4:40 Navan
This 1m2f40y handicap at Navan on good to firm ground brings together an 11-runner field where recent form is mixed and several runners arrive with first-time headgear. The KTB numbers identify a clear top pick on 59 while the next four principals sit on an identical 52, suggesting a race with one standout on figures but plenty of depth among the remainder. With the majority unproven on the surface and several lacking course experience, the contest looks open despite the standout contender from stall one.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a fairly even tempo with no obvious front-runner dominating. Genoah from draw one and Raydamann from draw two are likely to track the pace closely while several others, including Cala Bonita and Steel Cut, should be positioned just off the leaders. The key question is whether the race will be won from a handy position or if the hold-up horses can land a telling blow in what may develop into a sprint for the line inside the final two furlongs.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Genoah KTB Selection59/100
- 2Sonoran52/100
- 3Cala Bonita52/100
- 4Steel Cut52/100
- 5Felix Somary52/100
- 6Raydamann47/100
- 7Beauparc46/100
- 8Letiza45/100
- 9Admiral Will Brown44/100
- 10Daonethatgotaway41/100
- 11Lady Chartwell39/100
The contenders
Genoah KTB Fit 59/100
Genoah stands out on KTB figures with a Fit score of 59 and is the clear selection. A 5-year-old with form figures of 1-1902, he showed his best when second last time out and now tries first-time headgear. The trainer has a 16% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.09 while the jockey posts an 8% strike rate here with an A/E of 1. He has been placed once from one run on good to firm and is drawn in stall one, which should allow him to adopt a prominent run-style. Competitive on his best efforts, he looks to have the best chance in a race where many are unproven on the surface.
Sonoran KTB Fit 52/100
Sonoran is rated a principal on a KTB Fit of 52 and arrives with first-time headgear. His recent form reads 3-0369 and he has shown enough ability to be considered at this level. The trainer has a 12% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.82 and the jockey records a 7% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.77. Unproven on good to firm having had no runs on the surface, he is another without course form. Drawn in three, he is expected to be positioned just behind the leaders and could improve for the new headgear if the ground does not prove against him.
Cala Bonita KTB Fit 52/100
Cala Bonita also carries a KTB Fit of 52 and comes into the race with the form 2118-4. She has shown winning form in the past and her latest effort suggests she remains competitive. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.28 while the jockey has a 3% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.63. She has one run on good to firm without placing and finished tenth on her only previous start at the course. From draw nine she is likely to race in mid-division or further back, and first-time headgear is now applied as she attempts to bounce back.
Steel Cut KTB Fit 52/100
Steel Cut is another on 52 in the KTB Fit rankings and has the recent form 9-25. He has shown promise in his two starts this season and now tries first-time headgear. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.04 while the 5lb claimer has a 4% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.37. Unproven on good to firm, he lacks any course form. Drawn in six, his run-style should see him race prominently or just off the pace, and any improvement for the headgear would bring him right into the equation.
Felix Somary KTB Fit 52/100
Felix Somary completes the principals with a KTB Fit of 52. A 3-year-old with form figures of 40-990, he has struggled in recent starts but the yard has a strong 23% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.86. The jockey has a 0% strike rate at the track from nine rides with an A/E of 0. Unproven on good to firm and without course form, he now tries first-time headgear. From stall five he should be able to race in a handy position, and any return to his earlier form would make him dangerous at a bigger price.
The rest of the field
RaydamannKTB Fit 47/100
Raydamann has a KTB Fit of 47 and recent form of /060-0. The trainer has a 16% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.9 while the jockey posts a 7% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.71. He is unproven on good to firm and has placed once from two starts at the course. His prominent run-style from draw two could see him involved early.
BeauparcKTB Fit 46/100
Beauparc is rated 46 on KTB Fit with form figures 134726. He tries first-time headgear for a yard with a 3% strike rate at Navan and an A/E of 0.44. The jockey has a 0% strike rate here from 16 rides. Unproven on good to firm and without course form, he is drawn widest in 11.
LetizaKTB Fit 45/100
Letiza has a KTB Fit of 45 and form of 81860-. The trainer has no Navan record while the jockey has a 5% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.66. She is unproven on good to firm but has placed on her only previous start here. She could be given another chance on that course effort.
Admiral Will BrownKTB Fit 44/100
Admiral Will Brown carries a KTB Fit of 44 with form 877-7. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1 while the jockey records a 7% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.96. Unproven on good to firm and without course form, he is another 3-year-old in the field.
DaonethatgotawayKTB Fit 41/100
Daonethatgotaway is on 41 in the KTB Fit with form 321420 and now tries first-time headgear. The trainer has a 2% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.31 while the jockey has a 0% strike rate here from three rides. He has placed once from two starts at the course but remains unproven on good to firm.
Lady ChartwellKTB Fit 39/100
Lady Chartwell has the lowest KTB Fit on 39 and recent form of 5500-0. The trainer has a 0% strike rate at Navan from two runs while the jockey posts a 4% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.59. She has had three runs on good to firm without placing and lacks course form.
KTB verdict
Genoah is the KTB Selection and sets a clear standard on a Fit score of 59. He has shown strong recent form including a win and a second, acts on the ground having been placed on good to firm, and the first-time headgear could sharpen him further from a good draw. His prominent run-style should suit the likely shape of the race. The main dangers are Sonoran and Cala Bonita, both on 52 and open to improvement with headgear, while Steel Cut and Felix Somary cannot be ruled out if the new headgear brings the expected step forward.
KTB Selection Genoah
This is the narrative read of the 4:40 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course and distance experience at Navan?
None of the runners have a course-and-distance winning record. Raydamann, Letiza and Daonethatgotaway have placed over the course but not at this exact trip.
How many runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Seven runners are wearing first-time headgear: Genoah, Sonoran, Cala Bonita, Steel Cut, Felix Somary, Beauparc and Daonethatgotaway.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Navan in this field?
John S O'Donoghue has a 23% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.86 from 13 runs.
Who has the best placed record on good to firm ground?
Genoah has been placed once from one run on good to firm. Lady Chartwell has had three runs on the surface without placing while Cala Bonita has one run without a place.
Which jockey has the highest strike rate at Navan among those riding in this race?
Leigh Roche has an 8% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1 from 325 rides.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies