4:43 Limerick
This 12-runner optional claiming race at Limerick over 1m3f210y on good to yielding ground features a competitive mix of modest and useful performers. The KTB Fit ratings identify Tyson Fury as the clear top pick on 59, narrowly ahead of Merlin The Wizard on 57 and Wolfpack on 55, with the remainder of the field showing more modest profiles. No horse has recorded course form at Limerick, adding an extra layer of uncertainty to a race that looks tactical on paper.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious front-runner the pace shape is expected to be muddling and tactical, suiting those who can settle close to the pace or in midfield. Prominent runners such as Peace Walk and Dreamed To Dream may attempt to grab the early lead, while the majority of the field, including the principals Tyson Fury, Wolfpack and Kakori, typically race in mid-division. Held-up types like Merlin The Wizard, Taj Crown, Metamorphic, Blackjack Hills and Zammawar will be looking to come from off the pace. The key question is which horse can best navigate the tactical nature of the race and produce its effort at the right time.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Tyson Fury KTB Selection59/100Useful performer who arrives in decent nick having won at this trip earlier in the year and finished a solid third on his most recent start.
- 2Merlin The Wizard57/100Merlin The Wizard is a fair handicapper whose recent form has been patchy and who has failed to build on a second at Listowel in September.
- 3Wolfpack55/100Useful performer who ran to a solid level when fourth on return at Leopardstown.
- 4Kakori52/100Modest filly who ran her best race when sixth of 20 in a handicap at Navan in April, beaten only 3 lengths with a clear run.
- 5Peace Walk46/100Peace Walk is a modest performer who has not won in ten starts and showed ordinary form when last seen over a year ago.
- 6Dreamed To Dream46/100Fair performer who has struggled to build on an early promise and now makes a first start for his fourth trainer this year.
- 7Taj Crown43/100Taj Crown has shown only limited ability in two starts with a best RPR of 59 and has been slowly away both times.
- 8Glendower42/100Modest performer who showed a bit when third at Gowran on his most recent start.
- 9Metamorphic42/100Modest performer who has not built on her placed effort in a heavy-ground maiden last autumn.
- 10Timandi41/100Timandi is a modest performer who has struggled this year with three poor efforts after a placed run on return.
- 11Blackjack Hills38/100Blackjack Hills is a modest performer who showed some improvement when winning twice on the all-weather at Dundalk at up to 1m2f in the spring.
- 12Zammawar33/100Limited performer who has shown very little in six starts and arrives with a recent form line of 05-080.
The contenders
Tyson Fury KTB Fit 59/100
Tyson Fury is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick having won at this trip earlier in the year and finished a solid third on his most recent start. He drops back from 1m6f which should suit having scored twice from ten attempts at this distance while he has also placed once from two starts on good to yielding ground. The nine-year-old typically settles in midfield and is drawn in stall six. Denis Gerard Hogan has an 8% strike rate at Limerick from 425 runs while jockey J M Sheridan is 5% from 65 rides at the track. With figures of RPR 94 and recent form of 3-4610 he holds a strong chance in a race lacking course form.
Merlin The Wizard KTB Fit 57/100
Merlin The Wizard is a fair handicapper whose recent form has been patchy and who has failed to build on a second at Listowel in September. He steps up in trip today for the first time having looked stretched at a mile last time and that leaves him with a question to answer. The six-year-old is usually held up and produces its effort late, with a draw in stall one that could be advantageous in a tactical race. R P Cody has a 15% strike rate at Limerick while Colin Keane posts a 14% record at the track. He holds figures of RPR 75 and recent form of -02538, having placed once from two starts on good to yielding ground.
Wolfpack KTB Fit 55/100
Wolfpack is a useful performer who ran to a solid level when fourth on return at Leopardstown. The four-year-old steps up in trip today for Gordon Elliott, who has a 15% strike rate at Limerick from 734 runs, while Chris Hayes has a 13% record at the track from 333 rides. He typically settles in midfield from draw four. Unproven on good to yielding ground and this represents a fresh question distance-wise. His figures read RPR 92 with recent form of 8109-4.
Kakori KTB Fit 52/100
Kakori is a modest filly who ran her best race when sixth of 20 in a handicap at Navan in April, beaten only 3 lengths with a clear run. She drops back in trip today having last run over 1m5f and that distance is a fresh question. Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 17% strike rate from 349 runs at Limerick while Dylan Browne McMonagle posts a strong 25% from 69 rides here. The four-year-old typically settles in midfield from stall eight and holds figures of RPR 68 with recent form of 65-096. She has had two runs on good to yielding ground without winning or placing.
Peace Walk KTB Fit 46/100
Peace Walk is a modest performer who has not won in ten starts and showed ordinary form when last seen over a year ago. He steps up in trip today having been beaten on his only previous attempt at this distance while the trainer’s modest 6% strike-rate at Limerick from 63 runs offers little encouragement. The five-year-old usually races handily, on or close to the lead, and is drawn in stall 11. The going is another unknown as he has never raced on good to yielding ground. His figures read RPR 71 with recent form of 85659/ and he is ridden by Hugo Tavares Oliveira who has no record at Limerick.
The rest of the field
Dreamed To DreamKTB Fit 46/100
Dreamed To Dream is a fair performer who has struggled to build on an early promise and now makes a first start for his fourth trainer this year. He steps up in trip having been well held over shorter on his most recent run and the small-sample trip record offers no encouragement. The four-year-old usually races handily from draw nine, with both trainer and jockey operating at a 7% strike rate at Limerick. He is unproven on good to yielding ground with figures of RPR 80 and recent form of /900-0.
Taj CrownKTB Fit 43/100
Taj Crown has shown only limited ability in two starts with a best RPR of 59 and has been slowly away both times. She steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of her as a lightly-raced filly from a modest yard and jockey record at Limerick. Drawn in stall 12, she is held up in races and has never raced on good to yielding ground. Recent form reads 9-5.
GlendowerKTB Fit 42/100
Glendower is a modest performer who showed a bit when third at Gowran on his most recent start. He steps up in trip today having never gone beyond 1m1½f and that asks a fresh question of him. The five-year-old typically settles in midfield, with the trainer holding a 10% strike-rate at Limerick from 197 runs. He has placed once from three starts on good to yielding ground with recent form of 2099/3.
MetamorphicKTB Fit 42/100
Metamorphic is a modest performer who has not built on her placed effort in a heavy-ground maiden last autumn. She steps up in trip again today having failed to land a blow over 1m2½f on her most recent start and has looked awkward at the stalls on her last two outings. The yard has a 14% strike rate at Limerick from 526 runs while Shane Foley operates at a similar level here. She has had one run on good to yielding ground without winning or placing, with recent form of 67359-.
TimandiKTB Fit 41/100
Timandi is a modest performer who has struggled this year with three poor efforts after a placed run on return. He drops back from 2m to a trip he has tried twice without success and arrives with no experience of good to yielding ground. The four-year-old typically settles in midfield, with the yard holding an 8% strike rate at Limerick from 37 runs. Recent form reads 5-5009.
Blackjack HillsKTB Fit 38/100
Blackjack Hills is a modest performer who showed some improvement when winning twice on the all-weather at Dundalk at up to 1m2f in the spring. He now steps up in trip on his first run for Matthew J Smith and first appearance at Limerick, with both trainer and jockey holding modest records at the track. The three-year-old is usually held up and has never raced on good to yielding ground. Recent form reads 90011-.
ZammawarKTB Fit 33/100
Zammawar is a limited performer who has shown very little in six starts and arrives with a recent form line of 05-080. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him while his sole run at this track resulted in an 11th-place finish. The yard operates at a 4% strike rate here from 105 runs and he is held up in his races. He has had two runs on good to yielding ground without winning or placing.
KTB verdict
Tyson Fury stands out as the KTB Selection. A useful performer in decent nick, he has already won at this trip this year, finished a solid third last time and drops back from 1m6f to a distance at which he has scored twice from ten attempts. His placed effort on good to yielding ground further strengthens the case in a race where the muddling pace should suit his mid-division run-style. The main dangers are Merlin The Wizard, who has solid trainer and jockey records at the track despite stepping up in trip, and Wolfpack, who ran well on return and represents a yard in form at Limerick, though both have questions to answer regarding stamina and ground respectively. Kakori and Peace Walk add further depth but look held on balance.
KTB Selection Tyson Fury
This is the narrative read of the 4:43 Limerick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Limerick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is unproven on good to yielding ground among the leading contenders?
Wolfpack has had no runs on good to yielding ground.
How many times has Tyson Fury won at this trip?
Tyson Fury has scored twice from ten attempts at this distance.
Which runners are likely to be held up in this tactical race?
Merlin The Wizard, Taj Crown, Metamorphic, Blackjack Hills and Zammawar are usually held up and produce their effort late.
What is Joseph Patrick O'Brien's strike rate at Limerick?
Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 17% strike rate at Limerick from 349 runs.
Has any horse in the field recorded course form at Limerick?
No horse has recorded course form at Limerick, although Zammawar finished 11th on his sole run here.
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