5:20 York
This Class 2 British EBF Fillies' Handicap at York over 7f on good ground brings together a field of 21, many of them useful performers with recent placed form or wins at the trip. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Bella Lyra heading the list on 68, closely followed by Bellarchi on 67 and then Royal Velvet, Mubasimah and Albaydaa all on 60 or above. Several runners are dropping in class while others step up, and the York records of the trainers and jockeys add further layers to a race that looks competitive on paper.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is expected to be strong, and the early fractions could prove testing. Mubasimah, Tryst and Starlight Lass are all inclined to race prominently or make the running, while Bella Lyra usually races handily. This sets up a race that could collapse late and play into the hands of those held up towards the rear, with several principals including Bellarchi, Royal Velvet and Albaydaa all having that run style.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Bella Lyra KTB Selection68/100Useful performer who has shown steady placed form at this trip without winning.
- 2Bellarchi67/100Bellarchi is a useful performer with a solid strike-rate on good ground and seven wins at this trip from 22 starts.
- 3Royal Velvet63/100Useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 4Mubasimah63/100Useful performer who has been a bit in and out this year, showing her best when runner-up on reappearance before two lesser efforts.
- 5Albaydaa60/100Albaydaa is a fair 3-year-old who has already won twice at this trip from four attempts and arrives in solid form having finished fifth in a stronger race last…
- 6Just Call Me Angel59/100Useful performer who has won twice at this trip and looks well suited by the drop back from a mile.
- 7Machadadorp59/100Fair performer who has already won twice at this trip from three attempts and looks suited by the step back up from 6f.
- 8Lam Yai57/100Useful performer who has shown a solid level of consistency with form figures of 14321.
- 9Oolong Poobong54/100Oolong Poobong is a fair performer who has shown mixed form this year with a pair of fifths from his last two starts.
- 10Figjam54/100Figjam is a useful performer on his best days but has been hit and miss this season with a string of ordinary efforts.
- 11Tryst53/100Useful performer who has won twice at this trip from three attempts and arrives in decent form having landed two of his last three starts.
- 12Secret History52/100Secret History is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record of 11413 that includes two wins at today's 7f trip.
- 13Caim51/100Caim is a fair 3-year-old who showed useful form when winning at this trip on debut before finishing fourth in a stronger race over 1m last time.
- 14Starlight Lass51/100Starlight Lass has shown fair ability in three runs this year, winning twice and finishing second once.
- 15Cotai Belle47/100Cotai Belle is a fair filly who has been consistent this year, finishing second in four of her last five starts including over C&D.
- 16Zooella46/100Zooella is a fair filly who has won her last two starts and arrives in solid form after a consistent 234-11 sequence.
- 17Starfinch45/100Starfinch is a fair performer who has shown some ability in stronger company, finishing third last time out after a win earlier this season.
- 18Carnival Of Light44/100Carnival Of Light has won both starts at this trip and looks fairly treated on recent ratings after two quick wins.
- 19Beaujolais Nouveau42/100Beaujolais Nouveau is a fair performer who has run creditably on this track once without placing.
- 20Woohoo41/100Woohoo is a fair performer who has been consistently placed in recent starts without winning.
- 21Perfect Part41/100Fair performer who has never won at this trip in seven attempts and looks exposed at this level.
The contenders
Bella Lyra KTB Fit 68/100
Bella Lyra is a useful performer who has shown steady placed form at this trip without winning. She comes here in reasonable heart after a solid second last time and handles good ground well with a win and a place from just two tries. The 3-year-old is drawn in stall 19 and will race prominently, usually handily on or close to the lead. Trainer Richard Hughes has a 19% strike rate at York with an A/E of 1.45 from 36 runs while jockey Finley Marsh posts a 25% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.59 from 8 rides. The combination of recent form, going preference and above-average York connections makes her the KTB Selection.
Bellarchi KTB Fit 67/100
Bellarchi is a useful performer with a solid strike-rate on good ground and seven wins at this trip from 22 starts. Dropping in class from a mile, she has shown placed form over course and distance without winning from five runs here. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she has seven wins from 15 starts on good with ten places. Trainer Grant Tuer has an 8% strike rate at York from 118 runs with an A/E of 0.99 while jockey Pierre-Louis Jamin posts a 10% strike rate from 39 rides at the track with an A/E of 1.1. The strong pace expected should suit her style.
Royal Velvet KTB Fit 63/100
Royal Velvet is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track. Recent form has been patchy but the York record reads well with one win from two starts and the trainer has a solid 12% strike rate here from 65 runs with an A/E of 1.21. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she has two wins from eight starts on good with two places. Jockey Conor Whiteley is still seeking a first course winner from only eight rides at York. Dropping in class, she has the profile to bounce back on a track she clearly handles.
Mubasimah KTB Fit 63/100
Mubasimah is a useful performer who has been a bit in and out this year, showing her best when runner-up on reappearance before two lesser efforts. Dropping back to 7f looks a positive as she has already won at the trip, though the wide draw in stall 17 adds a complication. She tends to make the running or race on the pace and has been placed once from three starts on good without winning. Trainer Andrew Balding has a 14% strike rate at York from 502 runs with an A/E of 1.06 while jockey P J McDonald posts a 10% strike rate from 475 rides at the track with an A/E of 1.07. The front-running style could see her set the early fractions in a race with a strong pace likely.
Albaydaa KTB Fit 60/100
Albaydaa is a fair 3-year-old who has already won twice at this trip from four attempts and arrives in solid form having finished fifth in a stronger race last time. Dropping in class, she is usually held up and produces her effort late. The yard has an 18% strike rate at York from 768 runs with an A/E of 1.01 while jockey Tom Marquand posts a 14% strike rate from 325 rides at the track with an A/E of 1.01. With only seven career runs the going remains an unknown though she has been placed twice from two starts on good. The combination of trainer and jockey records at the venue adds to her claims.
The rest of the field
Just Call Me AngelKTB Fit 59/100
Just Call Me Angel is a useful performer who has won twice at this trip and looks well suited by the drop back from a mile. Three wins from five starts on good give solid confidence in the conditions while the first-time headgear is an interesting addition. Trainer operates at only 8% strike rate here from 244 runs with an A/E of 0.64 and the wide draw in stall 16 adds another negative.
MachadadorpKTB Fit 59/100
Machadadorp is a fair performer who has already won twice at this trip from three attempts and looks suited by the step back up from 6f. He has shown his best form on good ground with one win from two starts and holds solid course connections through his trainer and jockey. Recent form of 61126 suggests he remains competitive at this level though he will need to improve again from stall 9.
Lam YaiKTB Fit 57/100
Lam Yai is a useful performer who has shown a solid level of consistency with form figures of 14321. Drawn in stall 1 at York and steps up to 7f for the first time today which asks a fresh question. Trainer has a 9% strike rate from 658 runs here while jockey records an 11% strike rate from 222 rides.
Oolong PoobongKTB Fit 54/100
Oolong Poobong is a fair performer who has shown mixed form this year with a pair of fifths from his last two starts. He drops back to 7f having won at the trip before and acts on good ground with a solid 1-4 record. First-time headgear is now fitted while both trainer and jockey have modest records at York.
FigjamKTB Fit 54/100
Figjam is a useful performer on his best days but has been hit and miss this season with a string of ordinary efforts. He has already tried 7f three times without success and steps up in trip again today from a wide draw which asks a fresh question. The yard has a modest record at York while the jockey is operating at a strong strike rate here.
TrystKTB Fit 53/100
Tryst is a useful performer who has won twice at this trip from three attempts and arrives in decent form having landed two of his last three starts. First time headgear is now applied after a mixed bag of results earlier in the campaign. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at York.
Secret HistoryKTB Fit 52/100
Secret History is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record of 11413 that includes two wins at today's 7f trip. He has already placed on this track and steps up from 6f today, which looks a fair question given he is 2-4 at the distance. Trainer Ed Walker has a 10% strike rate from 166 runs at York while jockey Edward Greatrex is 8% from 26 rides here, and first-time headgear is now added.
CaimKTB Fit 51/100
Caim is a fair 3-year-old who showed useful form when winning at this trip on debut before finishing fourth in a stronger race over 1m last time. He drops back to 7f today which looks a sensible move given his earlier success at the distance. The yard and jockey both have solid if unspectacular records at York.
Starlight LassKTB Fit 51/100
Starlight Lass has shown fair ability in three runs this year, winning twice and finishing second once. She drops back to 7f having been placed without winning at the trip before, while the yard continue in solid form at York with a 21% strike rate. The jockey has a more modest 7% record here from 58 rides and the small amount of form leaves her open to improvement or regression.
Cotai BelleKTB Fit 47/100
Cotai Belle is a fair filly who has been consistent this year, finishing second in four of her last five starts including over C&D. She acts on good ground and has placed here before, though her overall course record shows no win from two runs. The step up to 7f is an unknown and both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates at York.
ZooellaKTB Fit 46/100
Zooella is a fair filly who has won her last two starts and arrives in solid form after a consistent 234-11 sequence. She steps up to 7f for the first time today having failed to place on her only previous try at the trip, which asks a fresh question of her. The trainer holds a 14% strike rate at York from 339 runs while the jockey is operating at 10% from 518 rides here.
StarfinchKTB Fit 45/100
Starfinch is a fair performer who has shown some ability in stronger company, finishing third last time out after a win earlier this season. He has been tried three times at this trip without success and is drawn wide in stall 20 which adds to the challenge. The trainer has an 11% strike rate from 35 runs at York while the jockey is operating at a 3% strike rate from 33 rides here.
Carnival Of LightKTB Fit 44/100
Carnival Of Light has won both starts at this trip and looks fairly treated on recent ratings after two quick wins. The yard and jockey both show modest strike rates at York and the wide draw in stall 18 is far from ideal. Class read is only fair and the small overall sample means there are still questions to answer.
Beaujolais NouveauKTB Fit 42/100
Beaujolais Nouveau is a fair performer who has run creditably on this track once without placing. He has shown ability at today's trip but steps up from 6f today while wearing headgear for the first time. The yard and jockey both have modest strike rates at York and his recent form has been patchy.
WoohooKTB Fit 41/100
Woohoo is a fair performer who has been consistently placed in recent starts without winning. He has shown ability on good ground but was well beaten on his only previous run at York. The step up to 7f is an unknown and the yard and jockey both have modest records at the track.
Perfect PartKTB Fit 41/100
Perfect Part is a fair performer who has never won at this trip in seven attempts and looks exposed at this level. Has shown some competitiveness on good ground but his three runs here have produced no win or place. First-time headgear is now fitted while both trainer and jockey have modest records at York.
KTB verdict
Bella Lyra is the KTB Selection. A useful performer with steady placed form at this trip, she arrives in reasonable heart after a solid second last time and has the right run style for a race with a strong pace likely to collapse late. She handles good ground and is backed by above-average strike rates for both trainer and jockey at York. The main dangers are Bellarchi, who drops in class with a strong record on good and a hold-up style that should be favoured, and Royal Velvet, who has won over course and distance and can bounce back from patchy recent form.
KTB Selection Bella Lyra
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:05 UTC, 20 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Bellarchi | 22/1 | BoyleSports |
| Albaydaa | 5/1 | BetTom |
| Oolong Poobong | 14/1 | BoyleSports |
| Secret History | 10/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 5:20 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which runners are likely to set or contest the early pace?
Mubasimah, Tryst and Starlight Lass tend to make the running or race on the pace, while Bella Lyra usually races prominently and handily. Caim is also inclined to race handily.
Why does the pace shape favour hold-up horses?
The pace shape is strong with two or more habitual front-runners present, meaning the early fractions could prove testing and the race could collapse late.
Which horses are dropping in class for this race?
Bellarchi, Royal Velvet, Albaydaa, Lam Yai, Cotai Belle, Zooella, Starlight Lass and several others including Machadadorp, Tryst, Secret History and Caim are dropping in class.
Which trainers have the strongest strike rates at York in this field?
John & Thady Gosden have a 21% strike rate at York, William Haggas 18%, Richard Hughes 19% and Andrew Balding 14%. Ralph Beckett also has 14% from 339 runs.
How many runners are wearing headgear for the first time?
Just Call Me Angel, Oolong Poobong, Tryst, Secret History, Beaujolais Nouveau and Perfect Part are all wearing first-time headgear.
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