5:25 Redcar
This Class 4 handicap over the straight 7f219y at Redcar on good ground features a field of ten where the KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top. Rajapour and Regalian both sit on a 60/100 Fit rating, with Kaleido, Queen Tamara and Mr King completing the principals on 58, 56 and 51 respectively. The race is a qualifier for the Marske Fabrications And Engineering Straight Mile and, with a lone leader likely to have an uncontested run up front, the shape could make life difficult for those held up off the pace.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will be allowed to dictate an uncontested lead that closers may struggle to bridge. Most of the field, including the top five principals, are held-up types who produce their effort late, which sets up a race where the key question is whether any of the closers can reel in the front-runner on this straight track. Poet's Dawn is the one horse with a front-running style and could be that uncontested leader, potentially making the race a test of stamina for those coming from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Rajapour KTB Selection60/100Rajapour is a fair handicapper who won over this trip earlier in his career and has a solid record at Redcar including a course win from three starts.
- 2Regalian60/100Regalian is a fair performer who has been below form on his last three starts.
- 3Kaleido58/100Kaleido is a fair performer with solid placed form at this trip, including three efforts from seven starts, though he has yet to win over the distance.
- 4Queen Tamara56/100Fair performer who showed useful form as a 2yo with two wins but has been well held in both starts this season.
- 5Mr King51/100Mr King is a fair performer who has won at this trip in the past but is stepping back up to a mile today after his most recent run over 7f.
- 6Camino Del Ray51/100Modest performer who has shown some spark this year, winning at Thirsk in June before a solid second here last time.
- 7Boy Named Sioux51/100Modest performer who has struggled since his winning debut last year, finishing well held on his last three starts.
- 8Poet's Dawn47/100Poet's Dawn is a modest 11-year-old with a solid recent record of 631117 that includes three wins this year.
- 9Substance47/100Substance is a fair 3-year-old who has shown useful form this year, including a win over today's trip.
- 10Mount King36/100Modest performer with a solid recent record that includes a win and a second from his last six starts.
The contenders
Rajapour KTB Fit 60/100
Rajapour is a fair handicapper who won over this trip earlier in his career and has a solid record at Redcar including a course win from three starts. He showed his best recent form when taking a similar race last month before a fall, though he was below that level on his latest start. The yard has a 15% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.02 from 761 runs while the jockey posts a 10% strike rate with an A/E of 0.97 from 80 rides. He acts on good ground with one win from seven starts and three places. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he steps up in class from a draw of one. His recent form reads 6941F5.
Regalian KTB Fit 60/100
Regalian is a fair performer who has been below form on his last three starts. He has course experience here but could only finish sixth on his sole visit, while the drop back to 1m looks a fair question having been placed without winning at the trip before. The yard hold a 19% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.45 from 27 runs and the jockey has a 10% strike rate with an A/E of 0.9 from 404 rides. He has been placed twice from three starts on good ground without winning. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw five, his recent form reads 3-6888.
Kaleido KTB Fit 58/100
Kaleido is a fair performer with solid placed form at this trip, including three efforts from seven starts, though he has yet to win over the distance. He acts on good ground with a win and four places from six runs, and the drop back from 1m0½f looks a neutral move rather than a negative. The yard has a 15% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.02 from 761 runs while the jockey is less established with an 8% rate from 13 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw nine, he has no course form on record. His recent form reads 609225.
Queen Tamara KTB Fit 56/100
Queen Tamara is a fair performer who showed useful form as a 2yo with two wins but has been well held in both starts this season. She has already won on good ground from three starts with one place and the yard's 33% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.05 from six runs is a plus, though the jockey is operating at 8% with an A/E of 0.78 from 126 rides, below the course average. The trip looks on the short side for her now. Usually held up and producing her effort late from draw eight with medium confidence in that assessment, she has no course form on record. Her recent form reads 212-97.
Mr King KTB Fit 51/100
Mr King is a fair performer who has won at this trip in the past but is stepping back up to a mile today after his most recent run over 7f. He has shown bits of form this year yet remains winless in two runs at Redcar and his overall strike rate is modest. The trainer and jockey both operate at a 9% strike rate here which is in line with expectations on these figures, the trainer's A/E standing at 0.87 from 223 runs and the jockey's at 0.78 from 499 rides. He has two wins from 13 starts on good ground with six places. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw four, his recent form reads 0-6718.
The rest of the field
Camino Del RayKTB Fit 51/100
Camino Del Ray is a modest performer who has shown some spark this year, winning at Thirsk in June before a solid second here last time. He drops back to a trip he has won over previously though he is unproven on good ground. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 0.79 from 309 runs while the jockey has a 14% strike rate with an A/E of 1.03 from 508 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw seven, he has been placed without winning in two runs here. His recent form reads 65-614.
Boy Named SiouxKTB Fit 51/100
Boy Named Sioux is a modest performer who has struggled since his winning debut last year, finishing well held on his last three starts. He drops back in trip having been out of his depth over 1m2f last time, though he showed nothing at this distance on his only previous attempt. The yard have a 24% strike-rate at Redcar with an A/E of 1.65 from 17 runs while the jockey is operating at 11% with an A/E of 0.91 from 45 rides. He has had two runs on good ground without winning or placing. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw two, he has no course form on record. His recent form reads 16-579.
Poet's DawnKTB Fit 47/100
Poet's Dawn is a modest 11-year-old with a solid recent record of 631117 that includes three wins this year. He has placed here without winning in seven runs and drops back to a trip he has won over before though his last start was at a longer distance. The yard holds an 8% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 0.78 from 2332 runs while the jockey is on 5% with an A/E of 0.72 from 750 rides. He has four wins from 21 starts on good ground with nine places. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace from draw six, he steps up in class. His recent form reads 631117.
SubstanceKTB Fit 47/100
Substance is a fair 3-year-old who has shown useful form this year, including a win over today's trip. He has already won on good ground from five starts with one place and steps back up to a mile after his latest run over 7f. The yard has a 5% strike rate at Redcar with an A/E of 0.56 from 101 runs and the jockey has a 6% strike rate with an A/E of 0.6 from 211 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw ten, he has no course form on record. His recent form reads -41036.
Mount KingKTB Fit 36/100
Mount King is a modest performer with a solid recent record that includes a win and a second from his last six starts. He has been a regular at Redcar yet has never won or placed in four runs here and the yard's 8% strike-rate at the track with an A/E of 0.78 from 2332 runs adds little encouragement. The 5lb claimer helps but this trip has become a stiff test for him lately despite past success at it. He has one win from 16 starts on good ground with four places. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw three, he steps up in class. His recent form reads 865129.
KTB verdict
Rajapour is the KTB Selection. A fair handicapper with a course win to his name and a recent success in a similar race before a fall, he brings solid Redcar form and the yard's strong 15% strike-rate at the track into play. Usually held up, he will need the race to fall right given the uncontested lead likely to be enjoyed by the front-runner. The main dangers are Regalian, who has a solid yard record at the track despite recent below-par efforts, and Kaleido, who brings consistent placed form at the trip and acts well on good ground.
KTB Selection Rajapour
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:09 UTC, 22 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Rajapour | 7/2 | Betfred |
| Queen Tamara | 3/1 | Betfred |
| Boy Named Sioux | 28/1 | Betfred |
| Poet's Dawn | 11/1 | 7Bet |
| Substance | 11/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 5:25 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to get the uncontested lead?
Poet's Dawn is the sole front-runner in a pace shape assessed as a lone leader with high confidence.
How many of the principals are held-up runners?
All five principals – Rajapour, Regalian, Kaleido, Queen Tamara and Mr King – are held-up types who usually produce their effort late.
Which trainer has the strongest strike-rate at Redcar in this field?
Harry Charlton has a 33% strike-rate at Redcar from six runs with an A/E of 1.05.
Which horse has the most course experience at Redcar?
Poet's Dawn has seven runs here with one placing while Mount King has four runs with no win or place.
Who has won over today's trip in the past?
Rajapour, Mr King, Camino Del Ray, Poet's Dawn and Substance have all won over today's trip previously.
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