5:15 Navan
A competitive 0-60 handicap over 1m2f40y at Navan on good to firm ground brings together 14 runners, many of whom arrive with first-time headgear and questions to answer on the surface. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Deuteronomy heading the numbers on 62, followed by Trishuli River on 56 and a cluster around the low-50s. Official ratings sit in the typical 0-60 band, recent form is mixed, and several trainers show positive A/E figures at the venue despite modest strike rates.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a race that should be truly run, with a good spread of run-styles from prominent types in lower draws to those who prefer to come from off the pace. Robot Rock from stall 1 and Rising Sky in 2 are likely to be forward, while higher draws such as Trishuli River and Haughty may settle further back. The key question is whether the first-time headgear on so many runners sparks improvement at the right moment, and whether the prominent runners can hold off the closers in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Deuteronomy KTB Selection62/100
- 2Trishuli River56/100
- 3Jazz Forever51/100
- 4Rising Sky51/100
- 5Arch Enemy50/100
- 6Retro Gal44/100
- 7Robot Rock43/100
- 8Cleopatra's Needle42/100
- 9Autocrat41/100
- 10Copper Craft41/100
- 11Thegooseiscooked38/100
- 12Gold Dublooms38/100
- 13One For Teigan37/100
- 14Haughty32/100
The contenders
Deuteronomy KTB Fit 62/100
Deuteronomy is the KTB Selection and tops the Fit ratings on 62. A 7-year-old with recent form of 088105, he showed ability when winning on his penultimate start. The first-time headgear is now applied as he runs for trainer R P Burns and jockey Nicola Burns, who combine for an 8/68 record with a positive A/E of 1.58 and LSP of +£12.50. The yard has an 11% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.53, though the jockey is yet to score there from 16 rides. He has only one run on good to firm and no previous course form, yet the numbers suggest he can be competitive from draw 9.
Trishuli River KTB Fit 56/100
Trishuli River is rated second in the KTB Fit on 56. The 6-year-old has form figures of -52300 and now tries first-time headgear. Trained by Shane Crawley and ridden by James Ryan, the partnership has a modest 1/9 record. The trainer posts a 9% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.58, while the jockey is on 4% with an A/E of 0.65 from 114 rides at the track. He has a single run on good to firm without placing and no course history. From draw 12 he will need to show more than his latest efforts to figure prominently.
Jazz Forever KTB Fit 51/100
Jazz Forever carries a KTB Fit of 51. This 6-year-old has form of 0-4830 and is another wearing first-time headgear. Paul W Flynn trains and Robert Whearty rides; their record together is 19/164 with an A/E of 1.22. The yard’s Navan record stands at 6% with an A/E of 0.82 from 210 runs, but the jockey has a stronger 9% strike rate and A/E of 1.05 from 99 rides here. He is unproven on good to firm having had no runs on the surface. The horse has placed once from three starts at Navan, recording a third and a fourth, which gives him some local knowledge from draw 7.
Rising Sky KTB Fit 51/100
Rising Sky also scores 51 on the KTB Fit. The 4-year-old has recent form of 718030 and tries first-time headgear. Anthony McCann is the trainer and Patrick McGettigan the jockey, with a combined 2/14 record and A/E of 1.17. The stable is 4% at Navan with an A/E of 0.83, while the jockey is also on 4% with an A/E of 0.59 from 24 rides at the venue. Unproven on good to firm, he has no course form to call upon. Drawn in stall 2, his ability to race prominently could be an asset if the headgear brings about the required improvement.
Arch Enemy KTB Fit 50/100
Arch Enemy is given a KTB Fit of 50. A 7-year-old with form 075-66, he lines up without a recent win. Patrick Magee trains and Sam Coen rides, the pair holding a 1/7 record. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.17, but the jockey is on 4% with a lower A/E of 0.37 from 28 rides. He has no experience of good to firm ground and has shown little from two runs at the course, finishing ninth and eighth. From draw 8 he will need to find more than his latest efforts suggest.
The rest of the field
Retro GalKTB Fit 44/100
Retro Gal is a 3-year-old with KTB Fit of 44 and form 77-780. Henry De Bromhead trains and Conor Cusack rides, the combination 2/20 with an A/E of 1.05. The yard has a 10% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.67, though the jockey is 0/3 at the track. Unproven on good to firm and first-time headgear is applied; she has no course form.
Robot RockKTB Fit 43/100
Robot Rock, a 4-year-old rated 43 on KTB Fit, has form 2-0080. A J Martin trains and Robbie Colgan rides, their record 36/498 with an A/E of 0.77. The stable is 9% at Navan with an A/E of 0.77, the jockey 3% with an A/E of 0.63. First-time headgear is worn; unproven on good to firm with no course form. Likely to be prominent from draw 1.
Cleopatra's NeedleKTB Fit 42/100
Cleopatra's Needle is an 8-year-old with KTB Fit of 42 and recent form 520-22. H Rogers trains and Chris Hayes rides, the partnership 38/594 with an A/E of 0.75. The yard is 4% at Navan with an A/E of 0.52, the jockey 7% with an A/E of 0.71. She has won once from six starts at the course and has one run on good to firm without placing; first-time headgear is now fitted.
AutocratKTB Fit 41/100
Autocrat, a 6-year-old with KTB Fit 41, has form -41700. P Sweeney trains and Mel Sheridan rides. The yard is 0% from two runs at Navan. First-time headgear is applied; unproven on good to firm. He finished ninth on his only previous start here.
Copper CraftKTB Fit 41/100
Copper Craft is a 4-year-old rated 41 on KTB Fit with form 4-3207. A Oliver trains and Gary Carroll rides, the pair 24/292 with an A/E of 0.98. The stable is 8% at Navan with an A/E of 1.04, the jockey 7% with an A/E of 0.77. First-time headgear goes on; he is unproven on good to firm and has no course form.
ThegooseiscookedKTB Fit 38/100
Thegooseiscooked is a 9-year-old with KTB Fit of 38 and form 764-00. Gerard Keane trains and Rory Cleary rides, their record 1/51 with an A/E of 0.25. The yard is 3% at Navan with an A/E of 0.44, the jockey 5% with an A/E of 0.75. He has been placed both starts on good to firm but is yet to win on it; finished seventh on his only course visit.
Gold DubloomsKTB Fit 38/100
Gold Dublooms, a 4-year-old with KTB Fit 38, has form 350-90. Eamonn O'Connell trains and Leigh Roche rides, the combination 1/11 with an A/E of 1.48. The stable is 7% at Navan with an A/E of 0.79, the jockey 8% with an A/E of 1.00. First-time headgear is applied; unproven on good to firm with no course form.
One For TeiganKTB Fit 37/100
One For Teigan is a 5-year-old rated 37 on KTB Fit with form 090-00. P Sweeney trains and Wesley Joyce rides. The yard has a 0% strike rate from two runs at Navan. Unproven on good to firm with no course form.
HaughtyKTB Fit 32/100
Haughty, a 6-year-old with KTB Fit of 32, has form 0968-0. V C Ward trains and Killian Leonard rides, their record 0/12 with an A/E of 0.00. The stable is 2% at Navan with an A/E of 0.38, the jockey 4% with an A/E of 0.6. He has two runs on good to firm without placing and no course form.
KTB verdict
Deuteronomy is the KTB Selection and sets the standard on a Fit rating of 62. He has shown enough in recent starts, including a win, to suggest he can go well for the Burns team, whose Navan figures are positive, especially with the first-time headgear to help. The selection should be suited by a truly run race from his middle draw. The main dangers are Trishuli River, who has the second-highest Fit score and similar trainer A/E numbers at the track, and Jazz Forever, who brings placed course form and a jockey with a solid Navan record. Cleopatra's Needle cannot be dismissed either given her course win and recent consistency, while the remainder of the field look held on the current numbers.
KTB Selection Deuteronomy
This is the narrative read of the 5:15 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit rating and is the selection?
Deuteronomy on 62/100.
How many runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Ten runners are fitted with first-time headgear: Deuteronomy, Trishuli River, Jazz Forever, Rising Sky, Arch Enemy, Retro Gal, Robot Rock, Cleopatra's Needle, Autocrat, Copper Craft and Gold Dublooms.
Which horse has previous winning form at Navan?
Cleopatra's Needle has won here from six starts.
Who has the best trainer strike-rate at Navan among the principals?
R P Burns with an 11% strike rate at Navan and A/E 1.53.
Which runners are unproven on good to firm ground?
Jazz Forever, Rising Sky, Arch Enemy, Retro Gal, Robot Rock, Autocrat, Copper Craft, Gold Dublooms and One For Teigan are unproven on good to firm.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
More from Kickthebookies