8:24 Worcester
This Class 5 mares' handicap hurdle over 2m at Worcester on good ground features a field of eight with little to choose between the top three on KTB Fit. Best Night tops the ratings on 70, ahead of Lucy The Wire on 66, while Quick Of The Night and Mistral Milly sit on 56 and 54 respectively. The KTB numbers point to a competitive affair where recent form, first-time headgear and Worcester records will all play their part.
How the race shapes up
The race-level pace shape suggests a truly-run contest with several hold-up types in the field. Best Night and Lucy The Wire are expected to race prominently, while Quick Of The Night tends to come from off the pace. The key question is whether the first-time headgear on the leading principals will help them settle or produce the required extra spark in what looks an even pace set-up.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Best Night KTB Selection70/100Useful performer who arrives in decent nick with three placed efforts from his last four starts including a second over this trip.
- 2Lucy The Wire66/100Useful performer who has already won over this trip and arrives in decent form having placed twice from her last three starts.
- 3Quick Of The Night56/100Fair performer who has won twice here including at this trip.
- 4Mistral Milly54/100Mistral Milly is a useful performer on the balance of her ratings and race history but arrives with a modest recent record of 4/94-6.
- 5Caterpillar Girl50/100Useful mare who has won over this trip and handles good ground.
- 6No Risk Today46/100Fair performer who has not built on early promise and arrives here on the back of three modest efforts.
- 7Jukebox Annie40/100Jukebox Annie is a fair mare who has won twice at this trip but has struggled for consistency lately with form of 66P-4P.
- 8Charlotte Square32/100Limited performer who has failed to complete in three of her last four starts and pulled up on both previous visits to Worcester.
The contenders
Best Night KTB Fit 70/100
Best Night is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick with three placed efforts from his last four starts including a second over this trip. He has won on good ground and at today's distance but makes his first visit to Worcester where the yard's 14% strike rate from 529 runs is solid rather than spectacular. First-time headgear is now applied with the 5 lb claiming jockey holding a strong 27% strike rate from his 11 rides here. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 20/71 record with an A/E of 1.46 and LSP of +£35.93. Recent form reads 26-523 and the official figures support his place at the top of this field. Connections will hope the new headgear helps him put his best foot forward on this first run at the track.
Lucy The Wire KTB Fit 66/100
Lucy The Wire is a useful performer who has already won over this trip and arrives in decent form having placed twice from her last three starts. First-time headgear is now fitted and the yard has a solid 19% strike rate at Worcester. Jockey Sean Bowen is even stronger here with a 22% record from over 400 rides. The trainer and jockey partnership records 37/117 with an A/E of 1.01. She has been placed on all three starts on good ground without winning and her recent form is 1242-8. At four years old she retains scope and the headgear could sharpen her up further in a race where her prominent style should be an asset.
Quick Of The Night KTB Fit 56/100
Quick Of The Night is a fair performer who has won twice here including at this trip. His recent placed effort was respectable and the figures suggest he remains competitive in this grade. Trainer Dave Roberts has a modest 8% strike-rate at the track from a decent-sized sample while jockey Lee Edwards also has a modest record here. The trainer and jockey show 27/386 with an A/E of 0.85. He has two wins from 16 starts on good ground with four places and his course record stands at two from eight. Recent form of 4365-3 keeps him firmly in the mix on his return to the track where he has previously shown his best.
Mistral Milly KTB Fit 54/100
Mistral Milly is a useful performer on the balance of her ratings and race history but arrives with a modest recent record of 4/94-6. She drops back to 2m having failed to win or place in four previous attempts at the trip and has also shown no win or place from four runs on good ground. The yard records a 9% strike rate at Worcester from 67 runs while first-time headgear is now applied. Trainer and jockey combine for 14/159 with an A/E of 0.80. At seven she has experience on her side yet the lack of form at this distance and on the ground leaves her with questions to answer despite the KTB Fit of 54.
The rest of the field
Caterpillar GirlKTB Fit 50/100
Caterpillar Girl is a useful mare who has won over this trip and handles good ground. Her Worcester record is modest with three runs yielding no win or place and recent form has been patchy. First-time headgear is an unknown on what looks like a stiff task at this level.
No Risk TodayKTB Fit 46/100
No Risk Today is a fair performer who has not built on early promise and arrives here on the back of three modest efforts. He drops back to 2m for the first time in a while having failed to trouble the judge at that trip previously while the first-time headgear is another unknown. The trainer has a solid 15% strike rate at Worcester from a large sample.
Jukebox AnnieKTB Fit 40/100
Jukebox Annie is a fair mare who has won twice at this trip but has struggled for consistency lately with form of 66P-4P. She has been well beaten on her only previous run here and shows no wins from six runs on good ground. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from eight runs at Worcester.
Charlotte SquareKTB Fit 32/100
Charlotte Square is a limited performer who has failed to complete in three of her last four starts and pulled up on both previous visits to Worcester. She has shown nothing on good ground over this trip either. Too much to overcome on the balance of what she has produced so far.
KTB verdict
Best Night is the KTB Selection and arrives with the strongest recent placed form including a second over the trip. The application of first-time headgear allied to the claiming jockey's excellent Worcester record gives him every chance to capitalise on his 70 Fit rating. Lucy The Wire is the obvious danger with similar profile and strong jockey figures at the track, while Quick Of The Night's course record cannot be ignored. Mistral Milly may improve for the headgear but has plenty to prove at this trip and on the ground.
KTB Selection Best Night
This is the narrative read of the 8:24 Worcester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Worcester racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its first appearance at Worcester?
Best Night makes his first visit to Worcester where the yard's 14% strike rate from 529 runs is solid rather than spectacular.
How many of the principals are wearing first-time headgear?
Three of the four principals – Best Night, Lucy The Wire and Mistral Milly – are fitted with first-time headgear.
Which horse has the best course record in the field?
Quick Of The Night has won twice here including at this trip with a course record of two from eight.
Who has the strongest jockey record at Worcester among the principals?
Sean Bowen has a 22% strike rate at Worcester from 422 rides when riding Lucy The Wire.
Which runner has the highest trainer strike rate at the track?
James Owen has a 19% strike rate at Worcester from 70 runs when saddling Lucy The Wire.
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