5:13 Limerick
This 19-runner Conference & Banqueting Facilities @ Limerick Handicap over 1m3f210y on good to yielding ground features a mix of three-year-olds, many of whom are stepping up markedly in trip or making their handicap bows. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Servare heading the list on 55, closely followed by Brave Approach on 54 and a trio on 51. Official figures suggest a modest contest overall, with several runners unproven on the surface and at the distance, making the race a genuine test of stamina and adaptability.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is genuinely run with high confidence, as a front-runner is expected to be pressed by several handy types. Femme Beauty is likely to take them along from a low draw while Servare and Delusional can race prominently. Held-up runners such as Brave Approach, Sofi's Gift and Lord Aus will be looking to come from off the pace in what should be a fair test. The key question is whether those up with the speed can sustain their effort over this stiff trip or if the late closers will be able to reel them in.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Servare KTB Selection55/100Servare is a fair 3-year-old who has shown that level on his best days but has been hit and miss lately.
- 2Brave Approach54/100Modest performer who showed promise when winning a Dundalk handicap on his first run this year but has been safely held in two starts there since.
- 3Femme Beauty51/100Modest performer who has shown a mixed bag this year with a win and three placed efforts from 15 starts.
- 4Chestnut Palace51/100Chestnut Palace is a fair handicapper who has shown consistent but limited ability in five runs, with his best RPR of 77 coming when fifth in a similar race las…
- 5Sofi's Gift51/100Sofi's Gift has shown only modest ability in three maiden runs and now steps into handicaps from a wide draw.
- 6Curious Jane50/100Curious Jane has shown very little in three maiden runs and arrives here as a modest performer on both RPR and Topspeed ratings.
- 7Cascade Canyon48/100Modest performer who has shown little in three maidens and now makes handicap debut off a mark that looks stiff enough.
- 8Kirkland Sioux46/100Modest performer who has shown little in three maidens over a mile or shorter.
- 9The Holy Apostle46/100Modest performer who showed his best form when third in a Killarney nursery last season.
- 10Lord Aus46/100Modest performer who showed his best effort when staying on into third on handicap debut at Down Royal last month.
- 11Delusional45/100Modest performer who ran creditably when third in a Killarney handicap over this trip last time in first-time visor.
- 12Amethyst Stone45/100Modest performer who has shown little in three maidens and now switches to handicaps stepping up to 1m3f.
- 13Celestially44/100Modest performer who showed a bit more when fourth on handicap debut at Navan but failed to build on it at Killarney last time.
- 14Blissful Bonita44/100Modest performer who showed some encouragement when not beaten far on last month's handicap debut at Killarney.
- 15Point Cartwright44/100Modest performer who has shown little in three maidens and one handicap.
- 16Retro Gal40/100Modest performer who has shown little in three maidens over a mile and now steps up markedly in trip on handicap debut.
- 17Royal Sapphire40/100Modest performer who has shown little in seven starts and arrives here with a recent form line of 000070.
- 18Glen Echo40/100Modest performer who has shown little in three maidens and now tries a handicap off a basement mark.
- 19Leeward35/100Modest performer who has shown little in three maidens over a mile.
The contenders
Servare KTB Fit 55/100
Servare is a fair three-year-old who has shown that level on his best days but has been hit and miss of late. He has not won or placed in two runs on this sort of good to yielding ground and has failed to land a blow in two starts at today's trip. The Andrew Slattery yard posts an 8% strike rate at Limerick from 207 runs with an A/E of 0.85, which is offset by the booking of Sam Coen who boasts a 33% strike rate at the track from a small sample of six rides with an A/E of 3.26. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he is drawn in stall 10 and arrives with recent form figures of 48-156 and figures of RPR 75 and TS 61.
Brave Approach KTB Fit 54/100
Brave Approach is a modest performer who showed promise when winning a Dundalk handicap on his first run this year but has been safely held in two starts there since. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. The Jarlath P Fahey stable has a modest 4% strike rate at Limerick from 105 runs with an A/E of 0.56 while the claiming jockey Neve Bennett has been successful on two of her six rides at the track with a 33% strike rate and A/E of 6.68. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 2 with recent form figures of 09-177 and an RPR of 74.
Femme Beauty KTB Fit 51/100
Femme Beauty is a modest performer who has shown a mixed bag this year with a win and three placed efforts from 15 starts. She has run just once at this trip without success and failed to place in four attempts on good to yielding ground. The K J Condon yard strikes at a steady 10% rate at Limerick from 119 runs with an A/E of 0.97 while the jockey Max Popan has no recorded rides at the track. Tending to make the running or race on the pace from stall 4, she brings recent form figures of 937414 along with an RPR of 72 and TS of 68.
Chestnut Palace KTB Fit 51/100
Chestnut Palace is a fair handicapper who has shown consistent but limited ability in five runs, with his best RPR of 77 coming when fifth in a similar race last time. He steps up in trip again today having failed to see out 1m4f previously and looked stretched over 1m2f at Down Royal, so stamina remains a clear concern. First-time cheekpieces are now added while the Noel Meade yard has a solid 15% strike rate at Limerick from 386 runs with an A/E of 0.82. Typically settling in midfield from a wide draw in stall 18, he has recent form figures of 57454.
Sofi's Gift KTB Fit 51/100
Sofi's Gift has shown only modest ability in three maiden runs and now steps into handicaps from a wide draw. The Ciaran Murphy yard records a steady 8% strike rate at Limerick from 49 runs with an A/E of 0.98. Lightly raced with little to shout about on the figures so far, he usually races held up and produces his effort late. He has an RPR of 70 and has course form of seventh on his only previous visit to Limerick.
The rest of the field
Curious JaneKTB Fit 50/100
Curious Jane has shown very little in three maiden runs and arrives here as a modest performer on both RPR and Topspeed ratings. She was well beaten on her only previous visit to Limerick and steps up markedly in trip today for a trainer who has an 8% strike rate from 49 runs at the track. With only three career starts the going remains an unknown and she is entitled to be viewed with caution on handicap debut.
Cascade CanyonKTB Fit 48/100
Cascade Canyon is a modest performer who has shown little in three maidens and now makes handicap debut off a mark that looks stiff enough. Steps up markedly in trip today and that has to be taken on trust as a fresh question for a horse with only three runs behind him. The Kevin Thomas Coleman yard has a modest record here while Shane Foley is more established but both will need this one to improve sharply to get involved.
Kirkland SiouxKTB Fit 46/100
Kirkland Sioux is a modest performer who has shown little in three maidens over a mile or shorter. The step up to 1m3f today asks a fresh question and the dam did win over this trip so it is not a forlorn hope on pedigree. Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 17% strike rate from 349 runs at Limerick while Dylan Browne McMonagle posts a stronger 25% from 69 rides at the track.
The Holy ApostleKTB Fit 46/100
The Holy Apostle is a modest performer who showed his best form when third in a Killarney nursery last season. He steps up markedly in trip on seasonal debut having last run over 7f and that asks a fresh question of him. The Brendan W Duke yard has a 7% strike rate from 41 runs at Limerick while Luke McAteer is operating at 5% from 59 rides here.
Lord AusKTB Fit 46/100
Lord Aus is a modest performer who showed his best effort when staying on into third on handicap debut at Down Royal last month. Steps up in trip again today with first-time cheekpieces and that could help him settle better having looked green. The J P Murtagh yard and Ben Coen both operate at a modest level here with similar modest A/E figures.
DelusionalKTB Fit 45/100
Delusional is a modest performer who ran creditably when third in a Killarney handicap over this trip last time in first-time visor. That effort counts as his best piece of form to date and suggests he can be competitive again off the same mark. The Daniel McLoughlin yard has only two runs at Limerick so far while the wide draw in stall 16 is far from ideal.
Amethyst StoneKTB Fit 45/100
Amethyst Stone is a modest performer who has shown little in three maidens and now switches to handicaps stepping up to 1m3f. The trip looks a fresh question after one previous try at it brought no joy, while the going remains unknown with only three runs on the board. The G M Lyons yard and Colin Keane both hold a 14% strike rate at Limerick from decent-sized samples.
CelestiallyKTB Fit 44/100
Celestially is a modest performer who showed a bit more when fourth on handicap debut at Navan but failed to build on it at Killarney last time. Steps up in trip again today with first-time cheekpieces and the handicapper has eased off a little. The Donnacha Aidan O'Brien yard has a 5% strike rate from 20 runs at Limerick while Gavin Ryan is 8% from 50 rides here.
Blissful BonitaKTB Fit 44/100
Blissful Bonita is a modest performer who showed some encouragement when not beaten far on last month's handicap debut at Killarney. Steps up in trip today and first-time cheekpieces are now fitted. The Gavin Cromwell yard has a 12% strike rate from 304 runs at Limerick while Gary Carroll is operating at 7% from 195 rides here.
Point CartwrightKTB Fit 44/100
Point Cartwright is a modest performer who has shown little in three maidens and one handicap. Latest effort at Ballinrobe offered some encouragement with late headway over 1m2f but he remains hard to fancy from stall 14. The Adrian McGuinness yard and Nathan Crosse both operate at an 8% strike rate here.
Retro GalKTB Fit 40/100
Retro Gal is a modest performer who has shown little in three maidens over a mile and now steps up markedly in trip on handicap debut. Half-sister to a 1m2f winner and out of a Nathaniel mare so the extra distance is an interesting question rather than a negative. The Henry De Bromhead yard has a solid 15% strike rate at Limerick from a big sample while W J Lee is operating at 8% here.
Royal SapphireKTB Fit 40/100
Royal Sapphire is a modest performer who has shown little in seven starts and arrives here with a recent form line of 000070. The step up to 1m3f today asks a fresh question of a horse whose pedigree gives some hope of seeing improvement at this trip. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard has a solid 17% strike rate from 349 runs at Limerick while J M Sheridan is operating at a 5% strike rate from 65 rides here.
Glen EchoKTB Fit 40/100
Glen Echo is a modest performer who has shown little in three maidens and now tries a handicap off a basement mark. Stepping up to 1m3f looks a plausible move and the yard’s solid 12% strike rate at Limerick offers some hope, though the jockey’s 6% record from 18 rides here is less encouraging. Data confidence is only medium and he remains largely unexposed.
LeewardKTB Fit 35/100
Leeward is a modest performer who has shown little in three maidens over a mile. He steps up markedly in trip for handicap debut and that distance is an entirely fresh question. The J P Murtagh yard and Seamie Heffernan both have solid records at Limerick though the wide draw in stall 19 adds another negative.
KTB verdict
Servare is the KTB Selection. A fair three-year-old on his best days, he has the right run-style to be prominent in a race that is set to be run at a genuine gallop and the booking of Sam Coen, who has struck at a 33% rate at Limerick from limited opportunities, is a positive. He will need to put a couple of lesser efforts behind him but the figures suggest he can be competitive at this level. The main dangers are Brave Approach, who brings solid recent form and a strong jockey booking, and Femme Beauty, who could take them along from the front. Chestnut Palace and Sofi's Gift are others who can feature if their stamina holds out.
KTB Selection Servare
This is the narrative read of the 5:13 Limerick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Limerick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is unproven on good to yielding ground but brings the highest official rating among the principals?
Chestnut Palace has an RPR of 77 but no runs on good to yielding ground.
How many of the top five principals are stepping up markedly in trip?
Two of the top five principals, Brave Approach and Sofi's Gift, are stepping up markedly in trip.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Limerick among those represented in the top five?
Noel Meade has a 15% strike rate at Limerick from 386 runs.
Who is the only front-runner among the principals?
Femme Beauty tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Which horse in the full field has the widest draw?
Leeward is drawn in stall 19.
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