5:08 Navan
The 5:08 at Navan is a 17-runner Kilberry (Q.R.) Handicap over 2m on good ground. A competitive field of stayers lines up, with the KTB Fit scores tightly bunched at the top between 63 and 59 for the five principals. The numbers highlight several horses with previous course success or strong placed records at Navan, alongside varied records on good ground and at the trip.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is strong and looks likely to be truly run, with the possibility of the leaders folding late on. Murat is the clear pace influence from a low draw and will take them along, while Rich Belief can also race prominently. This setup should favour the numerous hold-up horses in the field, and the key question is which of the patient runners can time their effort best once the pace collapses in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Sequoiaspirit KTB Selection63/100
Sequoiaspirit is the KTB Selection. This modest performer won on his only previous visit to Navan and now drops back to 2m having been placed at the trip without winning. His record on good ground reads two wins from 19 runs. The nine-year-old is a hold-up horse who usually produces his effort late. Trainer Ray Hackett has a strong 33% strike rate at the track from 18 runs with an A/E of 4.53, though the trainer and jockey combination shows 0/15 (0%) with an A/E of 0.00 and -£15.00 LSP. The jockey has no record at Navan for a neutral score.
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2Whimsy62/100
Whimsy is a fair sort who has been placed on both of his last two starts. He has a solid record around this track with two placed efforts from three runs and acts on good ground, having been placed four times from six starts on it without winning. He has won over today's trip though he is now 0-17 in his last attempts at the distance. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is ridden by a jockey with a 16% strike rate at Navan and an A/E of 1.79 from 19 rides. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate at the track from 91 runs with an A/E of 0.8 is offset by that jockey booking.
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3Timurshah62/100
Timurshah is a modest performer who has won three of his five starts at this trip and looks well suited by the drop back to 2m. He is 4-7 on good ground with four further placed efforts. The yard have an above-average record at Navan with a 14% strike rate and A/E of 1.73 from seven runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is ridden by a jockey with a 19% strike rate at Navan and an A/E of 1.06 from 47 rides. The five-year-old has never run at the track before.
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4Murat60/100
Murat is a fair performer who arrives in solid form having won two of his last four starts. He has a good record on good ground with one win from two starts and two placed efforts. He has won three times at this trip from five attempts though he drops back in distance today. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he represents a trainer with a 0% strike rate at Navan from five runs and an A/E of 0. The jockey has a solid 28% strike rate here from 25 rides with an A/E of 1.09.
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5Jerandme59/100
Jerandme is a modest 12-year-old who has won four times on good ground from 12 starts and has also won at this trip. He drops back from 2m3½f after a string of modest efforts that ended with a poor showing last time. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is trained by a yard with a 9% strike rate at Navan from 43 runs and an A/E of 1.01. The jockey has no recorded rides at the track for a neutral score.
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6The Mediator56/100
The Mediator is a fair handicapper who has shown consistent placed form this season but failed to build on it last time. He has run twice at Navan without winning or placing and steps up in trip today having won twice over this distance in the past. Gordon Elliott has a solid 16% strike rate at the track from 1454 runs while the 7lb claimer has no recorded rides here.
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7Not Just Any Eagle52/100
Not Just Any Eagle is a fair performer who has run well at this track once before when second. He steps up in trip today having been placed without winning at 2m previously. The trainer has a solid 9% strike rate here from 308 runs while the jockey is still seeking a first course winner from nine rides.
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8Day Trader51/100
Day Trader is a modest performer who has shown little spark in five runs this year and is drawn wide in stall 15. He steps up to 2m for the first time in a while having won at the trip earlier in his career. The trainer holds a 9% strike rate at Navan from 641 runs while the jockey is 8% from 38 rides here.
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9Cala Gracioneta48/100
Cala Gracioneta is a limited performer who has shown some ability on this track, finishing second here on one of three visits. She steps up in trip to 2m for the first time in a while having been placed at the distance without winning, and she has gone well on good ground in the past. The trainer holds a modest record at Navan while the jockey is also operating at a low strike rate here.
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10Friary Road46/100
Friary Road is a modest performer with a solid record at this trip having won three of six starts. He has won here from two runs and showed good placed efforts on his last two starts over slightly shorter. The trainer has a respectable 13% strike rate at Navan while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge.
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11Rich Belief45/100
Rich Belief is a modest performer with a solid course record here at Navan where he has won one from six starts. He drops back to his winning trip today after a recent run over further and has shown enough placed efforts on good ground to suggest the conditions will suit. The trainer has a poor 0% strike rate from 50 runs at the track while the jockey has an 8% record from 12 rides.
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12Black Heather45/100
Black Heather is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this season with a third and two respectable fourths from his last four starts. He has course experience here at Navan but could only manage sixth on his sole visit. Dropping back to 2m looks a positive as he has won twice at the trip from eight attempts, though he remains winless on good ground from six starts. The trainer holds a modest 9% strike rate from a large sample at the track.
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13Slowdownbarney43/100
Slowdownbarney is a limited horse who has failed to win in 28 starts and arrives in modest form. He drops back to a trip at which he has placed once but has never shown any spark on good ground. The trainer's modest 4% strike-rate at Navan adds little encouragement.
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14Miss Gitana40/100
Miss Gitana is a modest performer who has been on the go a long time and showed her best effort this year when third at Down Royal last month. She has run four times at Navan without placing and the trainer's modest 6% strike-rate here adds little confidence. She stays this trip and has scored on good ground.
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15Jurality40/100
Jurality is a modest performer who won over C&D on his only previous visit to Navan. He has been in and out of form this year and steps up in trip today having been placed once in five runs at this distance. The trainer has a modest record here while the jockey is still seeking her first Navan winner from 13 rides.
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16Young Churchill37/100
Young Churchill is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and finished no better than fifth in two runs at this track. He steps up in trip today having won once over this distance in the past, though his record on good ground is only modest. The trainer has a poor 2% strike-rate here from 50 runs while the jockey has an 11% record from a small sample.
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17Liberated Light36/100
Liberated Light is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time and showed little spark on his most recent starts. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 1m4½f, though he has won twice at 2m in the past. The trainer is 0% from five runs at Navan while the jockey records a modest 6% strike rate here from 17 rides.
KTB verdict
Sequoiaspirit is the KTB Selection. He won on his only previous visit to Navan and drops back to 2m today having been placed at the trip without winning, with a solid record on good ground. The strong pace should play to his strengths as a hold-up horse, and the trainer's excellent record at the track adds plenty of encouragement. His main dangers are Whimsy, who has a good placed record around Navan and is ridden by a jockey in strong form here, and Timurshah, who has won three times at the trip and is suited by the drop back in distance on good ground.
KTB Selection Sequoiaspirit
This is the narrative read of the 5:08 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the only one with a previous win at Navan over this C&D?
Sequoiaspirit won here on his only previous visit to Navan.
How many front-runners are there and what does that mean for the race?
There are two or more habitual front-runners and the pace shape is strong with high confidence, which could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Navan among the principals?
Ray Hackett has a 33% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 4.53 from 18 runs.
Which jockey has the best Navan record among those riding the top five in the KTB Fit rankings?
Miss A B O'Connor has a 16% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.79 from 19 rides.
Which horse is dropping back from 2m3½f?
Jerandme drops back from 2m3½f after a string of modest efforts.
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