4:35 Leopardstown
This 7f45y Irish EBF Auction Series Race for two-year-olds at Leopardstown on good ground brings together a field of 11 with limited experience overall. Only a handful have racecourse form, headed by Sea Of Rain who showed some promise when fourth on debut over this trip and Apollo's Comet who was placed third on his first start at the course. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, underlining how open the race looks on the numbers, with the principals all carrying similar ratings around the mid-40s.
How the race shapes up
With so many newcomers in the field the early pace is hard to gauge precisely, though the race-level shape suggests a fairly even tempo is likely. Sea Of Rain from stall 2 and Tosca No Candis from stall 1 are expected to be forward, while Apollo's Comet and Matrook should be comfortably placed in mid-division. The key question is whether any of the debutants can find the necessary speed and composure on their first run to challenge the placed horses, or whether experience will prove decisive over this stiff seven furlongs.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Sea Of Rain KTB Selection49/100Sea Of Rain showed some promise when fourth on debut over this trip.
- 2Apollo's Comet49/100Placed third on debut over this trip at the course and that effort marks him down as useful for a 2yo with so few runs.
- 3Matrook45/100Matrook is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 4Docks45/100Docks is a newcomer with no racecourse form to go on.
- 5Miss Ellie Mae44/100Miss Ellie Mae is a newcomer whose assessment rests entirely on pedigree, sales background and the yard's record with first-timers.
- 6Bold Move44/100Bold Move is a newcomer from the powerful Aidan O'Brien yard which has an 11 percent strike rate at Leopardstown from 148 runs.
- 7Leadlight44/100Leadlight is a newcomer from the Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard which has a solid 12 percent strike rate from over a thousand runs at Leopardstown.
- 8Dakota Jack43/100Dakota Jack is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 9Miss Cornelia43/100Miss Cornelia is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so the assessment rests on her pedigree and the yard's record with first-timers.
- 10Tosca No Candis41/100Tosca No Candis makes her debut with limited information available.
- 11Chiquitita Bee41/100Chiquitita Bee has shown little in two starts so far, finishing ninth then tenth without suggesting she is ready to compete at this level.
The contenders
Sea Of Rain KTB Fit 49/100
Sea Of Rain showed some promise when finishing fourth on his debut over this trip. The colt is trained by Jim Bolger who has a 14% strike rate at Leopardstown from a huge sample of 3177 runs, while Declan McDonogh rides with a 9% strike rate at the track from 1488 rides. He has no experience on good ground and no previous course form, leaving his ability on the surface and at the venue largely unproven. With only one run on the board this remains very much a watching brief, though the KTB Fit Score of 49 matches the highest in the race and he is the selection.
Apollo's Comet KTB Fit 49/100
Apollo's Comet shaped with promise when third on his debut over this trip at Leopardstown, an effort that reads well for a juvenile with so few runs. The form marks him down as useful in the context of this race even if the small sample means his ability is still largely unproven. Mrs John Harrington and Shane Foley both have solid records at the track, with respective strike rates of 10% and 11%, and the draw in stall 5 looks fine. He has been placed once from one run on good ground and carries a KTB Fit Score of 49.
Matrook KTB Fit 45/100
Matrook lines up as a newcomer with no racecourse experience, so his chance rests on pedigree, sales background and the yard's record with first-timers. Andrew Slattery has a modest 6% strike rate at Leopardstown from 190 runs while the jockey, also Andrew Slattery, is on 7% from 177 rides at the track. By New Bay, he has no course win on record and the KTB Fit Score is 45. Connections will hope he can make a bright start but the limited data makes him hard to assess with real confidence.
Docks KTB Fit 45/100
Docks is another debutant with no racecourse form to go on, meaning assessment rests on pedigree, sales background and stable form with newcomers. Paul W Flynn has a modest 5% strike rate at Leopardstown from 164 runs and Leigh Roche is on 5% from 439 rides here, figures that offer little encouragement. By Nando Parrado, he has no course win on record and the KTB Fit Score stands at 45. Connections will need the debut to go well if he is to be competitive.
Miss Ellie Mae KTB Fit 44/100
Miss Ellie Mae is a newcomer whose chance is judged on pedigree, sales background and the yard's record with first-timers. Gavin Cromwell has a modest 6% strike rate at Leopardstown from 438 runs while Gary Carroll sits at 7% from 618 rides at the track. By Inns Of Court, she has no course win on record and is drawn wide in stall 10, which adds to the difficulty. With low data confidence the KTB Fit Score of 44 reflects that she is impossible to assess with any real certainty on debut.
The rest of the field
Bold MoveKTB Fit 44/100
Bold Move is a newcomer from the powerful Aidan O'Brien yard which has an 11% strike rate at Leopardstown from 148 runs. Gavin Ryan takes the ride but has a modest 6% strike rate from 267 rides at the track, so the colt's chance rests on pedigree, sales background and the KTB Fit Score of 44.
LeadlightKTB Fit 44/100
Leadlight is a newcomer from Joseph Patrick O'Brien's yard which has a solid 12% strike rate at Leopardstown from over a thousand runs. Costing 75,000 euros as a yearling and by Saxon Warrior out of a dam who produced two winners including a Group 3 scorer over this trip, he has a KTB Fit Score of 44 and will need the debut to go well given J M Sheridan's 7% strike rate at the track.
Dakota JackKTB Fit 43/100
Dakota Jack is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. Paul W Flynn has a modest 5% strike rate at Leopardstown from a big sample while Robert Whearty operates at just 2% here, so pedigree and sales background will carry most of the weight with the KTB Fit Score at 43.
Miss CorneliaKTB Fit 43/100
Miss Cornelia is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so the assessment rests on pedigree and the yard's record with first-timers. Joseph G Murphy has a modest 5% strike rate at Leopardstown from a large sample and Ben Coen is on 7%, meaning expectations should stay measured despite the KTB Fit Score of 43.
Tosca No CandisKTB Fit 41/100
Tosca No Candis makes her debut with limited information available. The pedigree and sales background offer the main clues but data confidence remains low, with trainer Robson De Aguiar yet to score from five runs at Leopardstown and jockey Donagh O'Connor operating at 4% here, reflected in the KTB Fit Score of 41.
Chiquitita BeeKTB Fit 41/100
Chiquitita Bee has shown little in two starts so far, finishing ninth then tenth without suggesting she is ready to compete at this level. Adrian McGuinness has a modest 4% strike rate at Leopardstown from a big sample and she already has a poor run over course and trip on her record, leaving the KTB Fit Score of 41 with plenty to find.
KTB verdict
Sea Of Rain is the KTB Selection. He showed some promise when fourth on debut over this trip and benefits from the Bolger-McDonogh combination which has proven form at Leopardstown. The race lacks depth and his KTB Fit Score of 49 is joint-top, so he is expected to go well with the benefit of experience. Apollo's Comet is the obvious danger having already placed third at the course on debut, while the best of the newcomers such as Leadlight, who has a strong pedigree, could improve the picture further if they take the step forward required on their first start.
KTB Selection Sea Of Rain
This is the narrative read of the 4:35 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses in the field already have racecourse experience?
Sea Of Rain has one run (fourth), Apollo's Comet has one run (third), and Chiquitita Bee has two runs (ninth and tenth).
What are the Leopardstown trainer strike rates for the two O'Brien yards represented?
Donnacha Aidan O'Brien has an 11% strike rate at Leopardstown from 148 runs while Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 12% strike rate from 1037 runs.
Which runners are unproven on good ground?
Sea Of Rain, Chiquitita Bee and Miss Ellie Mae (by Inns Of Court) have no runs on good ground.
Which horse has the widest draw and what is the assessment of that factor?
Miss Ellie Mae is drawn in stall 10 and the wide draw is cited as adding to the difficulty of assessing her on debut.
What is the best recent form shown by any runner?
Apollo's Comet has the best recent form with a third on debut over this trip at the course.
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