2:17 Naas
The TRM Ironxcell For Energy Race over 5f 205y at Naas on good ground brings together a compact but competitive field of six. KTB's Fit scores identify Bear On The Run as the clear top pick on 63, ahead of Tolebi on 57, Likedbymike on 53 and Focaccia on 47, with the remainder closely bunched behind. The race features a mix of lightly raced types and more exposed performers, with the KTB numbers underlining the yard of Daniel James Murphy's respectable record at the venue.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to one clear front-runner facing little pressure. Bear On The Run is the horse most likely to take up that role from draw 3, given his front-running style. This sets up a potentially uncontested lead that could prove difficult for the held-up runners to bridge in the closing stages. The key question is whether any of the closers, particularly those with course placings, can reel in the leader on this good ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Bear On The Run KTB Selection63/100Fair performer who showed promise when winning a maiden over this trip on debut before finishing fifth in a handicap last time.
- 2Tolebi57/100Fair performer who has been out of form this year with a string of modest efforts.
- 3Likedbymike53/100Useful performer who has been placed three times from five runs at Naas and twice on good ground.
- 4Focaccia47/100Focaccia is a fair 3-year-old with a mixed record this year that includes a win and two placed efforts.
- 5Michael's Well46/100Fair performer who showed useful promise when winning over today's trip on debut and finishing second here over 6f last season.
- 6Port Arthur44/100Lightly raced with just two runs and a placed effort over this trip on his most recent start.
The contenders
Bear On The Run KTB Fit 63/100
Bear On The Run is a fair performer who showed promise when winning a maiden over this trip on debut before finishing fifth in a handicap last time. The yard has a solid 12% strike rate at Naas from 34 runs. Trip looks suitable but the going remains an unknown with only two runs on the board. Shane Foley takes the ride for a trainer-jockey combination that has produced a positive A/E of 1.30 and LSP of +£22.66. From a favourable draw in stall 3 he is expected to make the running or race prominently, which aligns perfectly with the projected uncontested lead. As the KTB selection he holds the strongest Fit score of 63 and brings the most appealing profile.
Tolebi KTB Fit 57/100
Tolebi is a fair performer who has been out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He drops back sharply from a mile to this trip where he has placed twice in four runs without winning, while he has also shown he can be competitive on good ground. The trainer has a solid 12% strike rate at Naas from a decent-sized sample of 98 runs. Danny O'Leary claims 10lb, though the jockey has no record at the track. Run-style is held up, which may prove a disadvantage given the projected lone leader and lack of pace pressure. With a KTB Fit of 57 he is the second-highest rated but needs to rediscover his best form.
Likedbymike KTB Fit 53/100
Likedbymike is a useful performer who has been placed three times from five runs at Naas and twice on good ground. He has been consistent rather than progressive this year with form figures of 242930 and no win in 20 starts. The trainer remains winless from 41 runs at the track while the jockey has a modest 7% strike rate here from 161 rides. Run-style is held up with high confidence, meaning he will be produced late. Course form reads 10th, 3rd, 4th, 2nd, 3rd, showing clear placed ability without a victory. KTB rates him 53 on Fit and he remains competitive on his best days at this venue.
Focaccia KTB Fit 47/100
Focaccia is a fair 3-year-old with a mixed record this year that includes a win and two placed efforts. He has already shown he handles this trip and has won on good ground from two runs, recording one placed effort. The trainer maintains a solid 12% strike rate here from a big sample of 171 runs and the jockey has a 12% strike rate at Naas from 208 rides. His only run at the course resulted in an 8th-place finish. Run-style is held up with high confidence, which could leave him with plenty to do if the leader is allowed an easy time. KTB awards a Fit score of 47.
The rest of the field
Michael's WellKTB Fit 46/100
Michael's Well is a fair performer who showed useful promise when winning over today's trip on debut and finishing second here over 6f last season. He has failed to build on that in two starts this year though and looks vulnerable from a poor draw. The trainer has a solid 9% strike-rate at Naas from 69 runs.
Port ArthurKTB Fit 44/100
Port Arthur is lightly raced with just two runs and a placed effort over this trip on his most recent start. He showed some ability when third here at Naas last time but the yard's poor 2% strike-rate at the track is a clear negative. Data confidence is low so treat the form with caution.
KTB verdict
Bear On The Run stands out as the KTB selection. A fair performer who won a maiden over this trip on debut and showed further promise when fifth in a handicap last time, he has the run-style to take the uncontested lead in a race where the pace shape strongly favours the front-runner. The yard's 12% strike rate at Naas from 34 runs adds further confidence, and the trip is ideal. Main dangers are likely to come from Likedbymike, who has a strong course record of three placings from five starts at Naas, and Tolebi, who drops in trip and has shown he can be competitive on good ground. Focaccia cannot be entirely dismissed on his best efforts either.
KTB Selection Bear On The Run
This is the narrative read of the 2:17 Naas. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Naas racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Bear On The Run, whose front-running style and draw 3 align with the lone-leader pace shape.
How many times has Likedbymike been placed at Naas?
Three times from five runs.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Naas for the yard of Bear On The Run?
12% from 34 runs with an A/E of 1.42.
On what ground has Tolebi shown he can be competitive?
Good ground, where he is placed once from four runs.
What was Focaccia's sole result at Naas?
Eighth, with no win or place.
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