5:08 Kempton (AW)
This Class 5 apprentice handicap at Kempton, a qualifier for the London Stayers' Series, is run over 1m7f218y on standard to slow ground. The eight-runner field features several fair handicappers with solid course form, though the KTB Fit scores suggest a fairly tight contest at the top of the market with the top four all rated between 55 and 63. Overall the numbers point to a race where course experience, trip suitability and how the strong pace unfolds will be key.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up the pace shape is likely to be strong, and the race could collapse late. Rogue Empire and Further Measure are both front-runners who tend to make the running or race prominently, while Fleurman and Saratoga Gold like to race handily. That sets up a test that should favour hold-up horses such as Karthon, Tarbat Ness and Individualiste, with the key question being which of the prominent runners can withstand the early burn and still have something left in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Fleurman KTB Selection63/100Fleurman is a fair handicapper who arrives in solid form after winning at this trip last time out.
- 2Karthon59/100Karthon is a fair handicapper who has shown consistent placed form without winning, including a second here over 2m last year.
- 3Rogue Empire59/100Rogue Empire is a fair handicapper who has run to form on his last two starts and looks competitive again from a handy draw.
- 4Further Measure55/100Further Measure is a fair handicapper who has won twice at this track from seven runs and also has a solid record on standard to slow going with three wins from…
- 5Saratoga Gold54/100Saratoga Gold has been running to a fair standard this winter with three placed efforts from his last five starts and an RPR of 80.
- 6Vilaine Verlaine53/100Vilaine Verlaine has a fair rating and has shown some ability on this track when second here last year.
- 7Tarbat Ness48/100Tarbat Ness is a fair handicapper who has won three times at today's trip from 20 attempts and arrives in reasonable form with an RPR of 78.
- 8Individualiste45/100Individualiste has shown little since returning from a long absence and his recent efforts leave him with a limited rating.
The contenders
Fleurman KTB Fit 63/100
Fleurman is a fair handicapper who arrives in solid form after winning at this trip last time out. He has won here from four runs and handles standard to slow going with a win and two places from five starts. The eight-year-old usually races handily, on or close to the lead, which should see him well placed in a race with a strong pace likely. Trainer Patrick Morris has a 13% strike rate at Kempton from 76 runs with an A/E of 1.09, while jockey Donagh Murphy boasts a 15% strike rate at the track from 13 rides with an A/E of 1.16. Recent form figures of 085135 underline his competitiveness at this level, and with figures of RPR 84 and TS 55 he looks a major player from draw 4.
Karthon KTB Fit 59/100
Karthon is a fair handicapper who has shown consistent placed form without winning, including a second here over 2m last year. He has been competitive on standard to slow ground, with one place from three starts, and ran three times at Kempton for figures of 5th, 6th and 2nd. The four-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late, which could be an advantage given the strong pace anticipated. Trainer Emma Lavelle has an 11% strike rate at the track from 90 runs with an A/E of 1.00, while jockey Mason Paetel is 12% from 25 rides with an A/E of 1.14. Recent form of 3262-5 and figures of RPR 80 and TS 69 from draw 2 mean he must improve on his latest effort but he remains a danger.
Rogue Empire KTB Fit 59/100
Rogue Empire is a fair handicapper who has run to form on his last two starts and looks competitive again from a handy draw. He is 0-3 at this track without winning though has been placed twice here and acts on the standard to slow surface, with two places from three starts. The four-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence, which will put him right in the firing line in a race expected to be strongly run. Trainer Roger Teal has an 8% strike rate at Kempton from 496 runs with an A/E of 0.86 and the jockey-trainer combination shows 3 wins from 32 rides with an A/E of 0.82. Stepping up in class having placed twice at today's trip, his recent form of 336-31 and RPR of 76 keep him firmly in the mix.
Further Measure KTB Fit 55/100
Further Measure is a fair handicapper who has won twice at this track from seven runs and also has a solid record on standard to slow going with three wins from nine starts. He steps up in trip today having last run over 1m3½f yet boasts three wins from eight attempts at this distance so the extra ground looks no hardship. The nine-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace, which will see him to the fore early in what is set to be a strongly run affair. Trainer Mike Murphy has an 8% strike rate at Kempton from 350 runs with an A/E of 0.85, while jockey Alfie Redman has a 14% strike rate from seven rides here with an A/E of 0.84. Recent form of 4-4144 and figures of RPR 80 and TS 71 from draw 5 mean he cannot be dismissed.
The rest of the field
Saratoga GoldKTB Fit 54/100
Saratoga Gold has been running to a fair standard this winter with three placed efforts from his last five starts and an RPR of 80. He has won over this track and gone on standard to slow ground though the trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Kempton from 92 runs is a clear negative and the 3lb claimer is also without a winner from a dozen rides here. Stepping up in trip for the first time asks a fresh question though he has been placed without winning at this distance.
Vilaine VerlaineKTB Fit 53/100
Vilaine Verlaine has a fair rating and has shown some ability on this track when second here last year. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate from 842 runs at Kempton suggests limited success at the venue while the 5lb claimer is still seeking her first winner from six rides. She steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 1m4f and holds an each-way chance if the extra distance suits.
Tarbat NessKTB Fit 48/100
Tarbat Ness is a fair handicapper who has won three times at today's trip from 20 attempts and arrives in reasonable form with an RPR of 78. The seven-year-old has never run at Kempton though and is unproven on standard to slow going. Trainer John Berry has a 3% strike rate here from 93 runs while jockey Taryn Langley is 5% from 20 rides at the track.
IndividualisteKTB Fit 45/100
Individualiste has shown little since returning from a long absence and his recent efforts leave him with a limited rating. He steps up in trip today having failed to make the frame in two previous tries at this distance while the switch to standard to slow ground is another unknown. The trainer has had too few runners here to judge and the jockey is still seeking her first Kempton winner from 20 rides.
KTB verdict
Fleurman stands out as the KTB Selection. He is a fair handicapper in solid form after winning at this trip last time out, boasts a win here from four runs and handles the surface with a win and two places from five starts on standard to slow. The prominent running style should serve him well in a race with a strong pace likely to test those up front, and both trainer and jockey have above-average records at the track. His main dangers are Karthon, who has shown consistent placed form including a second here over 2m, and Rogue Empire, who has run to form on his last two starts and is likely to set the pace. Further Measure cannot be ruled out either given his course wins and proven stamina at the trip.
KTB Selection Fleurman
This is the narrative read of the 5:08 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up markedly in trip from 1m4f?
Vilaine Verlaine is stepping up markedly in trip today having last run over 1m4f.
How many wins has Further Measure recorded at this distance?
Further Measure boasts three wins from eight attempts at this distance.
Which runners are unproven on standard to slow ground?
Tarbat Ness and Individualiste are unproven on standard to slow going with no runs on the surface.
Who has the best trainer strike rate at Kempton among the principals?
Patrick Morris has a 13% strike rate at Kempton from 76 runs for Fleurman.
Which horse has placed twice at today's trip without winning?
Rogue Empire has placed twice at today's trip.
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