5:25 Roscommon
This 2m4f46y maiden hurdle at Roscommon on good ground brings together a field of 19, many of whom are lightly raced or unproven at the trip in a race that lacks any obvious pace influence. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Ruled By The Sun heading the numbers on 63 despite limited exposure, followed closely by Cool Native on 59 and Tumbling In on 58. Trainer and jockey combinations carry varying weight at the track, with several yards showing modest strike rates here and the overall picture pointing to a tactical, steadily-run contest where being on the right part of the pace could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious leader in a field that largely consists of hold-up types, the pace shape is expected to be steady and tactical. Most principals such as Ruled By The Sun, Cool Native, Rodeo Joe, Goodmancon and Seven Towers prefer to be held up, while Tumbling In and Casper Charlie are more likely to settle in mid-division. The key question will be whether those racing handily can maintain their position without over-racing early, or if the race will fall apart late for the closers in what looks a race that could be won from off the pace if the tempo remains even.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Ruled By The Sun KTB Selection63/100Lightly raced with only three starts and poor recent form of 7-7P, so this is very much a watching brief.
- 2Cool Native59/100Smart performer who has shown consistent placed form when avoiding mishaps, including a solid third on his most recent start.
- 3Tumbling In58/100Tumbling In has shown consistent placed form in maiden hurdles, finishing third on both starts this year.
- 4Rodeo Joe55/100Rodeo Joe has very little to go on after just one run in the last year which ended in a pulled-up effort.
- 5Coral Reid54/100Coral Reid is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 6Goodmancon52/100Goodmancon has shown only modest form in 13 starts and was well held on his latest completed start before falling last time.
- 7Maple Mornin52/100Maple Mornin showed little on debut when finishing ninth and has only that one run in the last year.
- 8Minella Moon Shine50/100Minella Moon Shine has shown ability by finishing second on his only completed start and was placed again when runner-up over this course on his most recent run…
- 9Seven Towers49/100Seven Towers has shown fair form in three runs this year, finishing third on each occasion, though he was well held in the latest.
- 10Boston Common47/100Boston Common has very little racecourse evidence with just one completed start in the last year and an overall profile that remains largely unknown.
- 11Who's Going46/100This lightly raced 4-year-old has shown very little in three starts to date and arrives with plenty to prove.
- 12Kalico Leader44/100Kalico Leader is a 7-year-old debutant with just three previous runs under rules, the latest a second in a point earlier this year.
- 13Carrigane44/100Carrigane has shown steady placed form in his two most recent starts but the overall sample remains very small after just five career runs.
- 14Casper Charlie44/100Casper Charlie has only two career runs and fell on his most recent start here over this trip.
- 15Siege Of Milan43/100Siege Of Milan is a newcomer whose form is impossible to gauge on the track.
- 16Star Cave42/100Star Cave has shown fair placed form over longer trips on his last three completed starts but was well held when only fourth on return last time.
- 17Louve d'Arc41/100Louve d'Arc has shown modest form in three starts so far, finishing no closer than seventh.
- 18Xquise39/100Xquise has shown little in two bumper runs and four Flat starts, all over much shorter trips, so the big step up to 2m4f poses a fresh question.
- 19Installment39/100Installment has shown only modest form in four completed starts and was pulled up on his most recent outing.
The contenders
Ruled By The Sun KTB Fit 63/100
Ruled By The Sun is lightly raced with only three starts to his name and comes into this on the back of modest recent form figures of 7-7P. The drop back from three miles to this untried 2m4f distance introduces a fresh question, as does the application of first-time headgear on a horse who is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer Ray Hackett has a solid 20% strike rate at Roscommon from 15 runs with an A/E of 2.02, while jockey Liam Quinlan holds a 12% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.56 from 25 rides. The combination has produced an overall trainer-jockey record of 11/137 with an A/E of 1.02. This remains very much a watching brief on balance.
Cool Native KTB Fit 59/100
Cool Native is a smart performer who has shown consistent placed form when avoiding mishaps, most recently finishing a solid third. He steps up in trip having already tried this distance once without success and now sports first-time headgear while usually racing held up and producing his effort late. Gordon Elliott has a 17% strike rate at Roscommon from 296 runs with an A/E of 0.97, and Jack Kennedy matches that 17% strike rate at the track from 65 rides with an A/E of 0.92. The pair combine for a trainer-jockey record of 644/3398 with an A/E of 0.88. He has been competitive on good ground without winning from two starts.
Tumbling In KTB Fit 58/100
Tumbling In has shown consistent placed form in maiden hurdles, finishing third on both starts this year to add to earlier efforts of 43-33. He now drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried, which poses a new question of him while he typically settles in mid-division. The yard of E McNamara has an 8% strike rate at Roscommon from 111 runs with an A/E of 1.00, and jockey G B Noonan holds a 9% strike rate here from 22 rides with an A/E of 1.3. Trainer and jockey together show 4/44 with an A/E of 0.92. He has been placed on his only start on good ground without winning.
Rodeo Joe KTB Fit 55/100
Rodeo Joe has very little to go on after just one run in the last year which ended in a pulled-up effort, adding to earlier figures of PPP/P-. The trip is a fresh question today having only been seen over 2m1f so far while he is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer David K Walsh has no recorded runs at Roscommon with an overall 0% strike rate from three attempts, though jockey Paddy Cody, claiming 7 lb, has a 33% strike rate at the track from three rides with an A/E of 3.54. He showed no win or place on his one start on good ground.
Coral Reid KTB Fit 54/100
Coral Reid is a newcomer with no racecourse experience, so the pedigree by Pillar Coral and any sales background provide the only pointers in what remains a low-data-confidence profile. Trainer E McNamara has an 8% strike rate at Roscommon from 111 runs with an A/E of 1.00, while jockey Tom Kelly, claiming 7 lb, holds an 11% strike rate here from nine rides with an A/E of 1.49. The trainer-jockey combination shows 1/8 with no further detail supplied. This is very much an unknown quantity on his first start.
The rest of the field
GoodmanconKTB Fit 52/100
Goodmancon has shown only modest form in 13 starts and was well held on his latest completed start before falling last time out. He has never won or placed on good ground from four attempts and is now tried at this trip for just the second time, with the yard of P J Breen holding no record at Roscommon from 22 runs overall.
Maple MorninKTB Fit 52/100
Maple Mornin showed little on debut when finishing ninth and has only that one run in the last year. The step up in trip today asks a fresh question of a horse with very limited racecourse evidence, while trainer D M Christie has a 4% strike rate at Roscommon from 26 runs and the 5 lb claimer is making his first appearance at the track.
Minella Moon ShineKTB Fit 50/100
Minella Moon Shine has shown ability by finishing second on his only completed start and was placed again when runner-up over this course on his most recent run. He now steps up markedly in trip for the first time which asks a fresh question of him, though the trainer holds a solid 17% strike rate at Roscommon from 24 runs and he has been placed on his only start on good ground.
Seven TowersKTB Fit 49/100
Seven Towers has shown fair form in three runs this year, finishing third on each occasion though he was well held in the latest. He has only had one attempt at this trip so far without placing, while the yard of Gavin Cromwell has a 12% strike rate at Roscommon from 188 runs and he has been placed twice from three starts on good ground.
Boston CommonKTB Fit 47/100
Boston Common has very little racecourse evidence with just one completed start in the last year and an overall profile that remains largely unknown. The switch to 2m4f today asks a fresh stamina question after a run over 2m1f, with trainer and jockey both holding modest records at Roscommon and the small-sample data meaning any conclusions must be treated with caution.
Who's GoingKTB Fit 46/100
This lightly raced 4-year-old has shown very little in three starts to date and arrives with plenty to prove. The trip looks a fair question having failed to make an impact on his only attempt at it, while Gordon Elliott has a solid 17% strike rate at Roscommon from a big sample though Sam Ewing's record at the track is modest.
Kalico LeaderKTB Fit 44/100
Kalico Leader is a 7-year-old debutant with just three previous runs under rules, the latest a second in a point earlier this year. His sales and pedigree background is not supplied so the assessment stays very limited, and the yard has only one run at Roscommon which is too small a sample to judge.
CarriganeKTB Fit 44/100
Carrigane has shown steady placed form in his two most recent starts but the overall sample remains very small after just five career runs. The yard has a 0% strike rate from six runs at Roscommon and the horse has failed to win in his only attempt at this trip, with no runs on good ground leaving that side of his profile unproven.
Casper CharlieKTB Fit 44/100
Casper Charlie has only two career runs and fell on his most recent start here over this trip. The small sample makes it impossible to judge his ability, going preference or whether Roscommon suits, while both trainer and jockey have too few runs at the track for any meaningful read.
Siege Of MilanKTB Fit 43/100
Siege Of Milan is a newcomer whose form is impossible to gauge on the track. His pedigree and sales background offer the only clues and the trainer’s modest 5% strike rate at Roscommon from 92 runs suggests limited encouragement from the yard, leaving him very much an unknown quantity.
Star CaveKTB Fit 42/100
Star Cave has shown fair placed form over longer trips on his last three completed starts but was well held when only fourth on return last time. He drops back in trip today to a distance he has never tried which asks a fresh question, first-time headgear is now applied and the yard's small-sample record at the track offers no real guide.
Louve d'ArcKTB Fit 41/100
Louve d'Arc has shown modest form in three starts so far, finishing no closer than seventh. The step up in trip is an unknown and the small sample means there is little else to go on, while both trainer and jockey have too few runs at Roscommon to judge and he remains unproven on good ground.
XquiseKTB Fit 39/100
Xquise has shown little in two bumper runs and four Flat starts, all over much shorter trips, so the big step up to 2m4f poses a fresh question. The yard's record at Roscommon is modest with a 4% strike rate from 27 runs, data confidence is only medium and the going remains unknown with such a light career total.
InstallmentKTB Fit 39/100
Installment has shown only modest form in four completed starts and was pulled up on his most recent outing. He drops back in trip from three miles today having failed to trouble the judge in his one previous run at this distance, while the trainer has a 0% strike rate from nine runs at Roscommon.
KTB verdict
Ruled By The Sun tops the KTB Fit Scores and is named the selection, with the trainer's solid record at Roscommon from a small but effective sample offering some encouragement despite the horse's modest recent form and the unknowns of trip, headgear and limited experience. The selection is likely to be held up and come from off the pace in a steadily-run affair where being handy could pay according to the shape. Main dangers include Cool Native, who brings the strongest placed form and the powerful Elliott-Kennedy combination, along with the consistent Tumbling In who has been hitting the frame regularly and Minella Moon Shine who has course form and a previous placing on good ground.
KTB Selection Ruled By The Sun
This is the narrative read of the 5:25 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest placed form among the principals?
Cool Native has shown consistent placed form when avoiding mishaps, including a solid third on his most recent start.
How many horses in the field are making their racecourse debut?
Coral Reid and Siege Of Milan are newcomers with no racecourse experience.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Roscommon among those with meaningful data?
Ray Hackett has a 20% strike rate at Roscommon from 15 runs with an A/E of 2.02.
Which runner has course form at Roscommon?
Minella Moon Shine was placed when runner-up over this course on his most recent run, and Casper Charlie fell here on his latest start.
How does the pace shape influence the race?
Lacks a leader with medium confidence, so it is likely a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
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