4:47 Naas
This Median Sires Series event for two-year-olds over 5f 205y at Naas on good ground features a field of twelve with plenty of unknowns given the lightly raced nature of many runners. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Weekend Roar on 63, just ahead of Alpe d'Huez on 61, with South Dakota, Livenka and Star Prospect completing the principals. Trainer strike rates at the track vary markedly, from Hugo Palmer's small-sample 33% to more substantial figures for the major yards, while the official ratings and recent form suggest a race where progression and suitability to the trip will be key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for those coming from off the pace to reel in. Alpe d'Huez is the only confirmed front-runner and looks set to dictate matters from draw four, while the remainder of the field are predominantly held-up types who will be aiming to produce their efforts late. This setup poses the key question of whether any closer can bridge the gap to a clear leader on good ground, or if the uncontested pace advantage will prove decisive.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Weekend Roar KTB Selection63/100Weekend Roar has shown fair ability in two starts, finishing third then winning over today's trip.
- 2Alpe d'Huez61/100Alpe d'Huez has shown fair ability with a win and a second from three starts, including success at this trip.
- 3South Dakota57/100Useful colt who has shown consistent form in three starts, finishing no worse than fourth.
- 4Livenka54/100Livenka has shown steady progression in three runs, finishing third on both her latest starts including over this trip.
- 5Star Prospect53/100Useful performer who showed promise when third on debut here before landing a Curragh maiden.
- 6Anglesea Bridge49/100Anglesea Bridge has shown little in two starts to date, finishing fifth then a remote 14th on this track.
- 7El Domino46/100El Domino showed only modest early promise when sixth on debut over 6½f.
- 8Starlit44/100Starlit is a debutant so the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and connections.
- 9Ranting Duke43/100Lightly raced with only three starts and a recent form line of 5D7 that offers little to go on.
- 10Maeda Matsu43/100Maeda Matsu is a newcomer whose assessment rests entirely on pedigree, sales background and the yard's record.
- 11Lily Bear40/100Lily Bear has shown little in two starts so far, finishing seventh then last.
- 12Eighteenth Smiles37/100Modest performer who has shown very little in five starts and now drops back to 5f in first-time headgear.
The contenders
Weekend Roar KTB Fit 63/100
Weekend Roar has shown fair ability in two starts, finishing third then winning over today's trip. The small sample means the form must be treated with caution and there is not enough evidence yet to judge how he handles the track or the ground. Hugo Palmer has a 33% strike rate at Naas from a small sample of three runs with an A/E of 2.75, though W J Lee has a 7% strike rate at the course from 688 rides with an A/E of 0.63. The colt is usually held up and produces its effort late according to the limited evidence available. He has been placed once from one run on good ground without winning, and steps out from draw six.
Alpe d'Huez KTB Fit 61/100
Alpe d'Huez has shown fair ability with a win and a second from three starts, including success at this trip. The first-time headgear is an unknown but the yard's 11% strike rate at Naas from nine runs offers some encouragement. Lightly raced with only three runs total, so still some questions to answer. Archie Watson and Gary Carroll combine with a 13% strike rate from eight runs together. The colt tends to make the running or race on the pace and is set to enjoy the uncontested lead according to the race shape. He has no experience on good ground and no course form on record.
South Dakota KTB Fit 57/100
South Dakota is a useful colt who has shown consistent form in three starts, finishing no worse than fourth. Dropping back from a mile to 5f asks a fresh question while the lightly-raced profile leaves going preferences unclear. Aidan O'Brien has a strong 22% strike rate at Naas from 1426 runs with an A/E of 0.96, and Wayne Lordan has a 10% strike rate at the track from 733 rides with an A/E of 0.82. The pair have a 15% strike rate together from 1462 runs with an A/E of 0.83. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he has two runs on good without placing and steps out from draw nine.
Livenka KTB Fit 54/100
Livenka has shown steady progression in three runs, finishing third on both her latest starts including over this trip. She has already won on good ground and at this distance, though her sole course run at Naas produced only a modest third. The yard's 16% strike rate at the track from 768 runs with an A/E of 0.96 gives some encouragement. Colin Keane has a 17% strike rate at Naas from 752 rides with an A/E of 0.95, and the pair have a 20% strike rate together from 3499 runs with an A/E of 0.93. Usually held up and producing its effort late, she steps out from draw two.
Star Prospect KTB Fit 53/100
Star Prospect is a useful performer who showed promise when third on debut here before landing a Curragh maiden. Has run creditably in two subsequent starts but is now stepping up in trip for the first time, which asks a fresh question. Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 12% strike rate at Naas from 637 runs with an A/E of 0.82, and Dylan Browne McMonagle has a 14% strike rate at the track from 223 rides with an A/E of 0.94. The pair have a 19% strike rate together from 1631 runs with an A/E of 0.91. Usually held up according to the limited evidence, he has one run on good without placing and finished third on his sole previous visit to the course.
The rest of the field
Anglesea BridgeKTB Fit 49/100
Anglesea Bridge has shown little in two starts to date, finishing fifth then a remote 14th on this track. The yard has a solid 16% strike rate at Naas from a big sample. Trip looks suitable on paper yet the small sample and wide draw make this a cautious read at this stage.
El DominoKTB Fit 46/100
El Domino showed only modest early promise when sixth on debut over 6½f. He now drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question of him. The yard's modest 6% strike rate at Naas from a large sample adds little confidence on this lightly-raced run.
StarlitKTB Fit 44/100
Starlit is a debutant so the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and connections. The yard has a modest 9% strike rate at Naas from a large sample of 1132 runs. Shane Foley takes the ride on what is otherwise an unknown quantity at this stage.
Ranting DukeKTB Fit 43/100
Ranting Duke is lightly raced with only three starts and a recent form line of 5D7 that offers little to go on. Drops back from a mile to 5f where he has already placed once, though the first-time headgear adds another unknown. Trainer holds an 8% strike rate at Naas from 24 runs while the horse finished seventh on his only previous visit here.
Maeda MatsuKTB Fit 43/100
Maeda Matsu is a newcomer whose assessment rests entirely on pedigree, sales background and the yard's record. The trainer has a modest 5% strike rate from 188 runs at Naas. With low data confidence and a first-time runner, little else can be said with any certainty.
Lily BearKTB Fit 40/100
Lily Bear has shown little in two starts so far, finishing seventh then last. The drop back from 7½f to 5f asks a fresh question of her. Trainer at Naas has a modest 2% strike rate from 130 runs.
Eighteenth SmilesKTB Fit 37/100
Eighteenth Smiles is a modest performer who has shown very little in five starts and now drops back to 5f in first-time headgear. Has twice failed to land a blow at this trip and the recent form figures tell their own story. Trainer continues to have a solid record at Naas but this one looks limited on what he has shown so far.
KTB verdict
Weekend Roar is the KTB Selection. He has already shown fair ability by winning over this trip on his second start, and the small sample of his form leaves scope for further progress. The trainer's positive small-sample record at Naas adds to the appeal of a colt who should be suited by the way the race is likely to unfold given his late run-style. Main dangers are headed by Alpe d'Huez, who is expected to make the running and could prove hard to peg back if the uncontested lead materialises, along with the consistent South Dakota from the powerful Aidan O'Brien yard and the progressive Livenka.
KTB Selection Weekend Roar
This is the narrative read of the 4:47 Naas. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Naas racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Alpe d'Huez is the only confirmed front-runner and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many runs has Weekend Roar had and what is his best form?
Weekend Roar has had two starts with form figures of 31, winning over today's trip on his latest outing.
What is Aidan O'Brien's strike rate at Naas?
Aidan O'Brien has a 22% strike rate at Naas from 1426 runs with an A/E of 0.96.
Which runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Alpe d'Huez, Ranting Duke and Eighteenth Smiles are all wearing first-time headgear.
What distance is South Dakota dropping back from?
South Dakota is dropping back from a mile to 5f.
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