7:15 Nottingham
This Class 6 handicap over 1m2f50y at Nottingham on good to firm ground brings together eight modest performers in a race that lacks any obvious pace influence. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 56 and 44, underlining the competitive but limited nature of the field. With no confirmed leader, the contest looks set to be tactical, and several runners step up in trip while others try first-time headgear.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of any obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run affair where being handy on the turn could prove advantageous. Most of the field are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the race is likely to develop into a test of timing from off the pace. The key question will be whether any horse can quicken effectively off a modest gallop or if those positioned closer to the steady tempo will hold the call in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Beauty Generation KTB Selection56/100Limited horse who has mixed form this year but showed his best side when winning over this trip at this track last season.
- 2Daretobedifferent54/100Modest performer who has won once in two runs here and is well suited by the track.
- 3Midnight Media53/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency lately with form figures of 949212 and a placed effort at today's trip on his only attempt.
- 4Katalyst51/100Modest performer who has shown some spark at this track, finishing second and fourth from three runs here.
- 5Bradbury50/100Modest performer with a solid recent record of 221163 that includes two wins.
- 6Diane Chasseresse50/100Modest performer who has shown steady but unremarkable form in three starts so far, finishing no better than sixth.
- 7The Anthony Gover45/100Modest performer who has shown bits and pieces without really threatening to win in six starts.
- 8Tommo's Ginjaninja44/100Modest performer who has shown bits of ability on his better days but has been below form on his last two starts.
The contenders
Beauty Generation KTB Fit 56/100
Beauty Generation is a limited performer who has shown mixed form this year yet produced his best effort when winning over this trip at Nottingham last season. He steps back up in distance having looked as though the drop to 1m1f came too soon on his most recent start, while first-time headgear is now applied as a positive. The Ross Burdon yard posts a 20% strike rate at the track from a small sample with an A/E of 1.54, and Callum Shepherd, who has a 17% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.42, takes the ride. Beauty Generation has a course record of one win from three starts and has scored once from six runs on good to firm. Usually held up, he is expected to come from off the pace in what should be a steadily-run race.
Daretobedifferent KTB Fit 54/100
Daretobedifferent is a modest performer who has won once from two starts at Nottingham and is clearly well suited by the track. His recent form has been patchy, with a best of sixth on his latest outing, but he has placed twice from six starts on good to firm ground. The D Donovan yard holds a 13% strike rate at the venue with an A/E of 1.2, and Marco Ghiani, boasting a 15% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.03, is in the saddle. This three-year-old now steps up to this new trip for the first time, which poses a fresh question. Usually held up, he will be produced late in a race that lacks an obvious leader.
Midnight Media KTB Fit 53/100
Midnight Media is a modest performer who has displayed consistency of late with form figures of 949212, including a placed effort at today's trip on his only attempt over the distance. He has handled good to firm ground in the past although remains without a win on it from two starts. The William Muir and Chris Grassick operation has a 21% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 2.07 from 38 runs, while Tom Marquand, who has a 12% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.8, rides. The yard and jockey combination shows a 4/30 record with an A/E of 1.01 and positive LSP of +£10.30. Usually held up, he will look to produce his effort late off what is expected to be a steady gallop.
Katalyst KTB Fit 51/100
Katalyst is a modest performer who has shown some spark at this track, finishing second and fourth from three runs here without winning. He has placed once from two starts on good to firm ground and now tries first-time headgear following a string of ordinary efforts. The William Muir and Chris Grassick yard again holds a strong 21% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 2.07 from 38 runs. Ryan Kavanagh, who has a 0% strike rate at the venue from 15 rides with an A/E of 0, takes the mount for the yard and jockey combination that is 2/14 with an A/E of 1.06. Usually held up, he will be ridden for a late effort in a tactical contest.
The rest of the field
BradburyKTB Fit 50/100
Bradbury is a modest performer with a solid recent record of 221163 that includes two wins. He steps up in trip for the first time today having failed to place in three previous attempts at this distance, though the Edward Bethell yard's 23% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.23 offers some encouragement. First-time headgear is applied and he has a record of one win from 12 starts on good to firm with three places. He has run once here, finishing fifth.
Diane ChasseresseKTB Fit 50/100
Diane Chasseresse is a modest performer who has shown steady but unremarkable form in three starts so far, finishing no better than sixth. Owen Burrows has a solid 26% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.17 from 53 runs, and Callum Rodriguez, with a 15% strike rate here and an A/E of 0.8, takes the ride for a yard and jockey combination that is 19/66 with an A/E of 1.26 and positive LSP of +£27.79. She steps up markedly in trip today, which asks a fresh question, while the going remains an unknown on such limited evidence.
The Anthony GoverKTB Fit 45/100
The Anthony Gover is a modest performer who has shown bits and pieces without really threatening to win in six starts. He steps up in trip today for the first time and tries first-time headgear, both unknowns that could help or hinder. The Dr Richard Newland and Jamie Insole yard has a modest 3% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 0.21 from 34 runs, though Jack Doughty has a 23% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.79. The yard and jockey combination is 5/66 with an A/E of 0.55. He has run twice on good to firm without winning or placing.
Tommo's GinjaninjaKTB Fit 44/100
Tommo's Ginjaninja is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability on his better days but has been below form on his last two starts. He steps up in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance on his one previous attempt. The Michael and David Easterby yard has a modest 7% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 0.66 from 86 runs, and Joanna Mason, with an 8% strike rate here and an A/E of 0.71, rides. He has placed once from two starts on good to firm.
KTB verdict
Beauty Generation is the KTB Selection. He showed his best side when winning over this trip at this track last season, steps back up in distance having looked as though the drop to 1m1f came too soon last time, and first-time headgear is another plus in a steadily-run race where being produced late should suit. The trainer's solid record at Nottingham and the jockey's knowledge of the track add further layers of confidence. His main dangers are the consistent Midnight Media, who has shown recent placed form at the trip, the track-suited Daretobedifferent, and Katalyst, who has sparked at the venue and now tries headgear.
KTB Selection Beauty Generation
This is the narrative read of the 7:15 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-and-distance winning form?
Beauty Generation won over this trip at Nottingham last season and has a course record of one win from three starts.
How many runners are trying first-time headgear?
Four runners are trying first-time headgear: Beauty Generation, Katalyst, Bradbury and The Anthony Gover.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Nottingham in this field?
Owen Burrows has a 26% strike rate at Nottingham from 53 runs.
Which horse has the best recent form figures among the principals?
Midnight Media has the recent form figures 949212.
How many of the field are stepping up in trip for the first time?
Daretobedifferent, Bradbury, Diane Chasseresse and The Anthony Gover are all stepping up in trip for the first time.
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