5:40 Kilbeggan
The 5:40 at Kilbeggan is Division One of the Massey Ferguson Johnston Farm Equipment Longford Handicap Hurdle, a 2m2f200y contest on good ground featuring a field of 19. With no obvious leader and a pace shape that suggests a steadily-run, tactical affair, being handy is expected to pay dividends. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Malbas heading the numbers at 60, followed closely by Demanding Gerry (59) and Friar Hogan (58), indicating a competitive heat where course experience, trip suitability and the first-time headgear applied to several runners will be key factors.
How the race shapes up
The race lacks a clear leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which prominent racers or those who can get handy should hold an edge. Several runners, including the selection Malbas, Demanding Gerry and Friar Hogan, have shown the ability to race in the front half of the field, while hold-up types such as Mambo Du Large, Sneddy Eddie and Dream Shaper will need the race to fall right. The key question is whether the lack of pace allows the prominent runners to dictate matters or if the hold-up performers can land a blow late in a race where positioning looks set to be decisive.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Malbas KTB Selection60/100Useful performer who has won once from six starts at Kilbeggan.
- 2Demanding Gerry59/100Fair performer who has run well in defeat on both starts this season and finished second when last seen here over hurdles.
- 3Friar Hogan58/100Useful performer who has shown enough in recent runs to suggest he can be competitive here.
- 4Flash The Badge53/100Flash The Badge has shown very little in five starts to date and arrives here off the back of four duck eggs.
- 5Mambo Du Large52/100Mambo Du Large holds a useful level of ability on paper but has shown very little in three starts, finishing pulled up on debut and then beaten a long way in tw…
- 6King Of The Greys51/100Useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history.
- 7Whispering Willow50/100Whispering Willow is a useful performer on the balance of her ratings and recent form that includes two wins and a third from her last four starts.
- 8I'm Flattered49/100Useful performer who has already won over this track.
- 9Barrogstown Girl48/100Fair mare who has shown consistent but limited ability and looks stretched by this step up in trip.
- 10Backinabit47/100Fair performer who has shown mixed form this year with a win and two pulled-ups from three starts.
- 11Finnicky Filly47/100Finnicky Filly is a fair mare who has shown some ability around here, finishing second once in four runs at Kilbeggan.
- 12Il Pirata46/100Il Pirata is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history.
- 13Circus Act44/100Useful performer who has shown bits of form without winning for some time.
- 14Sneddy Eddie44/100Sneddy Eddie is a fair sort who has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts.
- 15Burlington House43/100Useful performer who has shown some ability on the Flat but has struggled to make an impact in five hurdle starts.
- 16Movie King42/100Movie King is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing second and third in recent visits.
- 17Dark Berkshire38/100Fair performer who has struggled since an early promise, finishing down the field in all five starts this year including two modest efforts here.
- 18Surviving Murmansk36/100Fair performer who has run twice at Kilbeggan without winning, finishing second and fourth.
- 19Dream Shaper36/100Fair handicapper who ran creditably when third on return at this track last month.
The contenders
Malbas KTB Fit 60/100
Malbas is a useful performer who has won once from six starts at Kilbeggan. He has dropped back in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance last time. The yard holds a solid 13% strike rate at the track from eight runs while the jockey operates at an 8% strike rate from 13 rides here. With recent form figures of 898-09 he arrives with questions to answer on bare form yet his course record and the trainer's local record lend him plenty of appeal in a race where being handy should pay. As the top-rated on KTB Fit he is taken to put it all together.
Demanding Gerry KTB Fit 59/100
Demanding Gerry is a fair performer who has run well in defeat on both starts this season and finished second when last seen here over hurdles. He steps up in trip today having already shown he stays this sort of distance, while first-time headgear is an interesting addition that could sharpen him further. The trainer has an 18% strike rate at Kilbeggan from 22 runs and the jockey has a 10% record from 20 rides at the track. Recent form of 220-24 underlines his consistency and his placed effort on this course adds to his claims in what looks a suitable race.
Friar Hogan KTB Fit 58/100
Friar Hogan is a useful performer who has shown enough in recent runs to suggest he can be competitive here. The drop back in trip poses a fresh question while first-time headgear is another unknown that could help him get more out of himself. Both trainer and jockey have solid records at Kilbeggan, the yard at 13% from 87 runs and the rider at 10% from 165 rides. With form figures of 60-0C2 he enters the race in reasonable order and his ability on paper makes him one of the main players in a tactical affair.
Flash The Badge KTB Fit 53/100
Flash The Badge has shown very little in five starts to date and arrives here off the back of four duck eggs. He is a useful performer on the ratings but that mark looks flattering given the bare form. The step up in trip is an unknown and the trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Kilbeggan from 157 runs is another negative. Recent form of 0000-7 offers little encouragement and he will need to improve markedly to figure in this contest.
Mambo Du Large KTB Fit 52/100
Mambo Du Large holds a useful level of ability on paper but has shown very little in three starts, finishing pulled up on debut and then beaten a long way in two handicaps. The step up in trip is an unknown and first-time headgear is now fitted in a bid to spark improvement. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has no strong course or going data to lean on and the trainer has no record at Kilbeggan from nine runs. With only three runs in the book this remains a low-confidence profile that needs to be treated with caution.
The rest of the field
King Of The GreysKTB Fit 51/100
King Of The Greys is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He steps up in trip today to a distance he has not tried before and goes in first-time headgear after a patchy recent record of 408-8P. The yard has an 8% strike rate from 74 runs at Kilbeggan while the jockey is 4% from 49 rides here.
Whispering WillowKTB Fit 50/100
Whispering Willow is a useful performer on the balance of her ratings and recent form that includes two wins and a third from her last four starts. She steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge on her one previous attempt at this distance while her three runs on good ground have also failed to produce a win or a place. The trainer has an 11% strike rate from 236 runs here and the jockey an 8% strike rate from 39 rides.
I'm FlatteredKTB Fit 49/100
I'm Flattered is a useful performer who has already won over this track. He steps up in trip today having shown little on his most recent starts and has never placed on good ground in six attempts. First-time headgear is now applied while both trainer and jockey have respectable but unspectacular records here.
Barrogstown GirlKTB Fit 48/100
Barrogstown Girl is a fair mare who has shown consistent but limited ability and looks stretched by this step up in trip. She has won twice on good ground from eight attempts and the yard and jockey both have modest records at Kilbeggan. First run here adds an unknown.
BackinabitKTB Fit 47/100
Backinabit is a fair performer who has shown mixed form this year with a win and two pulled-ups from three starts. Steps up in trip for the first time today while wearing headgear for the first time, which adds unknowns. Trainer has a solid 11% strike rate from 208 runs at Kilbeggan.
Finnicky FillyKTB Fit 47/100
Finnicky Filly is a fair mare who has shown some ability around here, finishing second once in four runs at Kilbeggan. She drops back in trip today having been placed at this distance before, though her four runs on good ground have produced no win or place. The first-time headgear is an unknown and the trainer's modest 8% strike rate at the track tempers expectations, even if the jockey's 18% record from a small sample is respectable.
Il PirataKTB Fit 46/100
Il Pirata is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He steps up in trip today for the first time having last run over 2m so this distance asks a fresh question. The trainer has a 5% strike rate from 19 runs at Kilbeggan.
Circus ActKTB Fit 44/100
Circus Act is a useful performer who has shown bits of form without winning for some time. Steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 1m4f and is tried in first-time headgear. Trainer has a modest 4% strike rate here while the jockey records a solid 10%.
Sneddy EddieKTB Fit 44/100
Sneddy Eddie is a fair sort who has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts. He steps up in trip today wearing headgear for the first time while making his first visit to Kilbeggan. The trainer holds an 11% strike rate here from 657 runs and the jockey is operating at 16% from 115 rides. Usually held up and producing effort late.
Burlington HouseKTB Fit 43/100
Burlington House is a useful performer who has shown some ability on the Flat but has struggled to make an impact in five hurdle starts. Steps up markedly in trip today while wearing headgear for the first time, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Kilbeggan.
Movie KingKTB Fit 42/100
Movie King is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing second and third in recent visits. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question, while the first-time headgear is another unknown. The trainer and jockey both have a 0% strike rate at Kilbeggan from double-figure attempts.
Dark BerkshireKTB Fit 38/100
Dark Berkshire is a fair performer who has struggled since an early promise, finishing down the field in all five starts this year including two modest efforts here. Steps up in trip for the first time in headgear while the trainer and jockey both hold modest records at Kilbeggan. Going form offers no encouragement on this ground.
Surviving MurmanskKTB Fit 36/100
Surviving Murmansk is a fair performer who has run twice at Kilbeggan without winning, finishing second and fourth. Steps up in trip today having last run over 1m4f and shown no success in two previous attempts at this distance. Trainer is 0-23 at the track while the jockey holds an 11% strike rate here from 207 rides.
Dream ShaperKTB Fit 36/100
Dream Shaper is a fair handicapper who ran creditably when third on return at this track last month. Has struggled to build on that in the past though and the first-time headgear is a sign they are reaching for something extra. Trainer's modest record here adds to the reservations. Usually held up and producing effort late.
KTB verdict
Malbas is the KTB Selection. A useful performer with a win at this track from six starts, he drops back in trip after being placed without winning at this distance last time out and the trainer's solid 13% strike rate at Kilbeggan adds to his appeal. In a steadily-run affair where being handy should pay, he can put his course knowledge to good use. Main dangers are Demanding Gerry, who has run well in defeat this season and finished second here, and Friar Hogan, who has shown enough recently to suggest competitiveness despite the unknowns of trip and first-time headgear.
KTB Selection Malbas
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 24 Jul. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Malbas | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Demanding Gerry | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Friar Hogan | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| Flash The Badge | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Mambo Du Large | 25/1 | BetTom |
| King Of The Greys | 20/1 | Bet365 |
| Whispering Willow | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| I'm Flattered | 14/1 | BetTom |
| Barrogstown Girl | 17/2 | BresBet |
| Backinabit | 5/1 | BresBet |
| Finnicky Filly | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Il Pirata | 25/1 | BetTom |
| Circus Act | 9/1 | BresBet |
| Sneddy Eddie | 8/1 | Bet365 |
| Burlington House | 9/1 | BresBet |
| Movie King | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Dark Berkshire | 33/1 | BresBet |
| Surviving Murmansk | 33/1 | BresBet |
| Dream Shaper | 15/2 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 5:40 Kilbeggan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kilbeggan racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Kilbeggan among the principals?
Malbas, who has won once from six starts at the track.
How many of the 19 runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Ten runners are wearing first-time headgear: Demanding Gerry, Friar Hogan, Mambo Du Large, King Of The Greys, I'm Flattered, Backinabit, Finnicky Filly, Circus Act, Sneddy Eddie, Burlington House, Movie King, Dark Berkshire and Dream Shaper.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Kilbeggan in this field?
James Andrew Fahey has an 18% strike rate at Kilbeggan from 22 runs with Demanding Gerry.
What does the pace shape suggest about how the race will be run?
The race lacks a leader so it is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which runners are noted as usually held up?
Mambo Du Large, Sneddy Eddie and Dream Shaper are noted as usually held up and producing their effort late.
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