5:30 Navan
This 23-runner maiden over 1m2f10y at Navan on good ground is a typical large-field Flat contest at the track in which experience and a favourable draw can prove decisive. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with five horses rated between 51 and 54, underlining the competitive and open nature of the race. Overall the numbers point to a steadily-run affair in which those with previous placed form and the ability to race handily should hold an edge.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical race in which being handy will pay dividends. With several runners noted as held-up types, including the selection Handani, the key question is whether those coming from off the pace can weave their way through a packed field or whether the prominent and midfield runners will dominate as the race unfolds. The wide draws of several principals add another layer of complexity to how the race will be run.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Michinaga54/100
Michinaga has shown little in two starts so far, finishing ninth then sixth. The drop back from 1m4f to an untried 1m2f asks a fresh question of him. Trainer Charles Weld has a solid 14% strike rate at Navan from 14 runs while the 5lb claimer Rory Mulligan is operating at a 6% strike rate from 36 rides here. He typically settles in midfield. With a KTB Fit Score of 54 he is one of the top-rated but his form offers limited encouragement.
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2Handani KTB Selection54/100
Handani has shown fair form in three starts and was placed over today's trip on his most recent outing. He is lightly raced so there is still scope for improvement though the wide draw in stall 23 is a clear negative. The trainer D K Weld has a solid 12% strike rate at Navan while jockey Chris Hayes sits on a 7% record here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has been placed on both starts on good ground. Rated 54 on KTB Fit, he is the selection in a race where his placed form gives him a clear edge over most.
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3Nugentstown Sue53/100
Nugentstown Sue has a modest recent record of two unplaced efforts and remains lightly raced overall after just eight starts. The trainer Hugh Paul Finegan holds a 7% strike rate from 27 runs at Navan while the jockey Nicola Burns is still seeking a first winner from 19 rides here. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she has shown some competitiveness on good ground without winning. Dropping back from 1m4f to an untried 1m2f trip asks a fresh question of the 7-year-old mare. Her KTB Fit Score of 53 keeps her in the mix among the principals.
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4Heriot's Hope51/100
Heriot's Hope makes her debut with only pedigree and sales information to go on. The yard of A Oliver has a solid 8% strike rate from 344 runs at Navan while W J Lee posts an 11% record from 564 rides here. With low data confidence any firm view on her ability would be guesswork. By Cityscape, she has no course win on record. Rated 51 on KTB Fit, she is one of several debutants in a race where experience could be at a premium.
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5Highlander Addict51/100
Highlander Addict has shown little in two starts this season after a placed effort over C&D last year. Steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question of a horse with only seven career runs. Trainer Patrick J Flynn has a modest 9% strike-rate here from a big sample while the 7lb claimer Robyn Donaghue-Leahy is still seeking a first course winner from eight rides. Usually held up, he has a 1 win from 3 on good with 2 placed. His course second last year gives him some foundation and a KTB Fit of 51 keeps him in the principal group.
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6Sakoku51/100
Sakoku is a fair 3-year-old with placed form on his last two starts yet still looks short of the very best at this level. He drops back from 1m4f to 1m2f today having failed to trouble the judge when tried at the shorter trip earlier in the year. Trainer and jockey both have solid but unspectacular records at Navan and the wide draw adds another negative.
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7If Not For Grace48/100
If Not For Grace has shown very little in three starts to date with a recent form string of 080. The step up to this trip is an unknown that could suit or expose the lightly raced 4 year old further. Trainer Liam P Cusack holds a 7% strike rate from 59 runs at Navan while jockey James Ryan is 4% from 121 rides here.
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8Legato47/100
Legato is a debutant with no racecourse experience. The yard's modest 5% strike-rate at Navan from a large sample suggests limited expectations for newcomers here. Pedigree and sales background will need to be strong to offset that.
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9Camelot Queen47/100
Modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip, finishing third twice and fourth once from her last three starts. Drawn wide in stall 14 and yet to prove herself on good ground given the small sample. Trainer strikes at a solid 23% rate here while the jockey is operating at 8%.
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10It's Good To Talk47/100
It's Good To Talk is a modest performer with three poor efforts this year and only five runs in total. The drop back from 1m4f to 1m2f poses a fresh question having failed to trouble the judge when tried at this trip before. Emmet Mullins has a solid 21% strike rate at Navan while Jamie Powell sits on a 6% record here.
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11Metallic45/100
Metallic has shown little in two starts so far, finishing well beaten on both occasions. The drop back from 1m4f to 1m2f10y poses a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 12 adds another complication. Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien holds a 12% strike rate at Navan from 504 runs and jockey Scott McCullagh is 5% from 59 rides here.
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12Gulf Beat45/100
Gulf Beat is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a steady 12% strike rate at Navan from a large sample. The jockey is less prolific here with a 7% strike rate from 132 rides. With no racecourse form and only low data confidence the assessment rests entirely on his sales and pedigree background.
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13Twin Nation45/100
Twin Nation is a debutant with no racecourse experience. The Noel Meade yard has a solid 13% strike rate at Navan from a big sample while Seamie Heffernan posts a 10% record here. Pedigree and sales background will decide how much interest there is on this first run.
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14Deetee45/100
Deetee showed fair form when second on debut over 1m1f last year before finishing fifth on his return. He now steps up in trip as a lightly-raced 4-year-old with only two runs in the book, so expectations must be cautious. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 43 runs at Navan while jockey Leigh Roche operates at a 7% strike rate from 339 rides here.
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15Steppinoncats44/100
Steppinoncats has a single run on the board so far and steps up markedly in trip today to 1m2f, which has to be treated as an unknown. The yard's record at Navan is too small to read anything into while the jockey has a solid 9% strike rate from 115 rides here. With only one piece of form and low data confidence this is very much a watching brief.
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16Scorcher's Son44/100
Scorcher's Son has only one run on the board and finished seventh last time. The step up to 1m2f is an unknown and the small sample means little else can be read into his ability or preferences. Trainer and jockey both have solid if unspectacular records at Navan.
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17Mississippi Shine44/100
Mississippi Shine is a debutant with limited racecourse evidence to go on. The Lyons yard has a solid 13% strike-rate at Navan from a big sample while Keane is equally established here with a 14% record. Pedigree and sales background will decide how much interest there is.
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18Royal Bones44/100
Royal Bones showed fair promise when second on debut over a mile before failing to build on it at the same trip last time. The lightly-raced colt now steps up in distance for the first time, which is an open question at this stage. Both trainer and jockey have solid 11% strike rates at Navan from large samples.
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19Medadthebookie43/100
Medadthebookie has shown little in two runs this year after a modest first campaign and now steps up markedly in trip from 1m. The booking of Whearty is a plus given his solid 8% strike rate from 110 rides at Navan. Trainer Buckley has yet to strike in ten runs at the track.
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20Vico Road42/100
Vico Road is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The yard's modest 4% strike-rate at Navan from a large sample suggests limited recent success here. Pedigree and sales background will carry most of the weight on debut.
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21Four Ball42/100
Four Ball has shown very little in two starts so far, finishing sixth then last. The drop back from 1m4f to an untried 1m2f asks a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 19 is far from ideal on this track. Trainer Ciaran Murphy has a 2% strike rate from 64 runs at Navan and jockey Gavin Ryan sits on a 6% record from 190 rides here, so the combination brings limited encouragement on this lightly-raced maiden.
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22Giordano41/100
Giordano has shown very little in two starts so far, finishing ninth and then last. He is trying the same trip again having failed to make any impression at it twice already. Both trainer and jockey have modest records at Navan and the small-sample data means this 3-year-old remains hard to assess with any confidence.
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23Ben Lomond39/100
Ben Lomond has shown very little in ten runs and was beaten 27 lengths on his most recent start. He drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried while drawn in stall 20. The trainer has too small a sample at Navan to judge while the jockey's 3% strike rate from 124 rides here is modest.
KTB verdict
Handani stands out as the KTB Selection. He has shown fair form in three starts, was placed over today's trip on his most recent outing, and remains lightly raced with scope for improvement. The combination of D K Weld and Chris Hayes brings solid Navan figures, and his placed efforts on good ground add to his credentials. The wide draw is the main concern in a steadily-run race that may favour those who can race handily. The main dangers are the consistent Camelot Queen from the powerful A P O'Brien stable, the C&D placed Highlander Addict, and any of the better-bred debutants such as Heriot's Hope or Mississippi Shine if the market speaks in their favour.
KTB Selection Handani
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:26 UTC, 5 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Michinaga | 80/1 | BetTom |
| Handani | 15/8 | William Hill |
| Nugentstown Sue | 200/1 | Bet365 |
| Heriot's Hope | 14/1 | BetTom |
| Highlander Addict | 66/1 | BetTom |
| Sakoku | 8/1 | BetTom |
| If Not For Grace | 150/1 | BetTom |
| Legato | 50/1 | BetTom |
| Camelot Queen | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| It's Good To Talk | 40/1 | William Hill |
| Metallic | 50/1 | BetTom |
| Gulf Beat | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Twin Nation | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Deetee | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Steppinoncats | 125/1 | BetTom |
| Scorcher's Son | 12/1 | BetTom |
| Mississippi Shine | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Royal Bones | 3/1 | BetTom |
| Medadthebookie | 125/1 | BetTom |
| Vico Road | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Four Ball | 80/1 | Bet365 |
| Giordano | 200/1 | Bet365 |
| Ben Lomond | 200/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 5:30 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest placed form at this trip?
Handani was placed over today's trip on his most recent outing and has been competitive on both starts on good ground.
How does the lack of an obvious leader affect the race?
It points to a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays, as indicated by the pace shape with medium confidence.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Navan in this field?
A P O'Brien with a 23% strike rate at Navan from 1029 runs for Camelot Queen.
Who has previous course and distance form?
Highlander Addict has a placed effort over C&D last year and ran once here finishing second.
What is the main negative for the selection Handani?
The wide draw in stall 23 is a clear negative.
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