfayette has won five times at the Curragh from 15 starts.
What is the trainer strike rate at the Curragh for the yard of the KTB Selection?
P Twomey has an 18% strike rate at the Curragh from 183 runs.
How many of the principals are wearing first-time headgear?
Two of the principals, Carmers and Leinster, are wearing first-time headgear.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies