7:10 Kempton (AW)
This Class 4 handicap at Kempton over 6f on standard to slow ground forms the first division of the Unibet 40,000+ Live Streamed Events Handicap and also serves as a London Sprint Series qualifier. A field of ten 3-year-olds lines up, with the KTB Fit ratings indicating a competitive event where the top five are closely matched between 59 and 66. The numbers highlight several useful performers with recent wins on all-weather surfaces, though unproven elements on this surface and trip add layers of interest.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is strong with high confidence, featuring two or more habitual front-runners including Arry Up and Angel Of Anfield who tend to make the running or race prominently. Marengo Storm and Angel Love are also prominent runners who will be close to the pace, setting up a test that could see the speed collapse late. This shape is likely to favour hold-up horses such as the selection Jumeirah Sands, The Lost Sock and Moonshine who produce their efforts from off the pace, posing the key question of whether any prominent runners can sustain their efforts or if the closers will dominate late.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Jumeirah Sands KTB Selection66/100Jumeirah Sands is a useful performer who has won both starts this year over today's 6f trip on Southwell's all-weather track.
- 2Marengo Storm64/100Marengo Storm is a useful 3-year-old who has already won over course and distance on standard to slow ground.
- 3Angel Love64/100Useful performer who showed smart form as a 2yo with a wide-margin 6f win and two placed efforts.
- 4The Lost Sock62/100Useful performer who showed smart form when winning a Catterick maiden over 5f last summer but has been expensive to follow in handicaps this year.
- 5Moonshine59/100Moonshine is a useful performer who won over this C&D on her handicap debut in March and has since held her form without progressing.
- 6Arry Up57/100Arry Up is a fair performer who has won two of his three starts over this C&D on standard to slow ground and holds a strong recent record at the trip overall.
- 7Deluded56/100Deluded is a useful performer on his figures with an RPR of 93 and has shown placed form at this 6f trip.
- 8Rogue Supremacy55/100Rogue Supremacy is a fair performer who has shown consistent ability on this surface with an RPR of 89 and Topspeed of 94.
- 9Siren Suit49/100Siren Suit is a fair 3-year-old who won a 7f maiden here on his only previous visit to Kempton and has handled standard to slow going.
- 10Angel Of Anfield49/100Angel Of Anfield is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent ability, winning at 6f and finishing second over C&D on his nursery debut.
The contenders
Jumeirah Sands KTB Fit 66/100
Jumeirah Sands is a useful performer who has won both starts this year over today's 6f trip on Southwell's all-weather track. She has shown sharp early pace in those wins after overcoming slow starts on debut and her RPR of 94 suggests she remains unexposed in handicaps. The yard posts an 11% strike rate at Kempton from 164 runs while the 5lb claimer has a 12% record from 25 rides here. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she could be ideally suited by the strong pace likely to unfold. There are no runs on standard to slow ground so that is unproven, and she has no course form on record. Overall the KTB Fit of 66 marks her out as the one to beat.
Marengo Storm KTB Fit 64/100
Marengo Storm is a useful 3-year-old who has already won over course and distance on standard to slow ground. He showed strong form when landing a C&D maiden last month then ran well to finish second on handicap debut at Windsor, where the third has since won. The yard posts a 13 percent strike rate here from 621 runs while Buick has a solid 22 percent record from 1126 rides at the track. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he will be right up with the strong pace. He has one win from two on standard to slow and has won here from two runs. With an RPR of 93 and KTB Fit of 64 he is a major player.
Angel Love KTB Fit 64/100
Angel Love is a useful performer who showed smart form as a 2yo with a wide-margin 6f win and two placed efforts. She was well below that level when down the field on her handicap debut at Chester five weeks ago though the wide draw did not help. Drawn much better today from stall 2 and the trainer's 15 percent strike rate at this track from 243 runs offers some encouragement. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, she will be involved in the strong pace. She is placed once from one on standard to slow and has been placed once from one run at Kempton. Dropping in class with an RPR of 93 and KTB Fit of 64 she cannot be dismissed.
The Lost Sock KTB Fit 62/100
The Lost Sock is a useful performer who showed smart form when winning a Catterick maiden over 5f last summer but has been expensive to follow in handicaps this year. Steps up to 6f today having failed to place in two previous tries at the trip and was well held on his only previous run at Kempton. Trainer Roger Varian has a solid 21% strike rate here from 749 runs while jockey Callum Rodriguez posts a 19% strike rate from 42 rides at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, the strong pace should suit. He has one run on standard to slow with no win or place and was eighth on his sole Kempton start. The KTB Fit is 62 with an RPR of 93.
Moonshine KTB Fit 59/100
Moonshine is a useful performer who won over this C&D on her handicap debut in March and has since held her form without progressing. Dropping back from 7f to a trip she has won over before looks a sensible move from stall 1. The yard’s modest 13% strike rate at Kempton from a big sample and the jockey’s 10% record here add no particular edge. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she should be suited by the race shape. She has one win from one on standard to slow and has won here from one run. With an RPR of 91 and KTB Fit of 59 she remains a contender.
The rest of the field
Arry UpKTB Fit 57/100
Arry Up is a fair performer who has won two of his three starts over this C&D on standard to slow ground and holds a strong recent record at the trip overall. He has shown his best form here and the figures back up his ability to compete at this level. The yard has a solid 10% strike rate at the track while the jockey is operating at a 4% strike rate from a large sample. Tends to make the running or race on the pace and will be prominent in a race with a strong pace likely.
DeludedKTB Fit 56/100
Deluded is a useful performer on his figures with an RPR of 93 and has shown placed form at this 6f trip. He drops back from 7f today having looked stretched by that distance at Newmarket last time though he did win over 7f on AW last autumn. The yard has an 11% strike rate from 395 runs at Kempton while Paddy Bradley is 6% from 414 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should get a good tow from the strong pace.
Rogue SupremacyKTB Fit 55/100
Rogue Supremacy is a fair performer who has shown consistent ability on this surface with an RPR of 89 and Topspeed of 94. He has placed here once from a single run at Kempton and is competitive on standard to slow going from his one attempt. The yard posts a 15% strike rate at the track from 500 runs while the jockey is operating at 9% from over 3,000 rides here. Usually held up, he drops in class and could benefit if the strong pace collapses.
Siren SuitKTB Fit 49/100
Siren Suit is a fair 3-year-old who won a 7f maiden here on his only previous visit to Kempton and has handled standard to slow going. He showed useful form when third at Ascot on his second start but has been well beaten in both subsequent runs, including when last seen after a seven-month break. Dropping back to 6f for the first time since an unsuccessful run at the trip raises a fresh question while the yard’s 21% strike rate from 357 runs at the track offers some encouragement. Usually held up.
Angel Of AnfieldKTB Fit 49/100
Angel Of Anfield is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent ability, winning at 6f and finishing second over C&D on his nursery debut. He drops back in trip after fading late over 7f at Ascot last month which looks a logical move given his earlier success at this distance. The yard's modest 7% strike rate at Kempton is a negative though Muscutt's 12% record here offers some compensation. Tends to make the running or race on the pace and will be to the fore in a race with a strong pace likely.
KTB verdict
Jumeirah Sands is the KTB Selection. She has won both starts this year over 6f on all-weather, remains unexposed in handicaps according to her RPR of 94, and her hold-up style should be perfectly suited by the strong pace that is likely to materialise. The 5lb claimer and yard's record at the track add to the picture. Main dangers are Marengo Storm, who has already won over C&D on the surface and brings strong recent form, and Angel Love who is much better drawn today after a disappointing handicap debut. The Lost Sock and Moonshine are next in the KTB Fit order and could also feature if the race falls apart late.
KTB Selection Jumeirah Sands
This is the narrative read of the 7:10 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the strong pace shape?
Jumeirah Sands, who is usually held up and produces her effort late with medium confidence.
How many horses have previous winning form over course and distance?
Marengo Storm has won over C&D and Moonshine has won over this C&D.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Kempton on AW?
The Lost Sock, with trainer Roger Varian posting a 21% strike rate at Kempton from 749 runs.
Which front-runners are likely to set the strong pace?
Arry Up tends to make the running or race on the pace, as does Angel Of Anfield.
What is the KTB Fit rating for the selection Jumeirah Sands?
66/100, the highest in the field.
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