5:45 Nottingham
This Class 4 nursery handicap over 1m75y at Nottingham features a very small field of just two runners on good to firm ground. Both horses are dropping in class and stepping up to a mile for the first time, which introduces fresh stamina questions. The KTB Fit scores place Time For The Moon ahead on 56 with Apulia Bay on 44, yet the overall numbers reflect modest performers in an inconclusive race.
How the race shapes up
With only two runners the pace shape is unclear and confidence in predicting it is low. Time For The Moon tends to make the running or race prominently while Apulia Bay is usually held up and produces his effort late, though there is limited evidence for the latter. The key question is how the race will unfold tactically given the lack of supporting runners and the unknown stamina of both at the new trip.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Time For The Moon KTB Selection56/100Fair performer who has shown mixed form, winning once but finishing down the field on his last two starts.
- 2Apulia Bay44/100Apulia Bay has shown fair ability in two runs to date, finishing third on debut then second last time out.
The contenders
Time For The Moon KTB Fit 56/100
Time For The Moon is a fair performer who has shown mixed form, winning once but finishing down the field on his last two starts. He is dropping in class today and steps up to 1m for the first time, which asks a fresh question of his stamina. The Charlie Johnston and Callum Shepherd combination carries a 19/122 (16%) record with an A/E of 1.06 and +£20.00 LSP. Johnston's own 4% strike rate at Nottingham from 50 runs offers little encouragement, though Shepherd has a stronger 17% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.42 from 93 rides. He has had two runs on good to firm without winning or placing and has no previous course form. His front-running style could prove influential in such a small field.
Apulia Bay KTB Fit 44/100
Apulia Bay has shown fair ability in two runs to date, finishing third on debut then second last time out. He too is dropping in class and steps up to 1m for the first time, posing a fresh stamina question while the going remains something of an unknown with only two runs on his record. The Simon & Ed Crisford yard post a 15% strike rate at Nottingham from 80 runs and team up with James Doyle, who has a 21% strike rate at the venue with an A/E of 1.02 from 330 rides. Their overall trainer-jockey record stands at 68/321 (21%) with an A/E of 0.87 and -£54.11 LSP. He is held up in his races and produces his effort late, though the evidence for that is limited.
KTB verdict
Time For The Moon is the KTB Selection. He brings a win to the table and his prominent running style may prove an asset in this two-runner affair, even if the step up to a mile asks a new question. The trainer's modest record at Nottingham is a concern, yet the combination with Callum Shepherd and his higher KTB Fit score of 56 give him the edge. Apulia Bay is the clear main danger, showing fair form in both starts and benefiting from the booking of James Doyle for a yard with a solid Nottingham record.
KTB Selection Time For The Moon
This is the narrative read of the 5:45 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Time For The Moon rated higher than Apulia Bay despite his recent form?
Time For The Moon has a KTB Fit score of 56 compared with Apulia Bay's 44, and he already has a win on his record while being the KTB Selection.
What does the pace shape suggest for this race?
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence as there is not enough run-style evidence across the small field to read the pace with confidence.
How does the trainer's Nottingham record compare for the two runners?
Charlie Johnston has a 4% strike rate at Nottingham from 50 runs with an A/E of 0.3, while Simon & Ed Crisford have a 15% strike rate from 80 runs with an A/E of 0.76.
What are the jockeys' Nottingham records in this race?
Callum Shepherd has a 17% strike rate at Nottingham from 93 rides with an A/E of 1.42, while James Doyle has a 21% strike rate from 330 rides with an A/E of 1.02.
What common factor applies to both runners regarding trip and class?
Both horses are dropping in class and stepping up to 1m for the first time today.
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