4:55 Navan
A big-field 24-runner handicap over 1m2f10y at Navan on good ground marks the return of the jumps season with the Return Of The Jumps At Navan Racecourse September 19th Handicap (Div II). The KTB numbers point to a race full of limited performers where consistency and course knowledge carry extra weight, with the top five in the Fit rankings separated by just 13 points and the bottom of the field struggling to break the 40 mark.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay dividends. With the majority of the field, including all five principals, holding up or producing their effort late, the race is likely to develop into a test of timing from off the pace rather than pure speed. The key question is whether any horse can quicken effectively off a slow tempo or whether those able to secure a forward position without over-exerting will hold the advantage in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Millhone KTB Selection63/100
Millhone is a modest performer who has been consistent of late with three seconds from his last five starts including when placed on his only visit to this track. He drops back from 1m6f to a trip he has never tried which asks a fresh question while first-time headgear is also an unknown. The trainer has a solid 14% strike rate here from 14 runs while the jockey is operating at 6% from 36 rides. His recent form figures of 792232 reflect steady placed efforts and he holds a placed record from three of five starts on good ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late from a wide draw of 22, he will need the race to fall right in a steadily-run affair. The KTB Fit score of 63 marks him clear of the field.
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2Wingit55/100
Wingit is a limited performer who has shown little in 13 starts and failed to place in four runs on good ground. First run at Navan today adds an unknown element while the trip has already been tried once without success. The trainer and jockey both hold solid records at the track with the yard at 11% strike rate and the rider at 14%. Recent form figures of 695260 underline his modest level and he is another who is usually held up and produces his effort late. From a low draw of 4 he may be able to track the race more comfortably than some of his wide-drawn rivals in what is expected to be a tactical contest.
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3Deuteronomy53/100
Deuteronomy is a limited performer who has been well beaten on his last four starts and showed only modest form when fifth of 13 on his only previous run here. He steps up in trip today having won once from seven starts at this distance though his recent efforts suggest he is vulnerable again. The trainer has a solid 10% strike-rate from 48 runs at Navan while the jockey remains winless from 19 rides at the track. With form figures of 105589 he brings a placed record of four from 16 runs on good ground. Usually held up, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where timing will be critical.
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4Nibras Rainbow52/100
Nibras Rainbow is a limited performer who has shown some consistency this year but lacks real depth to his form. He has won on good ground and at today's trip yet arrives in modest order after a string of ordinary efforts. Trainer and jockey both have below-average records at Navan with the yard on 6% and the rider on 7%. Form figures of 321393 show he can place but his recent efforts have been ordinary. Usually held up from a low draw of 3, he could track the race conveniently if the pace remains steady, though he needs to find more to trouble the principals.
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5Strike De Vega50/100
Strike De Vega is a limited performer who has shown very little in four starts to date. Has been tried at this trip twice without success and was well held when sixth of 14 over C&D on his penultimate run. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at Navan with the yard at 8% and the rider at 6%. Form figures of 0600 paint a modest picture and he is held up with medium confidence in that assessment. From draw 6 he is not drawn too wide but will need to improve markedly on what he has shown so far to feature in a race of this depth.
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6Trishuli River48/100
Trishuli River is a limited performer who has been out of the frame on his last three starts and showed little spark at 1m5f last time. He drops back to a trip he has won at before but holds a poor record on good ground from just five attempts. The trainer has a solid A/E at Navan while the jockey's long-term strike rate here is modest.
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7Ballaghkeen48/100
Ballaghkeen is a modest performer who has failed to build on a promising debut when finishing down the field in three subsequent starts. Steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Navan but this one needs to show significant improvement.
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8Miss Crinshawn46/100
Miss Crinshawn is a limited performer who has been placed a couple of times at this trip but has never won in eleven starts. She ran no sort of race when last seen over much further here and the first-time headgear is now reached for. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Navan.
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9Tickle The Cat46/100
Tickle The Cat is a limited horse who has shown little in four runs to date, finishing no better than seventh. The trainer holds a 9% strike rate at Navan from 70 runs while the jockey is operating at 7% from 740 rides here. Dropping back in trip today poses a fresh question and the going remains unknown with such a light career.
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10Keilah44/100
Keilah is a limited performer who has been placed twice from three runs at Navan without winning. She steps up in trip today having been placed at this distance on three occasions from 12 starts, and first-time headgear is now tried. The trainer has a modest 2% strike rate here from 45 runs while the jockey records a 7% strike rate from 132 rides.
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11Due In June43/100
Due In June is a limited sort who has shown very little in six starts to date and now tries a new trip with first-time headgear. The trainer holds a solid 10% strike rate at Navan from 40 runs while the jockey is operating at a 4% strike rate from 89 rides here.
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12Sunny Dude42/100
Sunny Dude is a limited performer who has shown only modest form in recent starts and looks stretched by this big-field handicap from stall 20. He has placed once from two runs at Navan and is competitive on good ground, though he has never won on either. Dropping back from 2m to 1m2f today asks a fresh question as he has been unsuccessful in three previous attempts at the trip.
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13Queen Leila42/100
Queen Leila is a limited performer who has shown mixed form across 11 starts and arrives here off the back of a modest effort last time. Steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question while the yard's record at Navan offers little encouragement. Jockey has a solid 9% strike rate here from 115 rides.
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14Onyeisi41/100
Onyeisi is a limited performer who has struggled for consistency this year and showed little at this track on his only previous run here. He steps up in trip today having won once over this distance in the past but his record on good ground is ordinary. The trainer has a poor strike rate at Navan.
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15Arizona Star41/100
Arizona Star is a limited performer who has shown ordinary form at best, with a recent sequence of 30638 that includes a placed effort over today's trip. He steps up from 1m today having been placed twice in three runs at this distance without winning. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Navan from a big sample is a negative while the jockey's record here is a bit better.
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16Captain Con40/100
Captain Con has shown very little in six runs and sits firmly in the limited category on both recent form and ratings. Dropping back to 1m2f is an unknown and the wide draw in stall 18 adds to the difficulties on his first attempt in headgear. The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate at Navan from a big sample while the jockey posts a 14% record here.
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17Cadreville40/100
Cadreville is a limited performer who has shown very little in eight starts and finished well beaten on his only previous run here. Drops back in trip with first-time headgear and that asks a fresh question, but the yard's modest 7% strike rate at Navan offers little encouragement. Jockey also operates at 7% here from a big sample.
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18Borora Aura40/100
Borora Aura is a limited horse who has shown only modest form across 11 runs and finished no better than mid-division in six starts this year. Steps up in trip for the first time today having been placed without winning over this distance on one previous attempt. Trainer strikes at a 5% rate from 334 runs here while the jockey is 6% from 18 rides.
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19Carrickfinn39/100
Carrickfinn is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and looks up against it from a wide draw. Has run twice at this track without placing and is stepping up markedly in trip having been campaigned over much shorter lately. Placed once from five runs on good ground but that is modest form at best.
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20Emily's Boy39/100
Emily's Boy is a limited performer who has shown very little in four starts to date and now steps up markedly in trip with first-time headgear. The yard has a 0% strike rate from 11 runs at Navan while the jockey records a solid 8% strike rate from 89 rides here.
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21Morning Approach38/100
Morning Approach is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. Only one previous run at Navan and no win in three tries at this trip. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at the track but this 8-year-old brings little to the table on current ratings.
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22Thegooseiscooked38/100
Thegooseiscooked is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and is drawn widest of all from stall 19. He has placed twice at Navan without winning and holds a modest record on good ground. Trainer's poor 4% strike rate at the track is another negative.
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23Connova36/100
Connova is a limited performer who has shown consistent but modest form this year, finishing in the frame on three of her last four starts without looking like winning. The step up to this trip poses a fresh question and the wide draw in stall 12 is no help on a track where her trainer operates at a 5% strike rate from 139 runs. The jockey also records a 5% strike rate from 502 rides here.
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24He Knows When35/100
He Knows When is a limited performer who has been consistent enough to place on his last three completed starts without ever looking like winning. He has shown some ability around this track and on this sort of ground, but the yard's record here is poor and the jockey's long-term strike-rate is modest. Trip looks about right and he has placed form over it, yet overall he remains vulnerable to anything with a bit more class.
KTB verdict
Millhone stands out as the KTB Selection. A modest but consistent performer, he has been placed on his only visit to Navan and brings three seconds from his last five starts into this steadily-run handicap where his late run could be well timed. The first-time headgear and drop back in trip are unknowns, yet his overall profile fits the race better than most in a field of limited sorts. The main dangers are Wingit, who brings solid trainer and jockey records to his first run at the track, and Deuteronomy, who has course experience and a placed record at the trip even if his recent form is modest.
KTB Selection Millhone
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:26 UTC, 5 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Millhone | 7/2 | Bet365 |
| Wingit | 25/1 | Bet Victor |
| Deuteronomy | 20/1 | BetTom |
| Nibras Rainbow | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Strike De Vega | 40/1 | Bet365 |
| Trishuli River | 20/1 | Bet365 |
| Ballaghkeen | 28/1 | BetTom |
| Miss Crinshawn | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Tickle The Cat | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Keilah | 14/1 | BetTom |
| Due In June | 20/1 | Bet365 |
| Sunny Dude | 50/1 | William Hill |
| Queen Leila | 28/1 | BetTom |
| Onyeisi | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Arizona Star | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Captain Con | 9/1 | BetTom |
| Cadreville | 10/1 | BoyleSports |
| Borora Aura | 20/1 | BetTom |
| Carrickfinn | 50/1 | BoyleSports |
| Emily's Boy | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Morning Approach | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Thegooseiscooked | 25/1 | Bet Victor |
| Connova | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| He Knows When | 40/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 4:55 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Millhone the selection despite never having tried this trip before?
Millhone is a modest performer who has been consistent of late with three seconds from his last five starts including when placed on his only visit to this track, and the trainer has a solid 14% strike rate here from 14 runs.
How will the lack of an obvious leader affect the race?
The pace shape lacks a leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay dividends.
Which horses are trying first-time headgear?
Millhone, Miss Crinshawn, Keilah, Due In June, Captain Con, Cadreville and Emily's Boy are all wearing first-time headgear.
Who has the strongest course record among the principals?
Millhone has run once here and finished second while Deuteronomy has run once here and finished fifth; the other three principals have no course form on record.
Which trainers have the best strike rates at Navan in this field?
Charles Weld has a 14% strike rate at Navan from 14 runs, Patrick Magee has 11% from 57 runs, and Noel Meade has 13% from 1808 runs.
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