8:30 Kilbeggan
A 17-runner 0-102 handicap chase over 2m4f85y at Kilbeggan on good ground looks a typically competitive summer handicap with little to choose between several runners on official ratings. The KTB Fit scores identify a clear top five, headed by the selection Island McCoo on 67, with the next four all between 53 and 62. With the pace shape rated unclear and low confidence, the race lacks a strong pace map and could develop into a tactical affair where positioning and the first-time headgear on several runners may prove influential.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with insufficient run-style data across the field to form a confident view. Mercurial Sea is the only horse noted as tending to make the running or race prominently, though the evidence is limited. This lack of defined front-runners suggests a race that could be decided by mid-race manoeuvring and which horses handle the good ground and track best, posing the key question of whether any prominent runner can dictate terms or if the race will be won from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Island McCoo KTB Selection67/100Fair performer who has won once from five runs at Kilbeggan and is placed three times from six starts at today's trip.
- 2Ixigreczed62/100Fair performer who has won once from two starts at Kilbeggan.
- 3Luimneach58/100Useful performer who has run twice at Kilbeggan without placing.
- 4Kilashee55/100Kilashee is a fair 11-year-old who knows his way around this track with a win from five runs here.
- 5Mercurial Sea53/100Mercurial Sea is a useful performer who has been knocking at the door lately with placed efforts on his last two starts.
- 6Big Island50/100Big Island is a useful performer with solid placed form at this track and a clear drop back in trip that could suit after his last run over 2m7½f.
- 7Doyen Magic50/100Doyen Magic is a useful performer who won on his only previous visit to Kilbeggan and has solid placed form at today's trip.
- 8Walkmethroughit50/100Walkmethroughit has shown little spark in recent starts with a string of pulled-up efforts and now drops back in trip having failed to make an impact at this di…
- 9Syracus Du Houx49/100Syracus Du Houx is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history.
- 10My Cullen48/100Fair performer who has been struggling for form this year with a string of modest efforts.
- 11Hurricane Honey47/100Useful mare who has run creditably at this track before but has failed to build on that in two starts this season.
- 12Watty Show47/100Fair performer who has struggled to make an impact this year with recent form reading 7P0-78.
- 13Love Like This47/100Fair performer who has won once and placed twice from four runs at Kilbeggan.
- 14Ferdia45/100Fair sort who has placed here without winning and drops back in trip having last run over further.
- 15My Policy44/100My Policy is a fair performer who has shown his best at this track with a second here and has also placed twice on good ground.
- 16Battle Of Benburb42/100Fair performer who has been out of form for some time with five poor efforts on his last five starts.
- 17My Good Pal42/100My Good Pal is a fair performer who has placed at this track and shown competitive form on good ground.
The contenders
Island McCoo KTB Fit 67/100
Island McCoo is a fair performer who has won once from five runs at Kilbeggan and is placed three times from six starts at today's trip. He drops back from 3m1f having shown his best recent form when winning over 2m4f on good ground in March before a lesser effort last time. First-time headgear is now applied. The trainer has a 21% strike rate at Kilbeggan with an A/E of 1.86 from 14 runs, while the jockey has a 19% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.24 from 16 rides. He has been placed three times from eight starts on good ground without winning, and his recent form reads 8-4218.
Ixigreczed KTB Fit 62/100
Ixigreczed is a fair performer who has won once from two starts at Kilbeggan. Recent form is poor and he has never placed in six runs on good ground. First-time headgear is now reached for as he steps up in trip. The trainer has a 13% strike rate at the track from eight runs with an A/E of 2.55. The jockey has a 50% strike rate at Kilbeggan with an A/E of 3.26 from two rides. His recent form figures are 06-005.
Luimneach KTB Fit 58/100
Luimneach is a useful performer who has run twice at Kilbeggan without placing. He has shown some competitiveness on good ground and has placed twice at today's trip, though he remains winless at both. First-time headgear is now applied. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Kilbeggan with an A/E of 1.19 from 71 runs, while the jockey has a 6% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.79 from 33 rides. The trainer and jockey combined record at the course is 20/316 (6%) with an A/E of 0.93. His recent form reads U02P-5.
Kilashee KTB Fit 55/100
Kilashee is a fair 11-year-old who knows his way around this track with a win from five runs here. He has been out of form lately with two pulled-ups but drops back in trip to a distance at which he has placed three times from 12 starts. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Kilbeggan with an A/E of 0.86 from 320 runs, while the jockey has an 18% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.56 from 11 rides. Their combined record is 8/76 (11%) with an A/E of 1.00. He has two wins from nine starts on good ground with five placed efforts, and his recent form is 067-PP.
Mercurial Sea KTB Fit 53/100
Mercurial Sea is a useful performer who has been knocking at the door lately with placed efforts on his last two starts. He acts on good ground having been placed four times from six runs on it though he is yet to win on this surface. Stepping up in trip today asks a fresh question while the trainer's modest 3% strike rate at Kilbeggan from 33 runs adds a note of caution. He tends to make the running or race on the pace. His recent form reads 86-282 and he has no course form on record.
The rest of the field
Big IslandKTB Fit 50/100
Big Island is a useful performer with solid placed form at this track and a clear drop back in trip that could suit after his last run over 2m7½f. He has shown only one win from 15 runs on good ground and his recent efforts have been modest. The first-time headgear is an unknown and the trainer's poor 0% strike-rate from 21 runs here adds a negative. Recent form is P0F-49.
Doyen MagicKTB Fit 50/100
Doyen Magic is a useful performer who won on his only previous visit to Kilbeggan and has solid placed form at today's trip. He has been out of sorts on his last two starts and the trainer's modest 6% strike rate at the track is another negative. The 7 lb claimer is also still seeking a first course winner from five rides. Recent form reads P22-50.
WalkmethroughitKTB Fit 50/100
Walkmethroughit has shown little spark in recent starts with a string of pulled-up efforts and now drops back in trip having failed to make an impact at this distance before. The fair level of ability he showed earlier in his career gives him a baseline but he arrives with plenty to prove on current form. Trainer has no recorded runners at Kilbeggan. Recent form is 877PP-.
Syracus Du HouxKTB Fit 49/100
Syracus Du Houx is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He steps up in trip today having been placed once at this distance without winning, though his record on good ground is modest with no placed efforts from two runs. The trainer has a 3% strike rate from 66 runs at Kilbeggan while the jockey is 5% from 276 rides here. Recent form is 7/078-.
My CullenKTB Fit 48/100
My Cullen is a fair performer who has been struggling for form this year with a string of modest efforts. Drops back in trip today having looked stretched over further last time, while first-time headgear is now applied in a bid to spark some improvement. Trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Kilbeggan from a large sample suggests this is not his strongest track. Recent form is 0-F905.
Hurricane HoneyKTB Fit 47/100
Hurricane Honey is a useful mare who has run creditably at this track before but has failed to build on that in two starts this season. She stays the trip without ever looking well suited by it and her record on good ground is only modest. First-time headgear is now fitted. Recent form is 720-70.
Watty ShowKTB Fit 47/100
Watty Show is a fair performer who has struggled to make an impact this year with recent form reading 7P0-78. Drops back in trip having been well held over further last time and has no win or place from two runs on good ground. Trainer has a solid 18% strike rate at Kilbeggan from 370 runs while the jockey is operating at 11% from 207 rides here.
Love Like ThisKTB Fit 47/100
Love Like This is a fair performer who has won once and placed twice from four runs at Kilbeggan. Recent form is patchy but he has been competitive on good ground without winning and has placed form at today's shorter trip. Trainer and jockey both operate at modest strike rates here. Recent form is 053143.
FerdiaKTB Fit 45/100
Ferdia is a fair sort who has placed here without winning and drops back in trip having last run over further. He has shown bits and pieces this year but the recent form figures suggest he is struggling to put it all together. Trainer has a modest record at the track while the claiming jockey is still seeking a first Kilbeggan winner from five rides. Recent form is P9-687.
My PolicyKTB Fit 44/100
My Policy is a fair performer who has shown his best at this track with a second here and has also placed twice on good ground. He has been placed on his last two completed starts yet remains winless after 13 runs and has failed to land a blow in three attempts at this trip. First-time headgear is now applied while both trainer and jockey remain without a winner at Kilbeggan. Recent form is 5P82/P.
Battle Of BenburbKTB Fit 42/100
Battle Of Benburb is a fair performer who has been out of form for some time with five poor efforts on his last five starts. He has shown some ability at this trip and on good ground but only managed seventh on his sole visit to Kilbeggan. First-time headgear is now applied. Recent form is PP7PP-.
My Good PalKTB Fit 42/100
My Good Pal is a fair performer who has placed at this track and shown competitive form on good ground. He has won over today's trip in the past and steps back up in distance after a recent run over 2m3½f, though his recent form of 85-2U8 is patchy. First-time headgear is now applied while the trainer holds an 11% strike rate here from 236 runs and the jockey is 0-10 at the course.
KTB verdict
Island McCoo stands out as the KTB Selection. A fair performer with a win at the track and strong placed form at the trip, he showed his best recent form when successful over 2m4f on good ground in March and now returns with the added help of first-time headgear. The trainer and jockey both have solid strike rates at Kilbeggan which further strengthens the case. Main dangers include Ixigreczed, who has a good record at the venue despite poor recent form, and Luimneach, a useful performer who could improve with headgear. Kilashee and Mercurial Sea also hold each-way claims if they can bounce back to their best.
KTB Selection Island McCoo
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 24 Jul. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Island McCoo | 8/1 | William Hill |
| Ixigreczed | 14/1 | William Hill |
| Luimneach | 7/1 | BetTom |
| Kilashee | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Mercurial Sea | 11/1 | BetTom |
| Big Island | 11/1 | William Hill |
| Doyen Magic | 9/1 | BetTom |
| Walkmethroughit | 40/1 | William Hill |
| Syracus Du Houx | 11/1 | William Hill |
| My Cullen | 18/1 | William Hill |
| Hurricane Honey | 10/1 | BetTom |
| Watty Show | 7/1 | William Hill |
| Love Like This | 3/1 | BetTom |
| Ferdia | 16/1 | BetTom |
| My Policy | 18/1 | William Hill |
| Battle Of Benburb | 40/1 | William Hill |
| My Good Pal | 8/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 8:30 Kilbeggan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kilbeggan racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the only one noted as tending to make the running or race prominently?
Mercurial Sea tends to make the running or race on the pace, though the evidence is limited.
How many of the 17 runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Nine runners are wearing first-time headgear: Island McCoo, Ixigreczed, Luimneach, Big Island, My Cullen, Hurricane Honey, My Policy, Battle Of Benburb and My Good Pal.
Which horse has the strongest jockey strike rate at Kilbeggan among the principals?
Ixigreczed's jockey has a 50% strike rate at Kilbeggan with an A/E of 3.26 from two rides.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Kilbeggan in the entire field?
Donncha Duggan, trainer of Island McCoo, has a 21% strike rate at Kilbeggan with an A/E of 1.86 from 14 runs.
How many horses in the field have previously won at Kilbeggan?
Five horses have won at Kilbeggan: Island McCoo (1 from 5), Ixigreczed (1 from 2), Kilashee (1 from 5), Doyen Magic (1 from 1) and Love Like This (1 from 4).
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