4:45 Catterick
This Class 5 handicap over the extended 7f at Catterick on good ground brings together ten modest performers, several with previous experience at the track. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top end, with Evocative Spark heading the numbers on 67 while the remainder sit between 60 and 47. Course form, the first-time application of headgear to multiple runners and the unusually uncontested pace shape are the main strands that stand out in the data supplied.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to one clear front-runner facing little pressure. Runninsonofagun is the only confirmed front-runner in the field and should be allowed an uncontested lead from his draw in three. The remaining nine runners are all held-up types, which sets a clear question: can any of them close the gap effectively on a track where an easy lead can prove hard to peg back?
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Evocative Spark KTB Selection67/100Modest performer who knows this track well and has won four times from seven starts at Catterick.
- 2Folkene60/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in three starts this year after a lengthy break.
- 3Willolarupi59/100Modest performer who has been placed without winning in three of his four runs at Catterick and has shown similar ability on good ground.
- 4Runninsonofagun56/100Modest performer with a solid recent record of 351322 that includes three placed efforts in the last four starts.
- 5Vince Le Prince53/100Modest performer with a solid Catterick record of three wins from 12 starts and placed efforts in two of his last three visits here.
- 6Classy Clarets53/100Modest performer who has been in excellent form of late with four wins from his last five starts.
- 7No Return53/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning for some time, finishing in the frame on four of his last six starts.
- 8Black Storm52/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough of late without winning, finishing in the first five on his last six starts.
- 9Carolus Magnus49/100Modest performer with a solid recent record that includes two seconds in his last three starts.
- 10Emerald Army47/100Emerald Army is a limited horse who has been in and out of form this year but showed his best side when winning over this trip at Catterick last time.
The contenders
Evocative Spark KTB Fit 67/100
Evocative Spark is a modest performer who knows Catterick well and has won four times from only seven starts at the track. He has scored three times on good ground and four times at this trip, though his recent form of 117147 shows a mixed bag of results. First-time headgear is now fitted while the trainer holds a solid 15% strike rate here from 87 runs. The combination of jockey Ethan Tindall and trainer John David Riches carries a positive 5/24 record with an A/E of 1.78. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be hoping the uncontested lead up front sets up a race that plays into the hands of closers. The KTB Fit rating of 67 marks him as the top horse in the numbers.
Folkene KTB Fit 60/100
Folkene is a modest performer who has shown little spark in three starts this year after a lengthy break. He did win over this trip last season and the yard has a solid 10% strike-rate at Catterick from a big sample. Oisin McSweeney is 0-8 here though and the small overall career footprint leaves plenty of questions. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the race to fall right given the uncontested lead likely to be taken by Runninsonofagun. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 2/33 record with an A/E of 0.70. His KTB Fit rating of 60 places him second in the numbers but there are clear reservations.
Willolarupi KTB Fit 59/100
Willolarupi is a modest performer who has been placed without winning in three of his four runs at Catterick and has shown similar ability on good ground. He steps up to 7f for the first time today after a string of consistent but unprogressive efforts at 6f. Trainer Declan Carroll has a solid 10% strike rate from 324 runs here while jockey Zak Wheatley is unproven at the track. Usually held up, though with medium confidence in that assessment, he will be aiming to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time. His recent form of 6553-4 underlines steady but limited ability. The KTB Fit rating of 59 keeps him in the conversation.
Runninsonofagun KTB Fit 56/100
Runninsonofagun is a modest performer with a solid recent record of 351322 that includes three placed efforts in the last four starts. He has shown he can handle this trip and acts on good ground with a win and four places from eight attempts. First time headgear is now tried while the yard holds a respectable 14% strike rate at the track. As the only front-runner in the field he is set to take the uncontested lead according to the pace shape and that could prove a significant advantage. The trainer and jockey combination of Tristan Davidson and Jack Garritty has produced a 13% strike rate at Catterick. His KTB Fit rating of 56 leaves him just behind the top three in the numbers.
Vince Le Prince KTB Fit 53/100
Vince Le Prince is a modest performer with a solid Catterick record of three wins from 12 starts and placed efforts in two of his last three visits here. He drops back to 7f having been well held over a mile last time and now tries headgear for the first time. On good ground he has one win and six places from 18 starts. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the leader to come back to him if the pace shape holds true. The Tim Easterby and David Allan partnership shows an 11% strike rate at the track. His KTB Fit rating of 53 places him on the fringes of the principals.
The rest of the field
Classy ClaretsKTB Fit 53/100
Classy Clarets is a modest performer who has been in excellent form of late with four wins from his last five starts. He has won at this trip before and also has a Catterick success on his record though he steps up from 5f today. First-time headgear is now applied while the yard's modest strike rate here tempers expectations.
No ReturnKTB Fit 53/100
No Return is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning for some time, finishing in the frame on four of his last six starts. He has shown he can act on good ground with two wins from ten starts and has placed once at this trip, though he steps up in distance today for the first time since early in his career. The yard has a solid 16% strike rate at Catterick from 61 runs.
Black StormKTB Fit 52/100
Black Storm is a modest performer who has been consistent enough of late without winning, finishing in the first five on his last six starts. He has won at this trip and has placed four times from seven runs on good ground so the conditions look suitable enough. Trainer has a solid 17% strike rate at Catterick while first-time headgear is now tried.
Carolus MagnusKTB Fit 49/100
Carolus Magnus is a modest performer with a solid recent record that includes two seconds in his last three starts. He has won at today's trip and handles good ground, though his record at Catterick is unproven. The Easterby yard's modest strike rate here adds a note of caution.
Emerald ArmyKTB Fit 47/100
Emerald Army is a limited horse who has been in and out of form this year but showed his best side when winning over this trip at Catterick last time. He acts on good ground and has a solid course record of one win from eight runs here. The yard maintains a 12 percent strike rate at the track from a large sample.
KTB verdict
Evocative Spark is the KTB Selection. A modest performer who knows this track well and has won four times from seven starts at Catterick, he brings the highest Fit rating and the benefit of first-time headgear in a race where his held-up style could be favoured if the leader is allowed an easy time. The selection has scored three times on good ground and four times at this trip, and the trainer-jockey combination holds positive figures at the venue. Main dangers include Runninsonofagun, who is likely to take the uncontested lead and could prove hard to peg back, along with the in-form Classy Clarets and the consistent Black Storm, both of whom also sport first-time headgear.
KTB Selection Evocative Spark
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 Catterick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Catterick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the only confirmed front-runner and what advantage does the pace shape give it?
Runninsonofagun is the only front-runner. The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting an uncontested lead that can be hard for closers to peg back.
How many times has Evocative Spark won at Catterick and on good ground?
Evocative Spark has won four times from seven starts at Catterick and three times from 13 starts on good ground.
Which runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Evocative Spark, Runninsonofagun, Vince Le Prince, Classy Clarets and Black Storm are all fitted with first-time headgear.
Which horse has the strongest trainer strike rate at Catterick among the principals?
Evocative Spark's trainer has a 15% strike rate at Catterick from 87 runs with an A/E of 1.37.
How many of the field have previously won over today's trip?
Evocative Spark has won four times at this trip, Folkene has won over this trip last season, Classy Clarets has won at this trip before, Black Storm has won at this trip and Carolus Magnus has won at today's trip.
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