5:10 Leopardstown
This 17-runner Boyle Sports Money Back If 2nd To SP Fav Handicap over 7f45y at Leopardstown on good ground features a field of largely modest performers where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. Navagio tops the rankings on 58 with Loingseoir, Faoladh, Buttermere Ridge and Perfect Base completing the principals, though several others sit close behind on ratings in the high 40s and low 40s. The KTB numbers highlight course placings and good-ground competence for a number of runners while underlining modest trainer and jockey records at the track for most of the field.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a race that should be run at an even gallop with a handful of prominent runners likely to take an early position. Navagio from draw 6 and Goal Exceeded are among those who can race handily, while several others including Loingseoir from stall 15 and Faoladh from 14 may settle in mid-division or come from further back. The key question is whether the prominent types can dictate matters or if the race will be won by something coming from off the pace in a field where many have shown their best when not too far off the lead.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Navagio KTB Selection58/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts.
- 2Loingseoir55/100Modest performer who has been consistent around here without winning, finishing placed on three of his four visits to Leopardstown.
- 3Faoladh53/100Modest performer who has won once from six starts at Leopardstown and also has a win at this trip from two attempts.
- 4Buttermere Ridge52/100Modest performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts.
- 5Perfect Base51/100Modest performer who has shown some ability at this trip, finishing placed on two of four attempts.
- 6Send Harry48/100Modest performer who has won once over this trip from five attempts but has shown little spark on his last two starts.
- 7Phoenix Pairc48/100Modest performer who has won once over today's trip from three attempts.
- 8Apache Outlaw47/100Apache Outlaw is a modest performer with a lengthy career and recent form that has been largely uncompetitive.
- 9Ardeur47/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form since a placed effort on AW early last year.
- 10Reposado43/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning, finishing second three times from his last six starts.
- 11Free Solo42/100Modest performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts.
- 12Goal Exceeded42/100Modest performer who has shown bits of form this year but has been below par on his last two starts.
- 13Irish Rumour40/100Modest performer who has shown some spark on his last two starts but remains winless in 30 career runs.
- 14Hexagonal39/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a recent string of modest efforts.
- 15Caffu Zafeen38/100Modest performer who has been out of form for some time and was well beaten on his most recent start over 5f.
- 16Eichan San38/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts.
- 17Mickey The Steel36/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning.
The contenders
Navagio KTB Fit 58/100
Navagio is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts. He has placed here once from three runs at Leopardstown and goes well enough on good ground, though he has been competitive without winning on that surface. The jockey is still seeking a first winner at the track from 54 rides and the trainer-jockey combination is 0-9, yet the yard has a 10% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 1.5. Dropping back to a trip he has won over is the main positive for this 7-year-old who is the KTB selection.
Loingseoir KTB Fit 55/100
Loingseoir is a modest performer who has been consistent around here without winning, finishing placed on three of his four visits to Leopardstown. He has a win on good ground from six starts and has scored at this trip in the past though his recent form has been ordinary. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.97 while the jockey is 10% with an A/E of 0.92, and their combination reads 4-44 with a positive A/E of 1.45. This 10-year-old from draw 15 brings placed course form and a solid enough record at the venue.
Faoladh KTB Fit 53/100
Faoladh is a modest performer who has won once from six starts at Leopardstown and also has a win at this trip from two attempts. He arrives in form after a recent success and acts on good ground having won twice from seven starts on it. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate here from 190 runs is a negative while the claiming jockey remains winless from six rides at the track, and their combination is 3-55 with a negative A/E. This 4-year-old has course-winning form and recent progress to his name.
Buttermere Ridge KTB Fit 52/100
Buttermere Ridge is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. He drops back sharply in trip from 2m to a distance at which he has won in the past though he has looked limited on his three runs on good ground. First-time headgear is reached for while the trainer has a 6% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.81 and the jockey is 5% with an A/E of 0.64, their combination reading 2-14 with a positive A/E. This 5-year-old makes his course debut from a low draw.
Perfect Base KTB Fit 51/100
Perfect Base is a modest performer who has shown some ability at this trip, finishing placed on two of four attempts. First-time headgear is now applied after a string of ordinary efforts including a disappointing run when last seen. The trainer has a modest 4% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.33 while the jockey has a fair 9% strike rate with an A/E of 1.1, and their combination is 4-15 with a strong A/E of 2.56. This 2-year-old is competitive on good ground without having won on it and makes his first start at the track.
The rest of the field
Send HarryKTB Fit 48/100
Send Harry is a modest performer who has won once over this trip from five attempts but has shown little spark on his last two starts. He has been placed twice from five runs on good ground so the surface is no problem though he has never won on it, while the trainer and jockey both have a 0% strike rate at Leopardstown.
Phoenix PaircKTB Fit 48/100
Phoenix Pairc is a modest performer who has won once over today's trip from three attempts. He has not shown much spark since early season and was well held on good ground last time out, with the trainer and jockey both having below-average records at Leopardstown.
Apache OutlawKTB Fit 47/100
Apache Outlaw is a modest performer with a lengthy career and recent form that has been largely uncompetitive. He steps up in trip today having won twice at this distance in the past though his record on good ground is ordinary at best, while the yard and jockey both have modest records at Leopardstown and he faces a stiff task from stall 11.
ArdeurKTB Fit 47/100
Ardeur is a modest performer who has been largely out of form since a placed effort on AW early last year. He drops back from a mile to a trip he has tried only once before while making his first start at Leopardstown, with the trainer and jockey both having modest records at the track.
ReposadoKTB Fit 43/100
Reposado is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning, finishing second three times from his last six starts. He steps up from 5f to 7f for the first time in a while having failed to land a blow in three previous tries at the trip, while the trainer is 0-5 at Leopardstown and the jockey has a modest 4% strike rate from 145 rides here.
Free SoloKTB Fit 42/100
Free Solo is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. He has run well here in the past including a second on his most recent visit to Leopardstown but that was back in 2022, with the trainer and jockey both having modest records at the track.
Goal ExceededKTB Fit 42/100
Goal Exceeded is a modest performer who has shown bits of form this year but has been below par on his last two starts. He has placed here once from a single run at Leopardstown and has won over today's trip though his overall strike rate is modest, while the trainer's modest record at the track and the jockey's similar figures add little encouragement.
Irish RumourKTB Fit 40/100
Irish Rumour is a modest performer who has shown some spark on his last two starts but remains winless in 30 career runs. He has placed on this trip without winning and acts on good ground though his record on it is modest, while the trainer has failed to land a winner from 18 attempts at Leopardstown and the jockey operates at a 5% strike rate here.
HexagonalKTB Fit 39/100
Hexagonal is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a recent string of modest efforts. He drops back from a mile to a trip he has tried twice without success and makes his first start at Leopardstown from a wide draw, with the trainer and jockey both having modest records at the track and the yard not in great form at present.
Caffu ZafeenKTB Fit 38/100
Caffu Zafeen is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time and was well beaten on his most recent start over 5f. He steps up to 7f for the first time in a while having placed without winning at the trip previously, while he has gone well enough on good ground in the past though the trainer and jockey both have modest records at Leopardstown and the wide draw adds another negative.
Eichan SanKTB Fit 38/100
Eichan San is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He steps up in trip today having failed to make an impact in four previous tries at this distance while his record on good ground is only fair with one placing from three starts, on first run at Leopardstown for a trainer with a small sample here though the jockey has a solid 11% strike rate from nearly a thousand rides at the track.
Mickey The SteelKTB Fit 36/100
Mickey The Steel is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning. He has placed twice from 12 starts on good ground and has form over today's trip though he steps back up from 5f last time, on first run at Leopardstown for a trainer who is 0-13 here while the 3lb claimer has a modest 5% strike rate at the track.
KTB verdict
Navagio is the KTB selection in a race where most of the field are modest types with plenty of placed form but few recent wins between them. He has shown ability at Leopardstown before, handles the good ground and is dropping back to a trip that has brought out the best in him, even if his form this year has been poor overall. The main dangers are Loingseoir with his strong course record, the in-form and course-winning Faoladh, and the consistent if limited Reposado and Goal Exceeded who bring recent placings to the table.
KTB Selection Navagio
This is the narrative read of the 5:10 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Leopardstown?
Loingseoir has finished placed on three of his four visits to Leopardstown while Faoladh has won once from six starts here.
How many of the principals are making their first start at Leopardstown?
Buttermere Ridge and Perfect Base are both making their first start at Leopardstown.
Which runners are wearing headgear for the first time?
Buttermere Ridge and Perfect Base are both fitted with first-time headgear.
What is the trainer and jockey combination strike rate for the selection Navagio?
The trainer and jockey combination for Navagio is 0-9.
Which horse is stepping back up markedly in trip from 2m?
Buttermere Ridge drops back sharply in trip from 2m.
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