4:45 York
This Class 2 nursery over 7f at York on good ground brings together a maximum field of 22 two-year-olds, many of them lightly raced and open to further improvement. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Big Cigar just heading the list on 65, followed closely by Shadow King on 64 and Soldier Of The Sea on 63. With several previous course winners and placed performers in the line-up, plus a strong pace expected, the race promises to be a thorough test of both class and positioning.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated given the presence of multiple habitual front-runners, including Revels, Roosike, Perfect Nation, Regal Tiger and Rbflying. This early speed could lead to a late collapse, playing into the hands of hold-up performers. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate terms or if the race will fall apart in the final furlong, allowing those coming from further back, such as the selection, to capitalise on the shape.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Big Cigar KTB Selection65/100Useful performer who has already won here from two runs at York.
- 2Shadow King64/100Fair performer who has shown a mixed bag in five starts, winning twice including once at this trip.
- 3Soldier Of The Sea63/100Fair performer who made a winning start before finishing second last time.
- 4Revels61/100Useful performer who has already won twice in three starts including on good ground.
- 5Caeruleus57/100Fair performer who has shown useful placed form mixed with two modest efforts.
- 6Rising Tiger56/100Rising Tiger has shown consistent placed form in three starts and looks fair at this level on the figures.
- 7Bymiddaytomorrow55/100Fair performer who has improved markedly since switching to handicaps, winning both starts at this trip.
- 8Weleyff54/100Has won two of three starts including this trip and looks fair at this level.
- 9Roosike54/100Has won one of two starts at this trip and finished a solid third in a nursery last time, showing fair form for a 2-year-old with only three runs.
- 10Perfect Nation53/100Fair performer who has won two of his three starts including at this trip.
- 11Mia Fantasia52/100Mia Fantasia is a fair 2-year-old who has already won at this trip and shown useful placed form in stronger company on her latest start.
- 12The Ginger Kid47/100Fair performer who has shown useful placed form at this trip but finished a disappointing 13th on his only previous visit to York.
- 13My A'Ali Baba47/100Fair performer who has shown a mixed bag since winning on debut, with two placed efforts at this trip but also some lesser runs at longer distances.
- 14Mirzimaan46/100Mirzimaan has shown fair form in three runs and looks to have more to offer as he steps up to 7f for the first time.
- 15Koodini46/100Koodini is a modest performer who has shown some consistency, finishing in the first three on three of his last four starts including a win at this trip.
- 16Theheatison46/100Modest performer on the balance of his five runs with form figures of 55143.
- 17Telegraphic46/100Fair performer who has shown useful form in three runs, winning at this trip on his second start.
- 18High Calibre41/100Modest performer who has shown little progress across four runs and was well held when second on handicap debut last time.
- 19Regal Tiger41/100Regal Tiger has shown consistent placed form in three starts at a lower level, finishing second twice.
- 20High Hazard38/100Modest performer who has shown a bit of ability, finishing second and third in two of his four starts at this trip.
- 21Rbflying38/100Modest performer who has shown a bit of ability here, finishing third on his second visit to the track.
- 22Fasthope37/100Modest performer who has shown steady progress and won a nursery over 6f last time out.
The contenders
Big Cigar KTB Fit 65/100
Big Cigar is a useful performer who has already won here from two runs at York. Recent form has been mixed with a win and two placed efforts alongside two poor runs, while he is now trying this trip for the first time having failed to score over it on his only previous attempt. The yard and apprentice both have modest strike rates at the track though their A/E figures suggest they perform above expectations. Dropping in class should help and his course record of one win from two starts is a major plus. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well suited by the expected strong pace that could collapse. With the KTB Fit score of 65 he tops the ratings and is the selection.
Shadow King KTB Fit 64/100
Shadow King is a fair performer who has shown a mixed bag in five starts, winning twice including once at this trip. Stall two looks ideal on a track where the yard and jockey both have solid records. First-time headgear is an unknown and the small sample makes the going hard to pin down. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the strong pace likely to unfold. The Richard Hannon yard posts an 11% strike rate at York with an A/E of 0.96 from 347 runs while Sean Levey records 13% with an A/E of 1.23 from 119 rides. With a KTB Fit of 64 he is a leading contender.
Soldier Of The Sea KTB Fit 63/100
Soldier Of The Sea is a fair performer who made a winning start before finishing second last time. Steps up to 7f for the first time today which asks a fresh question, though the yard's solid 12% strike rate at York and Hector Crouch's 14% record here provide some encouragement. Lightly raced on this ground but showed he handles it when scoring on debut. Stepping up in class, he has a KTB Fit of 63 and his trainer-jockey combination shows a 20% strike rate with an A/E of 2.25 and positive LSP of +£28.66. His prominent position in the market read adds interest in a race where the pace should suit those coming from off it.
Revels KTB Fit 61/100
Revels is a useful performer who has already won twice in three starts including on good ground. Steps up to 7f for the first time today having scored at the trip on his debut, though the wide draw in stall 20 is a clear negative. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at York. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he could set the strong tempo that is forecast. With a KTB Fit of 61 he remains a serious player if he can overcome the draw, and his 1 win from 1 on good ground is a positive on the prevailing surface.
Caeruleus KTB Fit 57/100
Caeruleus is a fair performer who has shown useful placed form mixed with two modest efforts. The wide draw in stall 12 is a clear negative on this track. Trainer continues in solid form here while the jockey's modest strike rate is well known. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should appreciate the strong pace that is likely to develop. The yard has a 14% strike rate at York with an A/E of 1.85 from 50 runs, though David Egan is on 8% with an A/E of 0.74 from 168 rides. His KTB Fit of 57 keeps him in the mix despite the draw.
The rest of the field
Rising TigerKTB Fit 56/100
Rising Tiger has shown consistent placed form in three starts and looks fair at this level on the figures. He has been placed both times at today's trip and the wide draw in stall 21 is the main negative from a big-field York race. Trainer and jockey both hold solid records at the track.
BymiddaytomorrowKTB Fit 55/100
Bymiddaytomorrow is a fair performer who has improved markedly since switching to handicaps, winning both starts at this trip. York form reads well and the yard's record here is solid. Lightly raced on this ground but the one run produced a win.
WeleyffKTB Fit 54/100
Weleyff has won two of three starts including this trip and looks fair at this level. Drawn widest of all which is far from ideal on a track that often favours those with a more central berth. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates here.
RoosikeKTB Fit 54/100
Roosike has won one of two starts at this trip and finished a solid third in a nursery last time, showing fair form for a 2-year-old with only three runs. The Richard Hughes yard has a strong 19% strike-rate at York from 36 runs. Joe Leavy is still seeking his first winner here from 13 rides.
Perfect NationKTB Fit 53/100
Perfect Nation is a fair performer who has won two of his three starts including at this trip. Drops back from 7.5f today having already scored twice over 7f so the distance looks ideal and he acts on good ground. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at York.
Mia FantasiaKTB Fit 52/100
Mia Fantasia is a fair 2-year-old who has already won at this trip and shown useful placed form in stronger company on her latest start. She has the benefit of a jockey in good form at the track but the yard's modest strike rate here is a concern. With only three runs behind her the colt remains lightly raced and open to further improvement.
The Ginger KidKTB Fit 47/100
The Ginger Kid is a fair performer who has shown useful placed form at this trip but finished a disappointing 13th on his only previous visit to York. He has already won on good ground so the surface is no issue and the yard's record here is respectable. Stall 10 and a modest jockey strike-rate at the track add some negatives.
My A'Ali BabaKTB Fit 47/100
My A'Ali Baba is a fair performer who has shown a mixed bag since winning on debut, with two placed efforts at this trip but also some lesser runs at longer distances. Dropping back from 1m should suit and the yard has a solid record at York despite the modest strike rate. Stall one could be an advantage on good ground but the small sample on this surface leaves the going question open.
MirzimaanKTB Fit 46/100
Mirzimaan has shown fair form in three runs and looks to have more to offer as he steps up to 7f for the first time. The trip is an unknown that could suit him. George Boughey has a 7% strike rate from 46 runs at York while William Buick records a 16% strike rate from 458 rides here.
KoodiniKTB Fit 46/100
Koodini is a modest performer who has shown some consistency, finishing in the first three on three of his last four starts including a win at this trip. He tries headgear for the first time today and is drawn wide in stall 22 which will make life tougher. The trainer has a modest 7% strike rate at York from a big sample while the jockey is 1-20 here.
TheheatisonKTB Fit 46/100
Theheatison is a modest performer on the balance of his five runs with form figures of 55143. Has twice tried this trip without success and is drawn wide in stall 15. Jockey Silvestre De Sousa has a solid 10% strike rate from 518 rides at York while the trainer has no recorded runs here.
TelegraphicKTB Fit 46/100
Telegraphic is a fair performer who has shown useful form in three runs, winning at this trip on his second start. Drawn in stall 14 and faces a stiffer task now up in class. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at York.
High CalibreKTB Fit 41/100
High Calibre is a modest performer who has shown little progress across four runs and was well held when second on handicap debut last time. Dropping back from 1m to 7f asks a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 18 is far from ideal at York. Trainer has a solid 11% strike rate here from 347 runs but the jockey is 0-5 at the track.
Regal TigerKTB Fit 41/100
Regal Tiger has shown consistent placed form in three starts at a lower level, finishing second twice. He is only a modest performer on the class read and steps up to 7f for the first time today, which asks a fresh question. The trainer has a modest 7% strike rate at York from 153 runs while the jockey is 3% from 255 rides here.
High HazardKTB Fit 38/100
High Hazard is a modest performer who has shown a bit of ability, finishing second and third in two of his four starts at this trip. First-time headgear is now applied and the wide draw in stall 19 will make life tough from a big field. Trainer has a modest 7% strike-rate at York while the jockey is even quieter at 2%.
RbflyingKTB Fit 38/100
Rbflying is a modest performer who has shown a bit of ability here, finishing third on his second visit to the track. He has been below that level on his last two starts though and first-time headgear is now reached for after five runs. The yard and jockey both have modest strike rates at York.
FasthopeKTB Fit 37/100
Fasthope is a modest performer who has shown steady progress and won a nursery over 6f last time out. Steps up to 7f for the first time today which asks a fresh question, though the yard's modest 6% strike-rate at York from a huge sample suggests limited encouragement. Tom Kiely-Marshall is still seeking his first winner at the track from 20 rides.
KTB verdict
Big Cigar is the KTB Selection. A useful performer with a course win already on his record, he has the right run style to benefit from the strong pace that is forecast and is dropping in class. The yard and apprentice have modest strike rates at York but their A/E figures indicate they perform above expectations. His main dangers are Shadow King, who has a good draw and first-time headgear, Soldier Of The Sea who brings light racing and encouraging trainer-jockey figures at the track, and Revels who can make the running but must overcome a wide draw.
KTB Selection Big Cigar
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:09 UTC, 20 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Revels | 17/2 | talkSPORT BET |
| Caeruleus | 22/1 | Midnite |
| Rising Tiger | 5/1 | Midnite |
| Bymiddaytomorrow | 22/1 | Midnite |
| Weleyff | 11/2 | Bet Victor |
| Mia Fantasia | 10/3 | Midnite |
| The Ginger Kid | 12/1 | Bet Victor |
| Koodini | 66/1 | Midnite |
| Rbflying | 66/1 | Midnite |
| Fasthope | 66/1 | Virgin Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the early pace?
Revels, Roosike, Perfect Nation, Regal Tiger and Rbflying tend to make the running or race prominently.
How does the expected pace shape influence the race?
Strong pace is likely with two or more habitual front-runners, which could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which horse has already won at York?
Big Cigar has won here from two runs at the track.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at York among the principals?
Richard Hughes has a 19% strike rate at York from 36 runs with Roosike.
Which runners are wearing headgear for the first time?
Shadow King, Koodini and High Hazard and Rbflying are all wearing first-time headgear.
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